Are New York Liberals a Dying Breed?

Brad Lander is running out of time

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Tuesday Night in Brooklyn Heights

Three weeks to yesterday, I spent my evening in the front pew of First Unitarian Congregational Society, a historic gothic revival church on Pierrepont Street, the site of Brad Lander’s Anti-Trump Town Hall.

Against the backdrop of a proudly progressive congregation (an LGBTQ flag flies proudly from the pulpit) and a beautiful array of stained glass windows, Lander was flanked by familiar political allies: the Working Families Party, Make the Road Action, Indivisible Brooklyn, and the 504 Democratic Club. Texas Congressman Greg Casar, Chair of the Progressive Caucus, even appeared (remotely) via pre-recorded video. The Comptroller railed against ICE, lauded Harvard for standing up to the Trump Administration, while praising Cory Booker’s filibuster and Tish James’ suits against the President. Despite the serious subject matter, the mood remained upbeat and action-oriented, with Lander himself repeatedly warning against the perils of “doom scrolling.” The evening concluded with the audience singing “Happy Birthday” to Lander’s eighty-one year old mother, Carol.

From the looks of the crowd, Gen-X and Baby Boomer liberal Democrats, one would think little had changed in the past four years (save for, of course, Donald Trump’s return to power), when Lander won eighty-percent of the vote across the tony, tree-lined mecca of civic-engagement, better known as Brownstone Brooklyn — not just Brooklyn Heights, but also adjacent Carroll Gardens, Park Slope and Windsor Terrace — on his way to a come-from-behind win in the Democratic Primary for Comptroller.

Indeed, the scene served as a snapshot of why Lander, the self-described “policy wonk” and “progressive zionist,” was once tapped as the liberal left’s best chance to recapture City Hall from Eric Adams, the quintessential product of outer borough machine politics. Capable of straddling the invisible line between technocratic “Garcia voters” and progressive “Wiley voters”, Lander appeared as well-positioned as any to satiate the electorate’s varied and heterodox desires. Balancing the city’s books gave him an aura of calm and competence, while casting the Comptroller as a much-needed antidote to the chaos and corruption consuming municipal government across Centre street. Not to mention, the founder of the City Council’s Progressive Caucus maintained longstanding ties to the city’s most influential left-leaning institutions. Lander was a darling of The New York Times Editorial Board, a close ally and past endorsee of progressive megastar Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who had been closely supported by the Working Families Party in every election throughout his career. What’s not to like?

However, while momentarily insulated from the horse race politics which traditionally define the New York City Mayoral race, the dynamics of the campaign, where Lander’s second citywide bid has remained stalled in the single digits, could be felt percolating in the background. Earlier that day, another public poll was released with an all-too-familiar story: Andrew Cuomo, the disgraced former Governor, polling significantly ahead of the field; Zohran Mamdani trailing in the mid-teens; with everyone else, including Lander, polling at six-percent or less. Easter Sunday brought more of the same, with Cuomo (45%!) and Mamdani (22%) further separating themselves from the field, the only two candidates to gain support compared to the same pollster’s survey one month prior. Said pollster, Brian Honan (linked to Cuomo), not-so-subtly tried to goad the frontrunner’s rivals into breaking their informal non-aggression pact: “I don’t know if Brad Lander [is] going to like being second-fiddle to Mamdani.”

For months, Lander’s lack of traction has been a cause of intrigue and anxiety for those across the anti-Cuomo spectrum. Allies are quick to reference the race’s compressed timeline, pointing to the final six weeks where past frontrunners have historically imploded. The trajectory of Kathryn Garcia looms large; the former Sanitation Commissioner was doomed until The New York Times saved her campaign, ultimately coming within seven-thousand votes of victory. This time four years ago, Lander was comparably down in the polls. It’s April, voters aren’t paying attention… yet.

Lander has already won the backing of several top affiliates, like Make The Road Action and CUFFH (Churches United for Fair Housing), within the Working Families Party’s constellation of nonprofits; indicative, perhaps, of an institutional edge for the Comptroller in landing the Party’s coveted #1 endorsement ranking (tentatively scheduled for late May). Lander also remains on pace to max out on matching funds come the next deadline, and is out today with his first ad buy of the campaign, a crucial step in reaching voters over-45, who exert disproportionate influence on Democratic Primary elections across the five boroughs. He successfully peeled off Upper West Side clubs from rival Scott Stringer, a symbolic step in eventually winning the hearts and minds of liberal Manhattanites, which, if paired with Lander’s vote-rich, Brownstone base west of Prospect Park, could almost single-handedly power the Comptroller to double-digits. Among all the Cuomo challengers, Lander is the only candidate who has won a citywide Democratic Primary in the past decade.

However, the pollercoaster has overshadowed much of this, rightly or wrongly, a cutthroat consequence of expectations.

When Brad Lander first entered the race last summer, he expected a (mostly) one-on-one faceoff with Eric Adams, with the full weight of the liberal left establishment uniformly lined up behind him. Instead, the Mayor was indicted, nearly removed, and is now running as an Independent. Andrew Cuomo lurked for months, only to reemerge with a commanding lead, proving far more difficult to counter than the diminished incumbent. Nor was Lander alone on the left, as Zohran Mamdani barnstormed his sleepy opponents, rapidly amassing headlines, volunteers, money, and most importantly, oxygen. In short, the landscape shifted, drastically, under Lander’s feet.

Does a liberal Comptroller, polling third in early May, have a narrative problem?

It would not be the first time.

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The Liberal Comptroller

Ironically, Brad Lander’s plight is reminiscent of the headwinds faced by one Scott Stringer.

“The comptroller’s reward for a career in public service? Third place in the polls,” echoed New York Magazine in April of 2021. Four years ago, Stringer was the choice of the many progressive and liberal institutions that dominate the left-spectrum of New York City politics. Nonetheless, the hard-charging Stringer consistently trailed both Andrew Yang and Eric Adams, struggling to excite the grassroots left, as both Dianne Morales (with her pledge to cut the police budget in half) and civil rights attorney Maya Wiley ate into his early support. “This has provoked the sort of media coverage candidates usually want to avoid, with reporters and pundits musing about a lack of momentum and a certain je ne sais quoi,” wrote Ross Barkan. Nonetheless, the Comptroller’s institutional ties were “enough for a significant chunk of the professional and nonprofit left, which is all-in on Stringer as the most ‘viable’ progressive to stop Andrew Yang and Eric Adams.” Sound familiar?

However, even in late April, Stringer had already banked several polls above fifteen percent (whereas Lander has not seen the double-digits since February), before his campaign was irrevocably derailed by sexual harassment allegations in early May, which saw the desertion of several high profile endorsements right as the Comptroller was on the ascent.

Stringer, ironically, is also running in this year’s crowded Democratic field, polling relatively close to Lander, despite a fraction of the institutional support he once enjoyed. Four years ago, the former’s tone echoed the latter’s current predicament: “As Stringer sees it, if voters want a sober-minded technocrat, someone who has no designs on higher office but who gets the depths of the problems the city faces, and an unapologetic liberal, then Stringer is the next mayor… … a belief that once voters truly tune in, they will line up the three current polling leaders and find that Stringer is the only one who can carry the city through the crisis.”

Yet, the task ahead of Lander is far more challenging than what Stringer faced four years ago. Instead of facing the mercurial Eric Adams and the fallible Andrew Yang, he’s chasing the elusive Andrew Cuomo, a political dreadnaught who has routinely broken forty-percent. Instead of competing with Dianne Morales’ leftist imitation, he has to contend with Zohran Mamdani, a three-term state lawmaker who has ascended to second-place with a municipal-level Bernie Sanders/AOC style campaign of small-dollar donors, social media savvy, and an economic populist message.

Even before Mamdani’s entrance, assembling (and maintaining) a tension-filled coalition across the spectrum of left-adjacent politics would have proved challenging for any Mayoral candidate. Prior to his untimely implosion, Stringer struggled to quell this dynamic. How do I win Forest Hills and Riverdale without losing Park Slope?” Four years ago, Lander did just that.

Early on, Lander sensed the need to adjust the optics of his run. For months, he held off on endorsing a “rent freeze” for rent-stabilized tenants, only recently backing the position (solely for the next calendar year) in advance of the Rent Guidelines Board meeting. He enthusiastically supported retaining police commissioner Jessica Tisch beyond the Adams’ administration, while raising eyeballs for his attendance at the annual REBNY (Real Estate Board of New York) gala, an event which the progressive Comptroller had routinely eschewed in the past. The former Park Slope Council Member has sidestepped the contentious primary roiling his political backyard, which pits his former staffer (and Chair of the Council Progressive Caucus) Shahana Hanif against Maya Kornberg, who is aided by the local derivative of AIPAC.

Just as Scott Stringer assiduously courted the ideological left, in line with the political zeitgeist of four years ago, Brad Lander has struck a tone (anti-corruption, good governance) more commensurate with Kathryn Garcia than Maya Wiley, but does not neglect partisanship (anti-Cuomo/Trump/Musk).

Ross Barkan on Scott Stringer in 2021: “His pivot left has not helped him with the outer borough moderates he still needs to pull into his coalition. He risks living in a kind of no-man’s land, not quite satisfying the young left but abandoning the older votes who may end up deciding the election.”

Michael Lange on Brad Lander in 2025: “His pivot to the middle has not helped him with the affluent Manhattanites he still needs to pull into his coalition. He risks living in a kind of no-man’s land, not quite satisfying technocratic voters but losing his progressive base who may end up deciding who finishes as the runner-up on election night.”

The proof is in the pudding. In Manhattan, a borough Lander won by twelve points four years ago (despite his opponent’s home field advantage), he currently trails Cuomo, Mamdani, and Stringer. Polls of Lander’s native Brooklyn, the Comptroller’s best borough in 2021 (+16%), show the Park Slope resident in a distant third place. For months, Brad’s case to voters and progressive “groups” alike was heavily reliant upon his viability, being the strongest candidate against Adams (initially) and Cuomo (eventually); an inoffensive liberal with managerial chops capable of threading a white-collar coalition against his more polarizing opponents.

Now, with his political standing in question, the core of said pitch is at risk.

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Stringer Theory

In preparation for this article, several people (whom I have great respect for) asserted that, had Scott Stringer not been felled by an allegation of sexual harassment (oft forgotten, there was a second allegation), he would have successfully united the disparate factions of the left behind him, the proverbial Wiley–Garcia voters, on his way to victory.

While this argument has many merits, I’m of the mind that Stringer’s campaign was a sliding doors moment for the left in New York City. Stringer was a classical liberal in every sense of the word, a protege of Rep. Jerry Nadler well-versed in clubhouse politics, equally comfortably schmoozing labor leaders and big donors. Nonetheless, he accurately read the political winds of 2018, which signaled an insurgent wave, backing several upstarts who later returned the favor, furnishing his progressive bona fides at a time when the left was in ascendance. Without a truly homegrown Mayoral candidate, Stringer became the de-facto choice of the growing number of progressive power players, despite his more establishment-friendly history, which included support for Andrew Cuomo and Hillary Clinton. The powerful Real Estate lobby was amused, not concerned, with Stringer’s pivot to the left, understanding it was a necessary piece of his path-to-victory: “everyone understood that Scott was going to do whatever Scott thought best served his electoral prospects at any moment.” Stringer also knew his way around the Outer Boroughs, capable of charming audiences in City Island, Bayside, and Sheepshead Bay.

Scott Stringer played the moment almost perfectly, only to crash and burn following Jean Kim’s press release. In hindsight, his appeal was broader, and more difficult to replicate, than given credit for.

With Stringer diminished, his heterogenous coalition split in several different directions: the Working Families Party eventually settled on Maya Wiley, consolidated by AOC; The New York Times propelled Kathryn Garcia up the ladder, and Stringer’s Manhattan base promptly deserted him for the former Sanitation Commissioner; while many of the Black and Hispanic elected officials either stuck by the scandal-scarred Comptroller, or migrated to eventual-victor Eric Adams.

Without scandal, would Stringer have won? We’ll never know.

But since then, so much has changed.

The coalition that backed Kathryn Garcia, largely concentrated in Manhattan’s affluent neighborhoods (in addition to several homeowner-heavy white ethnic neighborhoods in Southern Brooklyn, Eastern Queens, and Staten Island), now remains entirely up-for-grabs. The Ideological Left, already bursting at the seams in 2021 (to the point where Stringer’s first priority was to aggressively lock down their support), has grown to the point where they can not only elevate their own Mayoral candidates, but outpace the liberal left with a cutting edge, class-based message. Park Slope and Carroll Gardens may still boast the highest voter turnout, but there are more Williamsburg’s, Kensington’s, Astoria’s, and Bedford-Stuyvesant’s.

More Ella Emhoff’s than Fran Lebowitz's.

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The Three New Factions of NYC Politics

Was Brad Lander’s standing always more tenuous than many assumed?

Some may cite The Comptroller’s Curse, a local fable that attempts to explain why no bookkeeper since Abe Beame has won the Mayoralty, despite nearly all of them trying. However, in my estimation, there are far greater forces at play. Namely, a diminishing appetite for left-liberalism in New York City.

In writing this piece, I recalled Ross Barkan’s “The Three Factions of the American Left” essay (well worth a reread), where he breaks down the Democratic Party into three distinct groups, embodied by the leading Presidential contenders at the time: The Socialist Left, espoused by Bernie Sanders; The Liberal Left, led by Elizabeth Warren; and The Moderate Left, hailed by Joe Biden.

The Socialist Left and Moderate Left are relatively easy to discern, but what does “Liberal Left” even mean? I’ll provide an excerpt from Barkan:

“Liberal leftists, in the past, would be described as reform Democrats, committed to various goals of good government and the weakening of Democratic machine bosses in municipalities throughout America. Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, was once a reform Democrat from Brooklyn; many Democrats of the Baby Boomer generation emerged from reform and New Left circles, where the youth of mid-century hoped to reimagine Democratic politics without a successful theory of change” (Political Currents)

One of Barkan’s central theses is that the Liberal Left faction of Democratic Party, despite their strong ranks throughout elite cultural institutions (particularly academia and elite media), lacks support within the actual Democratic electorate when compared to the Socialist and Moderate Left.

Brad Lander’s 2021 victory in the Comptroller Primary appeared to be a micro-scale refutation of this notion.

However, maybe Barkan wasn’t wrong, he was just early.

When assessing the 2025 NYC Mayoral Primary, his breakdown holds up remarkably well:

• Zohran Mamdani, Socialist Left

• Brad Lander, Liberal Left

• Andrew Cuomo, Moderate Left.

Nonetheless, amidst the ever-changing landscape of New York City politics, I’ll share my own small spinoff here Perhaps, this thesis, coming together before your eyes, will eventually become the next iteration of my own “Seven Factions of New York City Politics.”

The Ideological Left: self-identified democratic socialists and progressives who have coalesced into a durable voting bloc of Millennials and Generation-Z. Bernie Sanders’ class-based message resonated, as did AOC’s adept use of new media and early scorn for the Democratic establishment. The War in Gaza is their generation’s Vietnam or Iraq. In New York City, this growing contingent has been wholeheartedly captured by Zohran Mamdani.

The Technocratic, Non-Partisan Middle: a crosscurrent of “Vote Blue No Matter Who” affluent Manhattanites and “Purple State” middle-class homeowners, who yearn for a manager in the mold of Kathryn Garcia or Michael Bloomberg. As of now, there is no candidate for Mayor who appears capable of coalescing this faction. In the future, look to Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch — lauded by The New York Times and New York Post alike — the heiress of the powerful and ultra-wealthy New York family.

The Moderate Machines: headlined by organized labor, the Black church, Republican-aligned mega donors, and the powerful real estate lobby; buttressed by low-income and middle-class African American and Afro-Caribbeans, working-class Latinos, in addition to Haredi and Orthodox Jews; a coalition that swept Eric Adams into City Hall, before electorally re-grouping around Andrew Cuomo.

Where’s the Liberal Left? Stuck in no man’s land.

Too left-leaning for the Technocratic Middle, not progressive enough for the Ideological Left.

The Ideological Left has grown remarkably over the past decade, a natural outgrowth of Bernie Sanders’ consecutive Presidential campaigns. As the college-educated Millennial class continues to pile into New York City, the left’s influence on electoral politics only grows year-over-year. Increasingly, they crave a Zohran-esque candidate, or someone akin to Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, who captured grassroots energy with her own plans for free buses and expanded rent control. Fluent in cutting-edge videography and social media savvy, the Ideological Left is well-equipped to capture the imagination of those under-45 amidst the Attention Economy, while grassroots donations ensure viability in a public matching funds system. The days of settling for Scott Stringer to carry the progressive mantle are over.

The affluent class of the urban core remains static; wealth serves as insulation from displacement, but their ranks are confined to Manhattan and a handful of Brownstone Brooklyn neighborhoods. The white ethnic homeowner class, once a political heavyweight spanning Staten Island, Queens, Southern Brooklyn, and the East Bronx, has been reduced to a secondary coalition building-block (just ask Andrew Yang). When the two are combined, this contingent is not only potent in a Democratic Primary, as evidenced by Kathryn Garcia’s 49.5% in 2021, but ultimately exerts maximum influence on General elections, due to the electoral strength of Independents and Republicans — Technocratic, Non-Partisan Middle – an important development should New York City soon adopt “Jungle Primary” elections.

While working and middle-class families continue to flee the city due to rising costs of living, the path to victory in a Democratic Primary is still paved through Black and Latino neighborhoods across the outer boroughs. Moderate Machines comfortably retain the reigns of the remaining institutions that are capable of moving votes: public sector labor unions, democratic clubhouses, clergy networks, NYCHA tenant associations — overwhelmingly concentrated in working-class, outer borough neighborhoods. Their preferred policy prescriptions, friendly to the status quo, ensure their campaign coffers are adequately filled; with Independent Expenditures, funded by the ultra-wealthy, layered on top for good measure.

Historically, the Liberal Left’s influence was concentrated in prestige media spaces, particularly the opinion pages and editorial boards of local newsrooms, nowhere more so than the Paper of Record. For over a century, political candidates across the five boroughs courted The New York Times Editorial Board as the signature stamp of liberal approval, a prerequisite to victory in Manhattan’s elite enclaves. Since Brad Lander’s tenure on the City Council, he has drawn rave reviews from the Gray Lady, who tapped him as a future Mayoral contender more than ten years ago. While AOC and WFP juiced his underdog Comptroller bid, it was the The New York Times Editorial Board who put Lander over the top in the closing weeks. However, the Editorial Board’s much-maligned decision to abscond from local politics, announced last summer, robbed liberals of their largest source of political influence. Were The Times still in play, Lander would be the top-contender for their endorsement, in line for a considerable boost over the final six weeks. Instead, he is mired in single-digits, fighting desperately to reach the sizable portion of the electorate that remains either undecided, or persuadable — namely, civically-engaged white-collar voters skeptical of Mamdani’s leftism and weary of Cuomo’s baggage.

Lastly, one should consider Lander’s current predicament through the prism of his 2016 piece: “Why I'm a Brooklyn Jewish Democratic Socialist… for Hillary”. This is not to mock Lander’s essay. Indeed many of his left-leaning Park Slope neighbors agreed with their Council Member’s sentiment, delivering Clinton a 60-40 majority in the de-facto capital of Brownstone Brooklyn. However, let’s ponder the broader implication of Lander’s words, almost a decade later. In 2025, Zohran Mamdani has become the local heir to the Bernie Sanders coalition (save for ethnic whites who loathed Clinton), with the promise of expansion into South Asian enclaves in Queens and the Bronx and increased margins amongst Cuomo-weary progressives. Whereas much of the Clinton coalition, almost to a tee — Black voters (Southeast Queens), Latinos (South Bronx), Wealthy Moderates (Upper East Side), Orthodox (Midwood) and Hasidic Jews (Borough Park) — overwhelmingly favors Andrew Cuomo.

What then, is left for Brad Lander?

The Upper West Side. Greenwich Village. Stuyvesant Town. Battery Park City.

Most of Manhattan, the engine behind Kathryn Garcia’s 2021 performance.

Almost every candidate (sans Mamdani) is trying to be a version of Garcia, with all (sans Cuomo) escaping success thus far. In the era of partisan politics, it is, unsurprisingly, difficult to appear non-partisan! In theory, the Comptroller position, while not a sexy bully pulpit, lends itself well to the narrative of competence and management. However, the experience angle, at least to countless voters not intimately familiar with Cuomo’s laundry list of wrongdoings in Albany, has consistently been a boon to the former Governor. Detailed policy briefs and Op-Eds don’t excite the young left, and fail to break through our attention deficit media ecosystem. Without The New York Times or Michael Bloomberg’s billions, getting the message out, organically, for a candidate of Lander’s archetype is very difficult.

Some of Garcia’s coalition will inevitably vote for Lander and Stringer, due to both familiarity and political kinship, not to mention an aversion to the disgraced executive. Some will shirk off the scandals and back Cuomo, a “bully” capable of standing up to Trump who led state government for eleven years. Some will vote for Mamdani, wowed by one of the best campaigns in recent memory; reminiscent of Murray Kempton famous quote of John Lindsay, “he is fresh while everyone else is tired.”

A split “Garcia vote” disadvantages Brad Lander and aids Andrew Cuomo. Already, the Comptroller is losing the left to Mamdani, while failing to build traction with the soft underbelly of the technocratic middle. Amongst these voters, Lander, despite winning their support in droves last cycle, has struggled to differentiate himself from the aforementioned Stringer, Zellnor Myrie, or Adrienne Adams.

Ranked-choice-voting, of course, remains the electoral elephant in the room. Here, I expect the Comptroller to maintain an edge over his rivals. However, RCV prowess cannot overcome a lackluster performance on the first ballot. To have a puncher’s chance, Lander needs to reach the high-teens or low-twenties, at the minimum — no more than ten points behind the frontrunner.

Without Manhattan, Brad Lander cannot catch Zohran Mamdani, let alone Andrew Cuomo.

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Friday Night in Jackson Heights

Last Friday, I attended Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s townhall in the Jackson Heights historic district. After barnstorming the west coast alongside Bernie Sanders during the “Fight Oligarchy” Tour, Ocasio-Cortez was back home in New York’s 14th Congressional District, where it all began.

Approximately halfway through her presentation, Brad Lander arrived, taking a seat near Assembly Member Jessica Gonzalez Rojas towards the front-center of the IS 145 auditorium. The Comptroller, in part, owes his previous victory to the early support lent by Ocasio-Cortez, who backed the Park Slope Council Member in April of 2021, headlining TV advertisements in English and Spanish while providing an injection of much-needed momentum at a time when Lander was significantly behind. Ocasio-Cortez, coupled with The New York Times and Working Families Party, formed the holy trinity that coalesced the liberal left behind Lander, propelling him to victory. Four years later, the all-powerful Editorial Board endorsement is off the table, while the invisible primary rages between Lander and Mamdani for whom WFP will anoint as their #1 ranking at the end of the month.

As with many important things in life, it will all come down to AOC.

There was no all-important sit down meeting between the two — at least not there. If there was a brief moment of eye-contact, a silent acknowledgment of Lander’s plight, a momentary diversion from Trump, Musk, and the Oligarchy — Ocasio-Cortez did not break stride.

At one point, Ocasio-Cortez mistakenly said “Governor Cuomo” instead of “Hochul,” to which the assembly immediately burst into a chorus of boo’s, revealing an unsurprising liberal bent from the Western Queens crowd. She rarely consulted notes, eschewed a teleprompter, and sparingly stepped behind the podium, preferring to freewheel across the stage. Even a loud heckler did not unnerve the Parkchester-native. As AOC delivered her signature lines — “Do I look like I’m playing,” in reference to Border Czar Tom Honan’s threats to prosecute Ocasio-Cortez — the constituent audience roared with approval.

Once reduced to merely an ideological actor, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, amidst Donald Trump’s return to power, has come to embody the changing coalitions within the Democratic Party, where traditional labels and coalitions are, momentarily, secondary to who is a fighter, and who is not.

Frequent readers of this newsletter will recall that I have ended multiple such pieces on the Mayoral race with an eye towards AOC’s endorsement, a crescendo that is dramatically building towards the last week of May, when the House of Representatives goes into recess for eleven days. In the coming weeks, she will decide whom to support, and how best to help them win (rallies with Bernie Sanders? joint TV & digital ads?). Her choice, the sole variable remaining that can meaningfully alter the Cuomo-trending trajectory of the race, was always set to come down between the liberal and the democratic socialist, Brad Lander and Zohran Mamdani.

Inevitably, one will walk away discouraged, spurned by a close ally at their greatest hour of need.

And, unless things change in the polls, her decision may be rather simple.

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