The Only Hope of Stopping Andrew Cuomo
Can AOC rescue the progressive project in New York City?
Andrew Cuomo has been teflon.
For months, his opponents have relentlessly attacked him at every opportunity. On social media, at public forums (many of which the heavy frontrunner has skipped), and recently, on Television.
Certainly, there’s lots of ammunition to choose from. Twelve “credible” sexual harassment allegations, according to the State Attorney General. Subpoenas filed by his personal attorney for the gynecological records of his accusers. Undercounting nursing homes deaths by thousands during the COVID-19 pandemic. Tacit support for the Independent Democratic Conference, which gave defecting Democrats and Republicans control of the State Senate, holding progressive legislation hostage for several years. $60 Million (and counting) in legal fees billed to New York taxpayers.
The list goes on and on.
But with five weeks remaining, no attacks have resonated — at least enough to damage Cuomo’s standing in the polls, where the former Governor retains a commanding lead.
His Super PAC, “Fix the City,” has been virtually unchallenged on the airwaves for much of the past month, foregrounding the frontrunner as the only choice to many New Yorkers over-45, the sole “known” commodity in a sea of unfamiliar faces.
On May 9th, the New York Daily News shared that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had recently met with both Zohran Mamdani and Brad Lander, a sign that her endorsement is looming, as the Mayoral race enters the proverbial homestretch.
The reaction to the article, as with almost everything semi-controversial involving AOC, was overwhelming. Much of the feedback was nasty and personal, unfortunately the norm for Ocasio-Cortez, who frequently bears the brunt of the cruelest corners of the Internet.
Nonetheless, the emotional impetus driving many responses was anxiety. Cuomo’s prohibitive lead, once attributed to name recognition alone, has proved far more durable than the progressive political class predicted. What began as a manageable hurdle — comparisons between Cuomo’s standing and the past early leads of both Andrew Yang and Christine Quinn were made far too casually — has quickly given way to pessimism as the frontrunner's prohibitive advantage held steady.
Were Cuomo’s margin decreasing and everything going “according to plan,” the fever pitch would not be so loud. However, the metaphorical break glass moment is upon us.
Buried beneath the toxic chorus of chatter, remained many left-leaning locals and consistent supporters of the Congresswoman, who found themselves, amidst this moment of profound uncertainty, earnestly asking themselves: Where is AOC?
Help may soon be on the way.
In New York City, endorsements rarely matter; oftentimes barely worth the paper they are printed on. In fact, the number of elected officials who can tangibly move votes with their “endorsement” can be counted on one hand. These backroom machinations amount to little more than ego stimulation, seldom resonating beyond journalists and the insular political class.
Said thesis, broadly true, cannot be applied to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Four years ago, AOC supported civil rights attorney Maya Wiley, the last progressive standing (two other contenders were felled by scandal). Overnight, Wiley’s polling doubled following Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement, which propelled the progressive hopeful, confined to the single digits for months, into a surprise second place finish on Election Night. Aside from The New York Times Editorial Board, winning the backing of AOC meant securing the most impactful endorsement of any local political institution.
Now, with the Gray Lady sidelined from one of the most important contests in the city’s history (I’m skeptical that a separate group of “experts” individually weighing in on behalf of The Times will come close to matching the impact of the Editorial Board’s unified voice), AOC is the unequivocal Queen of the five borough chess board. However, Ocasio-Cortez has thus far offered scant public thoughts about the Mayoral race, where the disgraced former Governor enjoys a commanding lead with five weeks remaining.
For months, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been the left’s best chance of curtailing Cuomo’s coronation. Now, with each passing day, her intervention appears to be the only hope.
Why Bother?
If Andrew Cuomo is inevitable, what is the point of AOC expending hard-earned political capital on such a longshot effort, particularly when her standing within the Democratic Party, once tenuous, has been in rapid ascent during Trump 2.0?
Washington DC’s vapid political class, always eager to land a glove on Ocasio-Cortez, would relish the opportunity to knock down the progressive megastar. The headlines write themselves:
“AOC’s pick for NYC Mayor trounced in Cuomo’s Comeback.”
“Another high-profile defeat for progressives.”
“South Carolina all over again.”
Indeed, the most cynical people in Democratic Party politics, the vast majority of whom have absolutely no clue about the infinite nuance of New York City, would gleefully exploit a Cuomo victory to further their own narratives, including diminishing the influence of Ocasio-Cortez.
Does the risk, a high-profile loss (perhaps convincingly), outweigh the reward, an improbable victory (and the subsequent perils of actually governing the city)?
No.
In many respects, Andrew Cuomo is backed by the very Oligarchy that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been barnstorming the country to protest. Cuomo, no fan of the red-district tour led by Bernie Sanders, said the duo was “capitalizing” on the “fear” and “anger” stoked by Donald Trump. Certainly, the feeling is mutual, dating back to AOC’s first months in office where she frequently clashed with the centrist executive, before culminating in Cuomo’s stunning departure (the entire New York Congressional delegation called for his resignation). When asked in March about Cuomo’s bid for City Hall, Ocasio-Cortez said that New York needs “new leadership" that is not distracted by the "weight of the past." Recently, the name-dropping has been one-sided, with Cuomo taking aim at Ocasio-Cortez’s “far left ideas,” almost preemptively issuing the first strike in an expected war of words.
Eric Adams rarely challenged Ocasio-Cortez publicly or privately; the handful of times he did, the Mayor drew a swift rebuke: either from AOC herself, or a well-respected colleague, like Nydia Velázquez. Adams proved to be a relatively unserious adversary, more concerned with soft corruption than furthering feuds or enacting revenge. Andrew Cuomo, disciplined and ruthless, is an entirely different beast of an opponent. While he would not retain the raw power he once did, the former Governor could easily make life difficult for the Congresswoman from New York’s 14th District.
Indeed, a full-throated intervention in the New York City Mayoral race would be very Joe Crowley-esque, the infamous party boss whom Ocasio-Cortez improbably defeated on her way to the House of Representatives.
But Cuomo is no Crowley. Were this a video game, the former Governor would be the “boss” of a far higher-level; no one knew who Crowley was, everyone knows who Cuomo is. If the “King of Queens” proved to be nothing more than a paper tiger when faced by the voters, the “Prince of Darkness” is anything but. His negatives are supercharged (spin the wheel for a scandal), but so are his strengths (a mastery of relational and institutional politics).
Zohran Mamdani, Brad Lander, and Adrienne Adams simply do not have the profile or the reach to credibly knock him down.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez does.
AOC, for all of her national luster (exemplified by her early strength in 2028 Presidential Primary polls and blockbuster reception on the road), retains her greatest influence at home, in New York City. Indeed, much of the five boroughs is a constituency tailor-made for the heir to Bernie Sanders: Hispanic neighborhoods in the Bronx and Upper Manhattan, particularly the historically-Puerto Rican enclaves along the #6 train, champion the Parkchester-native as one of their own; college-educated progressives Millennials and Gen-Z, increasingly an electoral majority in North Brooklyn and Western Queens, have long supported the woman known as AOC; even Black voters, traditionally the Achilles Heel of left-leaning candidates, view Ocasio-Cortez favorably. Perhaps most remarkably, AOC has improved her standing among affluent white voters, the most civically-engaged Democratic cohort in New York City. She is revered and respected not only in reliably progressive Park Slope or Carroll Gardens, but the chic West Village and historically-Jewish Upper West Side. Today, moderate and liberal voters do not solely view AOC as merely an ideological actor; rather, they regard her as a “fighter,” one of the few leaders meeting the moment of Trump 2.0. In a recent Data for Progress poll, Ocasio-Cortez led Senator Chuck Schumer, a New York institution for several decades, by over nineteen points.
Arguably, no Democratic politician has harnessed “new media” to the extent AOC has. Relatable and plain spoken, she excels at countering false narratives while avoiding the jargon pitfalls that befall many progressives. Across all mediums, she remains ubiquitous; a communicative talent of rare order. Quibble about swing voters in the Midwest all you like, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez remains a rockstar with the Democratic electorate, where she maintains unique and unparalleled reach. The Presidential buzz is no accident.
In the context of local politics, this soft power creates an interesting dynamic. Indeed, Ocasio-Cortez cannot whip large labor unions or marshall an army of district leaders and state committee members behind her preferred candidate. Nor is she frequently meddling in down-ballot affairs or trading favors with other powerful politicians. Across the five boroughs, political power is traditionally defined by the strength of one’s relationship to the power brokers, rather than the voters themselves. For AOC, it’s the opposite; accountable to a movement, rather than an institution. This aura of authenticity, in an era of rampant distrust with the Democratic Party, has been central to Ocasio-Cortez’s core brand, preserving her robust favorability.
And, while her approach has shortcomings in lowkey, behind-the-scenes knife fights, she is remarkably well-suited for the high-profile, media-centric Mayoral race — where the Attention Economy supplants institutional influence, to an extent.
The Decision
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s choice comes down to two longstanding allies: Zohran Mamdani and Brad Lander.
Thus far, it has been a disappointing campaign for Brad Lander, consistently mired in the single digits despite a bevy of progressive institutional support. Four years ago, the Park Slope Council Member (who succeeded Bill de Blasio) was elected Comptroller in a come-from-behind victory which served as a bright spot for progressives (who infamously lost City Hall to Eric Adams). Ocasio-Cortez lent (rare) early support to Lander’s underdog bid, which helped stabilize his polling and rally the grassroots left behind him, before an endorsement from The New York Times Editorial Board put him over the top in the closing weeks.
Now, Lander’s erstwhile allies remain frozen: The Times Editorial Board is sitting out the race (opinion pieces withstanding), while the Working Families Party won’t make their #1 ranking official until after the May 23rd filing deadline. AOC, carefully watching the campaign’s trajectory, has remained on the sidelines, offering scant thoughts on the Primary roiling her home turf.
Caught in a sort-of no man’s land, Lander has struggled to excite the Ideological Left, while failing to capture the anti-Cuomo, technocratic middle. This phenomena was borne out, statistically, in last Wednesday’s poll from Marist College. Among self-identified “liberal” respondents, Lander earned only 13% support (the same number as Mamdani), compared to Cuomo’s commanding 35%. Whereas only 11% of those rated “very liberal” backed the Comptroller, miles behind Mamdani’s 47%(!). Case and point, Lander is trailing Mamdani in his home neighborhood of Park Slope, one of the most left-leaning communities in New York City, while only being five points ahead of Cuomo. Indeed, Lander would not have committed nearly $700K of his $4.6M cash-on-hand to five days of television advertisements in early May, were things going according to plan. The Comptroller needs movement, soon, to regain the narrative of his viability, or risk further abandonment of his institutional coalition to Zohran Mamdani.
As I wrote two weeks ago, he’s running out of time.
The case for Brad Lander is heavily reliant upon precedent. He’s done it before. A candidate in Mamdani’s mold — a self-described “democratic socialist” openly critical of the War in Gaza running to manage the largest municipality in the United States — has never run for Mayor before, let alone won. Whereas the thought of New York City elevating an inoffensive left-liberal, who is already a sitting citywide elected official, does not require the same degree of imagination.
Once overlooked by the political class, Zohran Mamdani has barnstormed into second place behind an adept harnessing of new media; translating an unabashed economic populist message centered on rising costs of living into scores of volunteers and enthusiasm. A political unknown prior to his insurgent bid for City Hall, the more people have learned about Mamdani, a charismatic and dynamic thirty-three year old, the more they like him.
When Mamdani launched his campaign for State Assembly in the fall of 2019, he did so at a rally in Queensbridge Park held by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, announcing the latter’s endorsement of the former; a critical boost that helped stabilize the reeling Sanders, who was recovering from a heart attack at the time. Ocasio-Cortez, who frequently supports fellow NYC-DSA endorsed candidates, remained neutral in Zohran’s first race, a contentious challenge to incumbent Aravella Simotas (Mamdani prevailed by less than three percent). Since then, Mamdani has never been on the ballot outside of his Astoria-based district, prompting many to doubt his broader viability when he initially entered the Mayoral Primary. Now, as the race for City Hall is condensed to a five week sprint, it is Mamdani who has harnessed the grassroots energy embedded by Sanders and AOC on that fateful October morning six years ago.
And, while his floor is no longer questioned, persistent prognostications remain about the extent of Mamdani’s ceiling. Will he lose support from Jewish liberals, who equate his anti-zionism with anti-semitism? Is Mamdani’s message dead-on-arrival with outer borough homeowners, weary of the specter of socialism? Can technocratic Manhattanites overlook his age and lack of government experience? For months, Cuomo’s camp eagerly elevated the democratic socialist, casting the insurgent Assemblyman as the perfect foil for the frontrunner, one capable of motivating wealthy donors into delivering max checks while polarizing key segments of the Cuomo-weary electorate into ultimately bending the knee to the former Governor.
Now, with the other candidates struggling to gain traction, is Zohran Mamdani the best chance of defeating Andrew Cuomo?
In My Opinion…
Last Wednesday, as raindrops peppered my plodding Bx28 (which was neither fast, nor free) along Gun Hill Road in the Bronx, I found myself thinking, “Zohran won AOC today.”
I was on my way to Co-op City, where Rep. Jamaal Bowman was set to endorse Mamdani at a rally. That morning, after more than three weeks without a public poll, Marist College showed that not much had changed in the past month of the Mayoral race: Cuomo still led comfortably, the Generation Gap persisted, and Mamdani remained the only other candidate in double digits. Bowman’s endorsement was Mamdani’s second Bronx breakthrough in as many weeks. At the end of April, State Senator Gustavo Rivera also endorsed the democratic socialist as his #1 choice, eschewing the unranked slate strategy that was all the rage last month. In a borough dominated by machine politics, where Andrew Cuomo currently enjoys a prohibitive advantage, AOC’s top-two local allies coming out strong for Zohran Mamdani are tea leaves that should not be ignored.
Some of this will also come down to timing. The longer Ocasio-Cortez waits, the more opportunity for a Lander resurgence; the less, the greater the chance she picks Mamdani.
Why not opt for an unranked slate? Split the baby, as Solomon said.
Such a move, popular across the progressive spectrum for several weeks in April, would potentially create a communications conundrum, the kind a shrewd operator like AOC has historically avoided. Almost inevitably, purely from a resources standpoint, there will be one lucky “horse” in the race she will have to go all-in on during the homestretch. Promoting one relatively unknown challenger to Andrew Cuomo is hard enough, boosting three (equally) is impossible.
In 2021, Ocasio-Cortez’s PAC, Courage to Change, issued dozens of endorsements for City Council. This came in addition to her own personal endorsement (a far more selective list), which, to say the least, resulted in widespread confusion. In my Council District, there were five candidates who were endorsed by Courage to Change, all of whom could credibly claim they were supported by AOC. I don’t think she is eager to repeat that fiasco.
Thus, after months of anticipation, my prediction is that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will rank Zohran Mamdani #1, Brad Lander #2, and Adrienne Adams #3 — culminating in a call to action to explicitly not rank Andrew Cuomo, a nod to the D-R-E-A-M strategy.
Zohran Mamdani’s consistent polling advantage and overlapping core “base” make him the conventionally “safer” pick for Ocasio-Cortez. Brad Lander loses out on the coveted top spot due to his diminished coalition, which fails to inspire confidence that he can make significant headway in the final weeks. Nonetheless, he earns AOC’s #2 ranking, owed to his long standing relationship and past collaboration with Ocasio-Cortez. In third, AOC extends an olive branch to City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, a dark-horse contender who could undercut Cuomo’s lead in Black neighborhoods. While Ocasio-Cortez and Adams have clashed in the past, their shotgun-marriage would be a reflection of the precarious political moment.
Indeed, AOC’s anti-Cuomo trinity (also supported by the Working Families Party) foregrounds cross-endorsement potential in the coming weeks, essential to overcoming Cuomo’s lead.
The progressive left in New York City lacks a singular institution capable of not only moving votes en masse, but making the hard decisions necessary to winning close elections. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, by an ultra-rare combination of persona and power, remains the exception. Occasionally sidelined by leadership, the new “face of the Democratic Party” remains overwhelmingly popular with the electorate itself.
Now, as Andrew Cuomo appears destined for Gracie Mansion, running up the score with working-class constituencies like those across the 14th District, can AOC use her rank-and-file resonance to stop him?
Now or Never
Today’s date is Monday, May 19th: twenty-seven days until the Early Voting period begins, thirty-seven days until Primary Day.
The House of Representatives enters recess this Friday May 23rd, with lawmakers not due back in Washington D.C. until Tuesday, June 3rd — a period of eleven days.
Time is running short. Ocasio-Cortez knows this. With respect to her endorsement, my eyes are laser focused on the days following Memorial Day (May 26th), when the Mayoral race officially enters the homestretch.
Waiting any longer, risks courting disaster.
Hold on — why not, as some observers have mused, keep the metaphorical powder dry until closer to election day, so as to “maximize impact”?
I’m glad you asked.
Four years ago, AOC endorsed Maya Wiley on June 5th — only seventeen days before Primary Day. In taking a wait-and-see approach, Ocasio-Cortez avoided prematurely backing the soon-to-implode efforts of either Scott Stringer or Dianne Morales, before consolidating the progressive movement around Wiley, who finished second in the first round.
However, the dynamics of this campaign are far different. In 2021, the race for City Hall was incredibly volatile, with each week bringing some new scandal or drama. From start to finish, there were five candidates who had a genuine shot at becoming Mayor. In contrast, this cycle has been defined by months of consistency: Andrew Cuomo in the thirties, Zohran Mamdani in the teens, Brad Lander and Adrienne Adams in single digits. Furthermore, in the 2024 Presidential Election, 38.4% of New York City residents voted early. Per the aforementioned Marist poll, only 46% of “Likely Democratic Primary Voters” plan to cast their ballot in-person on Election Day, compared to those who prefer Early Voting (40%) or Mail-in Ballots (10%). Furthermore, the core anti-Cuomo coalition (skewing towards under-45, college-educated, and progressives), cast their ballots earlier at a higher rate than any other demographic.
Increasingly, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her team cannot view June 24th as the crescendo of their anti-Cuomo efforts, given the majority of ballots will be cast beforehand.
A post-Memorial Day press conference coupled with a brief rally thereafter would be a good first step, kicking off an earned media frenzy. A joint appearance on cable news (MSNBC or CNN), still the dominant media medium for senior voters, would help too.
But one rally and a press release will not be enough to defeat Andrew Cuomo.
Most importantly, it is in these handful of recess days, also known as the “District Work Period,” where groundwork should be laid for something far bigger. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, arguably one of the busiest members of Congress, will finally have some time.
Some of that time should be set aside to film a 30-second television spot (in English and Spanish) with whomever earns her sought-after #1 ranking. It may not be “Dante,” the viral ad featuring Bill de Blasio’s son that swept his father into City Hall, but the bar for the social media savvy Millennial is sky high. A truly great ad is one of the few needle-movers that remains in local politics. Andrew Cuomo’s coalition, largely Black and Brown voters over-45, largely receive news about government and politics from broadcast television (twenty-percentage points higher than any other medium). Investing heavily in TV, with AOC — at the peak of her powers and popularity — as surrogate and validator, is one of the best strategies to erode Cuomo’s lead.
Filming said video in late May would allow the requisite time to cut and place the ad, which could hypothetically air from June 10th (four days before Early Voting begins) through June 24th (Primary Day). Additionally, an early endorsement would allow requisite time for campaigns to send AOC-inspired mail (older voters love to read), and develop a new iteration of their literature (important when the left’s greatest asset is door knocking).
In the background, AOC’s core team, which includes several former staffers to Bernie Sanders, can focus on coordinating with the Vermont Senator for the next installment in the “Fight Oligarchy” tour. Saturday, June 14th, the first day of Early Voting, sounds like a great day for a rally.
While Sanders was trounced in New York City by former Senator Hillary Clinton in 2016 (63.4% to 36.6%), had the New York Primary been held earlier in 2020, the Vermont Independent may have won a slim plurality over Joe Biden, owed to his improved standing among Hispanic voters. While his Presidential campaigns are firmly behind him, Sanders remains exceptionally popular, the Democrat with the highest favorability amongst New Yorkers.
Without a doubt, this is a lot to ask of AOC.
The left’s dire predicament is not her fault.
But desperate times call for desperate measures.
AOC has the power to uniquely challenge Andrew Cuomo. With one tweet, the frontrunner’s “rose garden” campaign from the shadows would instantly become a national story, purely because of Ocasio-Cortez’s interest. Now, imagine the impact of a sustained effort, across several mediums, during the race’s final weeks? New Yorkers have already rallied around AOC, but many are still searching for a vetted alternative, in a sea of unknowns, to Andrew Cuomo. Ocasio-Cortez, at the peak of her powers, has become the trusted voice for countless Democratic Primary voters in New York City.
To borrow a poker analogy, not going All In on stopping Cuomo may be akin to Folding. The extent of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s actions over the next several weeks will determine whether Andrew Cuomo has merely a 75% chance of victory, or a 98% chance entering Election Day.
With great power comes great responsibility.
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You note that a great tv ad is a good way to reach voters, especially older ones who might be in the Cuomo camp. I agree, and it's a shame that the tv ads the non-Cuomo candidates have put up thus far are pretty bad, imo
It's disappointed no one was interested in credibly taking up the technocratic centrist lane besides Cuomo. I've hated him for a long time but will be reluctantly voting for him anyway.