Choose Your Fighter
Chuck Schumer's Surrender, AOC's Future, & New York's Next Senator
“The fight going on in the Democratic Party is not between left and moderate. It is between those who want to fight and those who want to cave. And Team Fight stretches across all ideological aspects of the Party. Misread this at your own peril.”
— Anne Caprara, Chief of Staff to Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker
On Friday, March 14th, eight Senate Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, joined with Republicans to “pass a stopgap spending bill to stave off a government shutdown,” after coming out in opposition to the same resolution less than two days earlier.
Schumer’s “acquiescence” was not well received, as Democrats ranging from Neera Tandem to Bernie Sanders, with several Obama White House alumnus in between, promptly blasted the measure. The Minority Leader’s protege, New York’s junior Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand, also voted for the Continuing Resolution. Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who returned to Washington to lobby against Schumer’s position, was cold to his fellow Brooklynite. When asked “Is it time for new leadership in the Senate?," Jeffries bluntly responded "Next question." Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi also broke with the Senate Minority Leader: “This false choice that some are buying instead of fighting is unacceptable." On the Senate floor, Washington State Democrat Patty Murray, a close ally of Schumer, said “in this case, C.R. stands for ‘complete resignation.” At least President Donald Trump congratulated Schumer for “doing the right thing.”
As Democrats in both the House and Senate seethed at Chuck Schumer, their palpable rage was exceeded only by the Party's “base.”
But who, actually, is the Democratic Party base? In this instance, many are referring to the “resistance” base — a cohort that skews towards the college-educated and financially-stable, defined by their frequent news consumption, habitually gathering of petition signatures, and small-dollar donations to grassroots candidates. Their orientation is broadly-liberal, but not fixed. In the era of Donald Trump, they have adopted a win-at-all-costs mentality. While not a raw majority of Democratic voters, their views are well-represented in traditional media spaces. More than ever, they are increasingly online, and unafraid to share their opinions — on Twitter, Facebook, or The New York Times comment section. On Thursday evening and Friday afternoon, their dissatisfaction with Chuck Schumer reached a fever-pitch.
Nevertheless, the most impassioned response, unsurprisingly, came from a familiar firebrand, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, of New York’s 14th District.
“There are members of Congress who have won Trump-held districts in some of the most difficult territory in the United States who walked the plank and took innumerable risks in order to defend the American people, in order to defend Social Security and Medicaid and Medicare… Just to see Senate Democrats even consider acquiescing to Elon Musk, I think is a huge slap in the face. I think there is a deep sense of outrage and betrayal.”
The moment was vintage AOC — an unapologetic rebuke of her Party’s leadership (or lack thereof) that catapulted her, overnight, to national stardom.
“I’m a no bullshit kind of person.” — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
However, this was not an unknown Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez embarrassing Joe Crowley’s empty chair at a sparsely-attended campaign forum in the Bronx. No, this moment was AOC, one of the most famous Democrats in the United States (now a four-term representative from New York), taking apart her own Senator’s talking points (the Senate Minority Leader, no less), one-by-one, on live television. Nor was the takedown rooted in the traditional factional politics that define the Democratic Party. Rather, Ocasio-Cortez was imploring the Minority Leader to fight, a desire which transcends political ideology.
Ocasio-Cortez conducted the interview from Leesburg, Virginia, where House Democrats were huddling for their annual policy retreat. According to CNN, House Democrats were “so infuriated with Schumer’s decision” that many “encouraged” her to run against him.
“The member said that Democrats in Leesburg were ‘so mad’ that even centrist Democrats were ‘ready to write checks for AOC for Senate,’ adding that they have ‘never seen people so mad.’” (CNN)
When asked by Jake Tapper whether she would consider a challenge to the Senate Minority Leader, due for re-election in 2028, Ocasio-Cortez sidestepped the question, but did not rule out the idea.
“Chuck Schumer is a fighter, but he’s not Brooklyn’s Mike Tyson, who knocks his opponent’s out in one punch. He’s Floyd “Money” Mayweather, winning on technicalities, exceedingly frustrating to watch for any fans of real fights.”
— Anonymous
While it is not my intention to become a prisoner of the moment, Thursday Night (and Friday afternoon) did not feel like a fleeting rift, but rather a very-public rupture, one that exposed a considerable disconnect between segments of Democratic Party leadership and their voting base; while putting the longest tenured elected official in New York into the crosshairs of its most ascendant.
As a State Assembly Member in Southern Brooklyn, Chuck Schumer was regarded as a relentless hustler, the type to habitually hand out leaflets on subway platforms in the early hours of the morning, all while never assuming his constituents knew who he was. Within a few years, Watergate phenom Elizabeth Holtzman ran for Senate, allowing the valedictorian from James Madison High School to scoop up her vacant Congressional seat, a stretch from of Brooklyn from Crown Heights to Gerritsen Beach, featuring (secular) liberal Jews, ethnic whites, and both Orthodox and Hasidim. In need of fundraising, quickly, Schumer sought an appointment to the House Banking Committee, and promptly raised millions from Wall Street; Never again would Schumer lack for campaign contributions. On the verge of being pitted against his mentor, Stephen Solarz, in an upcoming redistricting knife fight, Schumer cultivated key allies in Albany, while his rival hosted dinner parties in suburban Virginia. When the lines were redrawn, Schumer’s district remained untouched; his colleague’s was obliterated into seven pieces, foreshadowing imminent defeat. Always an afterthought, when Schumer decided to run for Senate, he was tapped to finish a distant third, nothing more than a bump in the road for former Vice Presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro. However, not only did Schumer defeat Ferraro in a landslide, he slayed the political giant that haunted New York Democrats for eighteen years, Republican incumbent Alphonse D’Amato. With Hillary Clinton’s election two years later, Schumer was, once again, overshadowed amongst New York’s delegation — but not for long. Ironically, the senior Senator privately encouraged Barack Obama to run for President, and, when Clinton became Secretary of State, Schumer strong-armed Governor David Patterson into selecting a little-known, purple district Congresswoman from the North Country, Kirsten Gillibrand, to fill the vacancy. Routinely, Schumer outperformed the rest of New York’s Democratic ticket, frequently winning red-leaning Staten Island, Rockland County, and Long Island. In a career spanning half-a-century, Chuck Schumer has never lost an election.
For a decade, Schumer excelled as Harry Reid’s second-in-command as Vice Chair of the Senate Democratic Caucus. But, did he have the stomach to one day be the boss? In 2021, when Joe Biden took office and Democrats won two runoff elections in Georgia, Schumer finally got his chance. The kid from Midwood became the Senate Majority Leader.
For decades, Chuck Schumer was not of New York’s political institutions, he was the institution. To attend a public high school or university in the state of New York was to have Schumer at your graduation: making speeches, shaking hands, taking photos. Every year, without fail, he diligently visited each of the state’s sixty-two counties. In normal times, Schumer would spend this Sunday greeting runners at the finish line of the New York City Half-Marathon. And, when Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other leftists seized power during Donald Trump’s first term, Chuck Schumer tactfully and deliberately increased his outreach to the progressive left. Some on the left encouraged Ocasio-Cortez to waste no time and run against Schumer in 2022 (in hindsight, a bad environment for such an insurgency), and, while the Primary never came to pass, the threat kept Schumer on his toes. However, much of the aforementioned chatter came during a different era, when progressivism was in ascent, and AOC was exclusively defined as an ideological actor with anti-establishment bona fides. Today, not only has the majority of the Congresswoman’s inner-circle changed from her early days in DC, the calculus of AOC herself — namely, an expressed intention of cultivating long-term institutional power — has shifted.
And, perhaps most importantly, the social forces — macro-conditions that led to the progressive resurgence under Trump, followed by the Biden malaise — have shifted along with her. Indeed, the skillset and conditions that made Chuck Schumer well-suited to serve as Majority Leader have hindered his efforts as Minority Leader. Similarly, if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez struggled to find her niche during the Biden administration, she is well-equipped (perhaps more so than any Democrat in the United States) to rally the base amidst Donald Trump’s second term.
Rank-and-file Democrats want a fighter — and no one fights like AOC.
Chuck Schumer has known Donald Trump, and his late father Fred, for decades. In fact, Trump routinely wrote large checks to Schumer when the former was a New York real estate mogul. Perhaps, in a moment of profound anxiety for the Democratic base, Schumer is struggling to see past Fred’s son. For Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, there has never been a “before,” a time when Trump was not a DEFCON 1 level threat to democracy and governing institutions. Furthermore, the celebrated retail-politician who once shook every hand, visited every county, and marched in every parade — can now barely lend a word to the happenings occurring in his own backyard, from Eric Adams to Mahmoud Khalil.
For half-a-century, even the Brooklyn-native’s biggest critics acknowledged his unique pulse for the whims of his constituents.
In 2025, can the same still be said about Chuck Schumer?
So, what happens next?
Quite possibly: Nothing of consequence.
For one, Chuck Schumer is not due for re-election until 2028, and, while the perception of his first seven weeks as Minority Leader has been less than stellar, there is ample time for New York’s senior Senator to right the proverbial ship. After all, three years is a political eternity — for better or worse. If Congressional Democrats, particularly Jeffries and Schumer, get on the same page, the latter can avoid the fallout which engulfed him over the past thirty-six hours. And, in the attention economy driven by Donald Trump and Elon Musk, he will have ample opportunity to redeem himself. For one, New York is not lacking in Democratic elected officials who routinely elicit negative headlines — looking at you Eric Adams, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul. Certainly, this fever-pitch could blow over in a matter of weeks.
If so, Chuck Schumer could conceivably run for reelection, at the age of seventy-seven, and face no credible threat — as has been the case for his entire tenure in the Senate — while regaining his post as Senate Majority Leader, as Democrats retake Congress and the White House.
However, today marks the first of many budget fights that will consume Congress in the coming years. What if Chuck Schumer’s fortunes not only fail to improve, but get even worse?
Absent a smoking-gun, pushing out an incumbent United States Senator, let alone Charles Ellis Schumer in the state of New York, would be a herculean task.
Even a diminished and defiant Schumer, spurred to seek a fifth-term by a combination of arrogance and ego, would only have to fear a handful of prospective challengers.
Indeed, there would be many reasons for Chuck Schumer to remain bullish. New York’s working-class voters, whose days do not begin with POLITICO Playbook or Punchbowl News, are not closely following the everyday drama on Capitol Hill. Orthodox Jews and Hasidim would deliver their votes to New York’s second Jewish Senator in droves. Furthermore, it is difficult to imagine Schumer losing deep-blue Westchester County to a progressive challenger, let alone Nassau and Suffolk County on Long Island (deceptively vote-rich). Not to mention, Black Democrats in Rochester, Rochdale Village, and Roosevelt would have to be credibly persuaded to defect from the well-known incumbent. The House Democratic Caucus may never forgive the Senate Leader, but most union leaders would have Schumer’s back. His campaign coffers would be filled to the brim with Wall Street money, while the American Israel Political Action Committee (AIPAC) bankrolls an eight-figure Independent Expenditure. Half-a-century in New York politics would carry an avalanche of favors; and Schumer is not Andrew Cuomo, people actually like him. Without a doubt, Chuck Schumer could count on the votes of his two imaginary middle-class friends — the Bailey’s from Massapequa, an Italian and Jewish town on Long Island.
However, if there was a figure who could overcome all of this, it is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. In New York City, approximately three-fifths of the Democratic Primary electorate, AOC would have the inside-track to win at least three of the five boroughs. The political participation of self-identified liberals, progressives, and socialists — already a civically-engaged cohort — would be supercharged. Chuck Schumer will run up the score in his native-Midwood, but AOC would best him on the streets of Park Slope, where the Schumers have lived for over forty years. Hispanics and South Asians, two of the fastest growing demographic groups in New York, have been the bedrock of Ocasio-Cortez’s support in her Congressional District. In the Hudson Valley, Ocasio-Cortez would sweep the gentrifying counties of Ulster, Greene, and Columbia with talk of the Green New Deal, while college-campuses alone would help deliver majorities in Tompkins and St. Lawrence. Her economic populist message, and close association with Bernie Sanders, would play well across the spectrum of Upstate New York, where the status quo synonymous with Chuck Schumer has proven unkind to the state’s rural residents. The faucet of nationwide, small-dollar donors would be turned on — to the tune of $50-100M dollars, enough to go band-for-band with whatever political action committees opposed her. If executed correctly, a volunteer army, whose potential scope would be without precedent, could canvass every corner of the state. While Schumer is by no means a lousy debater, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains one-of-a-kind, a transcendent talent on both the campaign trail and evening news, the domains where the Democratic Party’s “strongest messenger” shines brightest. However, much to the chagrin of her close allies, AOC would likely be incentivized to avoid an explicitly ideological message, instead focusing on her capacity to fight Republicans and lead the Democratic Party, in order to maintain the cohesion of her unorthodox coalition.
However, does Ocasio-Cortez, increasingly focused on raising her national profile, want to build the necessary infrastructure and influence in New York State that would be necessary for such an undertaking?
And, even if she did — would it be worth the risk?
In New York, Ocasio-Cortez has earned the reputation as a deliberate, but nonetheless cautious actor. In many respects, challenging a figure of Schumer’s stature would run afoul of her past political instincts.
When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ran for Congress against the fourth-ranking House Democrat, two-decade incumbent Joe Crowley, she had nothing to lose.
Were she to run against Chuck Schumer in 2028, by then New York’s Senator for thirty-years, she would have everything to lose.
Unfortunately, for those who love political drama, a climactic, intra-generational showdown — the modern day meeting of Lyndon Johnson and Coke Stevenson — remains the least likely scenario. For two sitting, high-profile legislators, direct confrontation is rare and disincentivized, akin to mutually assured destruction.
In the short term, while Chuck Schumer is restlessly stuck under the political microscope, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be touring red-districts across New York State, filling gymnasiums to capacity in the North Country and Southern Tier, as her campaign balance rises into the tens of millions.
Indeed, the political class will have much to chatter about.
Schumer, 74, would be seventy-eight years old come the start of his next term. And, while his health is not in question, a backlash to the Democratic Party’s gerontocracy is brewing.
Whether or not Chuck Schumer remains Senate Democratic Leader for the next four years, an unthinkable scenario less than one week ago, Democratic Party leadership may be inclined to have “the talk” with New York’s senior Senator — sooner rather than later.
“You want it one way, but it’s the other way.”
If so, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, often derided by loud voices on the left for adopting anything resembling an “insider strategy,” would watch as the Party establishment not only opened a path for her ascendance, but declined to actively oppose her candidacy. However, such an acquiescence would not be done out of charity, nor solely because of her prowess building relationships inside the cloakroom, or the goodwill she earned whipping votes for legislation. No, the driving factor would be AOC’s vast and unique base of political power within the Democratic electorate — not among Washington D.C. power brokers, but rank-and-file voters.
A Chuck Schumer retirement announcement, likely after the midterm elections, would upend New York politics. While AOC would be encouraged, if not begged, by her allies to run — she would not be alone. Her neighboring Congressman, Ritchie Torres, a frequent critic of the left, may be more inclined to gun for an open Senate seat rather than face the incumbent Governor, Kathy Hochul. Same for Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado. Another colleague, Rep. Dan Goldman, blessed with a nine-figure net worth as heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, would be viable as a business-friendly moderate who led the first Trump Impeachment. Hudson Valley frontline Rep. Pat Ryan remains intriguing, but would not run against Ocasio-Cortez. Organized Labor and the Black establishment would, undoubtedly, gauge the interest of State Attorney General Letitia “Tish” James. Over the next few years, there will be plenty of time for rumination.
Perhaps, the events of the last twenty-four hours will be lost to history, a fleeting moment in time only remembered by the political class.
For now, Schumer is not only New York’s senior Senator, but the Senate Minority Leader.
However, were Chuck Schumer to find himself no longer leading New York State, as he has for more than a quarter-century, sometime in the near future, yesterday will have marked the beginning of the end.
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Schumer is my Senator and he has demonstrated that he is unfit to meet this moment In national politics. Moreover, the Democrats’s gerontocracy is actively hindering our ability to protect civil liberties. AOC would be a much better Senator.
An amazing and very informative piece.