The State of the NYC Mayor's Race
With the first debate tonight, all eyes are on Andrew Cuomo & Zohran Mamdani
The Poll Heard Round The World
Let’s ride the poller-coaster.
One week ago, Emerson College released their latest survey of the Democratic Primary for New York City Mayor.
The poll showed insurgent Zohran Mamdani (22.7%) trailing heavy favorite Andrew Cuomo (35.1%) by only twelve percent in the first round of voting, before ultimately falling short in the final round (following the ranked-choice simulation) by a margin of 54.6% to 46.4%.
The remainder of the survey was far less noteworthy: Comptroller Brad Lander returned to double-digits (10.5%) for the first time since February, Scott Stringer scraped his way to nine-percent, with City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (8.3%) rounding out the top-five. All in all, the race’s multi-month trajectory had barely changed: Cuomo hovered in the mid-thirties (Tier I), Mamdani stormed into the twenties (Tier II), while everyone else remained far behind (Tier III). Nonetheless, this marked the closest survey of the entire campaign, with topline dynamics mirroring an internal poll released by Mamdani’s campaign earlier in the week.
For a brief moment, Andrew Cuomo was no longer inevitable.
Was the close margin an outlier? Or a sign of things to come?
The Cuomo War Room
To be a fly on the wall in the Andrew Cuomo War Room last Wednesday night.
“This Mamdani character, can he actually beat us?”
To say that Cuomo has been coasting — weekly visits to senior centers and Black churches, almost no public events, only four forums appearances (where candidates spoke one-at-a-time, rather than side-by-side), and very few interviews (all lacking tough questions) — would be a gross understatement. And, while said strategy has been rightfully criticized for its cynical nature, one can’t argue with the results, which tap the former three-term Governor as the overwhelming favorite with three weeks remaining. Tonight’s debate is the first time Cuomo will have to face his rivals.
Can the frontrunner run out the clock? Or has hubris made him vulnerable?
To be clear, Andrew Cuomo should still win. His standing remains robust across wide swaths of the outer boroughs, where his electoral coalition is poised to closely resemble that of Eric Adams. Not to mention, the scandal-scarred former Governor has held up relatively well in Manhattan, partially due to his opponents struggling to consolidate anti-Cuomo support amongst wealthy white voters. For months, the frontrunner has been relatively unchallenged on the airwaves (owed to his super PAC’s largess), which, in addition to newly unlocked public matching funds, will ensure Cuomo’s paid media advantage continues through Primary Day. Many of the city’s largest labor unions — headlined by 32BJ, HTC, and 1199 SEIU — have lined up behind the polling leader. A lifetime in New York politics has not only given Cuomo universal name recognition, but decades of networks — clergy and faith leaders, tenant and block associations, Democratic clubhouses — that still retain resonance at the neighborhood-level.
Unlike many of his opponents, Andrew Cuomo has a coherent message: “New York City is in crisis (crime, homelessness, mental illness), and I’m the only one who can fix it. You know me. Remember all that we’ve been through together (COVID Briefings), and all that we’ve accomplished (LaGuardia Airport, Moynihan Train Station, Second Avenue Subway). Your life was better when I was Governor. We got things done. Now, I’ll turn the city around.”
Better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
However, Cuomo’s margin-for-error, as the polls continue to tighten, is not what it once was.
A bruising debate on broadcast television, featuring a largely over-50 audience, risks eroding Cuomo’s greatest advantage: an iron-clad hold on the senior electorate. Could endorsements from AOC and Bernie Sanders spur an earned media tsunami, inoculating Mamdani from the inevitable attacks that will come in the closing days?
The Early Voting electorate (whiter, wealthier, college-educated, under-45) favors the anti-Cuomo coalition, while the Election Day electorate (Black, and Latino, working-class, outer borough) leans towards Cuomo. Indeed, the longer it takes for Cuomo’s voters to reach the ballot box, the more time there is to change their minds. While triple prime voters can be relied upon to show up at the polls, Eric Adams benefited from robust turnout (including from “less frequent” voters) across his core neighborhoods, particularly in Brooklyn and Southeast Queens. As working-class voters further distance themselves from the Democratic Party, can Andrew Cuomo, running a sleepy campaign heavily reliant on paid media, bring out his people?
I’ll leave you with an interesting tidbit from the latest Emerson poll. Of the “Brad Lander Vote” disseminated in the final round of ranked-choice-voting, more than four times as many ballots went to Zohran Mamdani as Andrew Cuomo. That’s a great ratio for Mamdani, and foreshadows white-collar trepidation around the scandal-scarred frontrunner. Indeed, the race’s outcome, as of now, hinges heavily on the dispersion of Lander’s voters. For Mamdani to have a chance at pulling off the upset of the century, he must dominate Cuomo in this runoff (at least 2-to-1), while keeping exhausted ballots to a minimum (sub-30%). While Mamdani clobbered Cuomo head-to-head (41% vs. 10%) among “Lander Voters,” almost half (49%) ranked neither.
The Lane That Never Was
Since the onset of the race, there has been an opening for a center-left technocratic candidate — explicitly anti-Andrew Cuomo, but discernibly more “moderate” than Zohran Mamdani.
With less than three weeks until Primary Day, this avenue is still available, but time is of the essence.
Importantly, there is no one size fits all archetype for this cohort. Neither former Mayor Michael Bloomberg or Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch are particularly charismatic, but their technocratic and non-ideological ethos appeals to voters. Their considerable wealth, and ability to self-fund, can create a political organization from scratch, while funding the television advertisements essential to building out one’s name recognition. Absent financial largess, former Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia was elevated by prestige media, namely an endorsement from The New York Times Editorial Board; this cycle, the Paper of Record is sitting out the Democratic Primary, save for a handful of “experts” publishing brief Opinion pieces on the race. Even a clear-cut progressive, in the mold of Boston Mayor Michelle Wu – Harvard Law alum, mentee of Elizabeth Warren, City Council President, proponent of the Green New Deal — could theoretically satiate this political “lane,” as the talented and charismatic Wu proved in 2021.
Prestige Media (Kathryn Garcia, Brad Lander ‘21)
Vast Financial Resources (Michael Bloomberg, Jessica Tisch)
Charisma, Talent & Elected Experience (Michelle Wu)
Whom, of the current field for New York City Mayor, is checking any of those boxes?
Without The New York Times Editorial Board, earned media has been harder to come by, hamstringing almost all of the non-Cuomo candidates. However, even in this increasingly fractured and frenetic environment, only Zohran Mamdani has adequately harnessed every available medium — YouTube, Substack, Ethnic Press — which the insurgent has then skillfully parlayed into more traditional outlets, like MSNBC and the aforementioned Times.
Every candidate has opted into New York City’s public matching funds program, which has capped their spending at slightly more than eight million dollars. This cycle, no candidate has opted to self-fund. However, only Andrew Cuomo has received a considerable boost from an allied Super PAC, “Fix The City,” which has raised more than ten million dollars, the largest such Independent Expenditure in the city’s history. Airing TV and Digital Ads since April, Super PAC spending has been instrumental in further insulating the frontrunner. Whereas the Pro-Mamdani PAC, “New Yorkers for Lower Costs,” has only raised a fraction of the aforementioned eight-figure haul.
As for the latter trio — Charisma, Talent, and Elected Experience — who fits the bill?
Zellnor Myrie, a four-term State Senator from Central Brooklyn, was always hard-pressed to emerge as the competence candidate versus a field that included: the past and current Comptroller, the City Council Speaker, and three-term former Governor. Furthermore, Myrie has struggled to build a base (and brand) beyond the media class, and remains a cautionary tale of the limits of “Abundance” politics. Unfortunately, the median voter is not Matt Yglesias.
Scott Stringer received his best poll of the cycle, albeit at only nine-percent. His pollster, Evan Roth Smith, articulated the dynamic that has befallen the non-Cuomo, non-Mamdani candidates, rather well. Stringer’s TV ad, where he calls Donald Trump a “schmuck,” was genuinely good (and very on-brand). Nonetheless, Stringer is facing a deficit of institutional support; once the darling of the left, the former Comptroller has been shunned by the progressive establishment. For an improbable last-minute rise into contention, Stringer would need Cuomo to catastrophically implode. Not impossible, but increasingly unlikely.
This has not been the campaign Brad Lander envisioned. The progressive-left coalition, once destined to line up behind the Comptroller, has been usurped by Zohran Mamdani, culminating in the latter securing the Working Families Party’s #1 ranking last Friday. Surely, AOC is next. What’s the move for Brad? If the Lander War Room squints — there may be a path forward. Per the Emerson poll, in the penultimate round of ranked-choice-voting, Lander only trails Mamdani by nine points: the same margin that Mamdani trails Cuomo in the final round. However, peeling votes from Mamdani would be difficult and messy, meaning Lander will likely channel his inner Kathryn Garcia, with the hope of replicating her strong performance in Manhattan, and ultimately bank on RCV to surpass the polarizing socialist in second-place. Recently, the father of two has leaned back into the humanizing content that was a hallmark of his run for Comptroller. With twenty days remaining, I’d play up this angle. A family man who will take care of the city.
The best positioned to make a late surge into the top-three? Adrienne Adams. The City Council Speaker just unlocked matching funds, a critical $2M+ infusion that ensures the necessary liquidity for TV advertisements. A strong spot (featuring key surrogate Attorney General Letitia “Tish” James) could not only peel Black voters away from Andrew Cuomo, but buoy the Southeast Queens native into double-digits. Friendly to both the activist left and business interests, the Speaker retains the broad-based appeal invaluable in a ranked-choice-voting system. Against Andrew Cuomo, she may be the most formidable candidate, but reaching the final round will be the challenge. To have a chance, Adrienne Adams will need to edge Cuomo across outer borough Black neighborhoods, hope Mamdani encounters a hard-ceiling, and overperform expectations in Manhattan.
Inevitably, we are brought back to Zohran Mamdani.
Mamdani is undeniably charismatic and talented, but the thirty-three year old’s experience, or lack thereof, has emerged as the de-facto demerit against him. Critics assail Mamdani as “the next Brandon Johnson,” Chicago’s left-leaning Mayor whose alarmingly low approval rating is only rivaled by the Peruvian President. While the Windy City’s size, municipal structure, and political dynamics bear close resemblance to that of New York City, the far more apt comparison for Mamdani is Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, who also campaigned on expanding rent-control and fair free buses.
In fact, the closer one looks, the more similarities one finds: background (Wu is the daughter of Taiwanese-American immigrants, Mamdani was born in Uganda and became a citizen in 2018), elite local educational pedigree (Wu attended Harvard Law, Mamdani went to Bronx Science), Asian American political trailblazer (Wu was the first Asian Woman elected to the Boston City Council, Mamdani was the first South Asian man elected to the State Assembly), fervent online support (who can forget the Wu Train?), with both ultimately challenging their city’s labor-aligned, real estate-friendly incumbent Mayor from the left.
However, there are a few crucial components that separate the candidacies of Mamdani (2025) and Wu (2021). For one, Wu had served in the City Council — at-large, meaning she campaigned across the entire municipality — for seven years, including a stint as Council President. While only thirty-five years of age on Election Day, Wu was a mother of two boys with over a decade of experience in government; as such, her opponents rarely challenged her management bona fides. Whereas Mamdani, in his third term in Albany, is routinely subjected to a slew of anonymous quotes from his colleagues casting doubt on his legislative chops (more on this later).
Nor was Wu facing a dreadnought with universal name recognition like Andrew Cuomo, as incumbent Marty Walsh joined Joe Biden’s cabinet months after Wu announced plans to challenge his re-election. Two days after Walsh left the race, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a seminal figure in Massachusetts Democratic politics, endorsed her former student. Might Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — at the peak of her powers — have a similar effect?
Obviously, comparing the electoral and municipal politics of Boston (pop. 675K) and New York City (pop. 8.8M) is not a 1:1 comparison. Boston is the youngest (big) city in the United States, whose electorate is increasingly dominated by college-graduates and upwardly-mobile Millennials in the biotech and financial service industries. New York City’s Democratic electorate, even as gentrification ravages the outer boroughs and Manhattan becomes a playground for the ultra-wealthy, remains anchored by the Black, Hispanic, and Asian working-class, whose political beliefs are traditionally more moderate, built upon relationships rather than fixed ideology; in contrast to the more liberal, well-heeled residents of the urban core.
Wu is a progressive, squarely in line with Boston’s political zeitgeist; Mamdani is a democratic socialist in a city defined by capitalism. Notably, Wu was not elected solely because of her strength among left-leaning renters in Jamaica Plain and Allston-Brighton; Boston’s equivalents to Clinton Hill and Astoria. The Elizabeth Warren protege ran up the score among high-income voters in Beacon Hill and Back Bay; akin to Chelsea and the Upper West Side. For Mamdani, any path-to-victory versus Andrew Cuomo runs through Manhattan’s civically-engaged, affluent neighborhoods.
Can Zohran Mamdani, reminiscent of Michelle Wu, win the hearts and minds of liberal, good-government voters — as she did four years ago?
“He’s fresh and everyone else is tired”
Let’s stay with Zohran for a minute.
The fact that Mamdani has made it this far — within eight points of Cuomo — remains an impressive feat in-and-of-itself.
As of today, AOC has yet to endorse. The left-leaning Working Families Party only bequeathed their #1 ranking to Mamdani last Friday. The New York Times Editorial Board, integral in pushing Andrew Cuomo to resign, has kept their powder dry in the Democratic Primary for Mayor. And, while Mamdani’s institutional coalition has grown since his launch, many of his strongest soldiers (NYC-DSA, DRUM, CAAV) — the organizations aiding his insurgent campaign publicly and privately — have been with him since Day #1.
But one candidate, or a collection of organizations, cannot engender 25,000 volunteers.
Mamdani’s steady climb has been organic, the product of a compelling cost-of-living message that has become ubiquitous to voters under-45, swept up by social media savvy and a voter contact operation with little modern precedent. And, as the election draws closer and more voters tune in — there are early indications that Mamdani’s class-based appeal has potential to extend well beyond the left’s traditional urban strongholds.
In doing so, Zohran Mamdani has tapped into something far greater than himself. When in doubt, bet on talent.
But that’s not enough. On this point, I think the political media has fallen short in evaluating the depth of Mamdani’s bid. His breakthrough, going from a complete unknown to within reach of City Hall, has been largely attributed to charisma and the universal appeal of “free stuff.” Routinely in the last month, there have been multiple articles featuring several anonymous quotes from Mamdani’s Albany colleagues, who complain that the three-term lawmaker doesn’t work hard enough. Furthermore, POLITICO published a piece last Friday (coincidentally on the day the Working Families Party RAC was meeting to finalize their #1 ranking decision), that implied Mamdani was solely a trojan-horse for NYC-DSA to increase their membership, and that Zohran himself had no faith in his ultimate viability.
Unfortunately, these takes miss the Big Picture. Ironically, the latter piece came on the heels of the Emerson poll, which showed Mamdani had cut Cuomo’s lead to single digits, the closest margin of the entire Primary. Regardless, running for Mayor of New York City is an emotionally consuming (and oftentimes hellish) experience with little parallel. What the press forgets is that if a candidate genuinely believes they cannot win, subjecting oneself to the day-after-day rigor of the campaign — particularly the full-court-press Mamdani has employed since last fall — is almost psychologically impossible.
If anything, Mamdani was the one who did believe. He bet on himself.
Self-confidence and raw talent can only go so far though. By any objective measure, Mamdani has outworked all of his opponents in the Mayoral race. Furthermore, while Zohran himself may be talented, had the thirty-three year old hired the wrong people, his insurgent effort would not have gotten off the ground. Today, is there any doubt left that Mamdani’s campaign has been, by far, the best run operation of the cycle?
In politics, a lot depends on the principal. Some are very hands-off (passenger princess, as they say), with longtime operatives running the show from behind-the-scenes. Others are recruited to run for office, and transition from student to pupil, with the correct guidance, as time progresses. Many begin, and end, as complete control freaks. Inevitably, almost all are narcissistic — the only question is to what extent. The best are embedded in their respective communities, and think granularly at the neighborhood-level. Of course, some are aloof and genuinely out-of-touch with reality beyond their own district lines. Staff dynamics — good, bad, and ugly — reflect the ethos of the boss, almost without fail. Few have the imagination or ambition to think of The Big Picture.
Zohran Mamdani does. While he may not crunch precinct results like yours truly, Mamdani has the cerebral mind to remember important data, but the limbic instincts to not get bogged down in numbers. Politics is emotional, voters want to feel heard by those vying to represent them. Zohran understands that as well as anyone I’ve met. Not only does he have an eye for talent, more importantly, he retains said talent. Elle Bisgaard-Church, his Campaign Manager, had been Mamdani’s Chief of Staff to his Assembly office since December 2020. It took foresight to understand that a high-profile Mayoral campaign was necessary to wake up the stagnant left in New York City; and that the safe and familiar diet of down-ballot races was insufficient to continue the growth of the progressive electoral project. There were a myriad of themes Mamdani could have put at the forefront of his campaign, but he astutely chose costs-of-living. Now, affordability — not “crime” — has become the race’s #1 issue. At a certain point, pundits will be discussing Mamdani’s “ceiling” while he’s measuring the drapes in Gracie Mansion.
None of this is by accident. Win or lose, there is much to learn from.
Debate Prep
All of this crescendos to the first Democratic Primary debate, hosted by WNBC, this evening.
While not as many classic “Undecideds” remain, in my opinion a considerable amount of support remains soft, particularly:
Black Women (Millennial & Gen-X): Do you ever wonder why Andrew Cuomo’s margins have been consistently better amongst Women than Men? This is due to his considerable and consistent advantage with the Black electorate, of which almost two-thirds are Women, the largest gender gap in participation of any race. While Cuomo’s senior dominance will be hard to erode, there is potential for Black Women under-65, many of whom voted for Maya Wiley four years ago, to defect from the former Governor. Indeed, for Adrienne Adams to rise into the top-tier, she must submit an excellent performance here, particularly given Cuomo’s predicted demographical advantages elsewhere. The same can be said for Zohran Mamdani, whose path to usurping Cuomo in the final round of ranked-choice-voting requires a better showing with Gen-X Black Women.
Almost the entire Latino electorate: Andrew Cuomo has won a plurality of Hispanic respondents in every poll, but Zohran Mamdani has gained ground in recent weeks. The largest share of rent-stabilized tenants, Mamdani’s “Rent Freeze” proposal is key to unlocking more support in the Bronx. The backing of a certain high-profile Member of Congress, whose district traces the historically-Puerto Rican neighborhoods along the #6 train, would be a tremendous boost to this effort.
Manhattan “Liberals” (Gen-X and Baby Boomer): Thus far, the most fractured segment of the electorate. Scott Stringer has the local history. Brad Lander has the Democratic clubs. Adrienne Adams has the City Hall resume, and Zohran Mamdani has the momentum. Here, a strong debate, and some friendly postgame coverage from the Paper of Record, would go a long way. However, if Andrew Cuomo holds his own below 96th Street — A Silent Plurality (if you will) — it’s Game Over.
For Zohran Mamdani and Adrienne Adams, the debate will serve as their first impression, beyond advertisements and articles, with many in the audience.
For Brad Lander and Scott Stringer, it will be a critical chance to re-introduce themselves to the Democratic electorate, and remind voters across the five boroughs why they once elevated them both to the Comptroller’s office.
For Andrew Cuomo, all of this applies. For many in the audience, the last time they saw Cuomo talking to them live was during one of his many television addresses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, five years later, the Prince of Darkness has triumphantly returned from the brink of irrelevance. How will Cuomo respond to a sea of contenders assailing him from all sides, rather than the one-on-one, back-and-forth routine he enjoyed as Governor?
Cuomo’s last Democratic Primary debate, seven years ago, came against actress Cynthia Nixon. In said debate, Cuomo performed relatively well; even when caught on defense, he remained comfortable and in control. Back then, the process was familiar.
Tonight, will he have the same energy? The former Governor is impervious to the nerves that may initially plague some of his rivals under the bright lights of cable news. However, this setting — a nine person stage where the frontrunner will be targeted as the center of attention and criticism — lacks precedent in Cuomo’s near half-century career in public life. After ducking reporters, skipping campaign forums, and employing a “Rose Garden” strategy for months, Andrew Cuomo will have nowhere to hide for two hours.
Will Cuomo relish their collective onslaught? How much should he engage with his opponents? Too much, and he gives credence and oxygen to their charges. Too little, and the audience may begin to soak in the many negatives.
In the inevitable 1v1 exchanges that will define much of the post-debate coverage, how will the former Governor come across in the eyes of the audience: calm and steady, the safe hand who shepherded New York through COVID; or defensive and arrogant, the flawed leader who resigned in disgrace.
All this to say, debates rarely shift the fundamentals of a campaign. Nothing of consequence may occur during the entire two hour period, or everything could change in an instant. For the leading candidates, there is considerably greater risk than reward. The exchanges and barbs from four years ago are largely forgotten today, ultimately irrelevant to the race’s outcome.
Of course, much of the same could have been said before last June’s debate.
We all know how that went.
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"Unfortunately, the median voter is not Matt Yglesias." We might have to remove the un- here (as much as I like Zellnor).
I was waiting for this and it did not disappoint!