My Official 2025 NYC Mayor Prediction
Mamdani's Miracle? Or Cuomo's Comeback?
On Friday evening, I walked the length of Manhattan — from the top, Inwood, to bottom, Battery Park — with Zohran Mamdani and company. Despite being a lifelong resident of the borough, and avid walker of many neighborhoods, I had never made this particular fourteen mile journey. It was worth the wait.
Many people think Manhattan is uber-wealthy. And without a doubt, there are a plethora of affluent neighborhoods to choose from: The Upper West Side, Gramercy, TriBeca etc. However, I want to speak briefly about the first one hundred blocks of that walk, which stretches from Dyckman Street in Inwood (half upper middle-class and predominantly white; half supermajority Dominican and working-class) to 125th Street in Manhattanville (a formerly industrial neighborhood now colonized by Columbia University). When many people say “Manhattan,” those are not the blocks they think of. But in many respects, that five mile stretch is more commensurate with New York City as a whole — young, diverse, working-class — than the glitz and glam that awaits one farther south. I was eager to escape the Zohran Mamdani bubble, as the socialist phenomenon remains ubiquitous in my daily life. These one hundred blocks felt like an important step in doing just that. Surely, his reception would be more muted; a much-needed reality check from the raucous crowds that accompany the insurgent, now within a polling error of toppling a New York political dynasty once and for all, seemingly everywhere he goes. Yet, block after block, street after street, Zohran Mamdani was stopped by passersby, many of whom wanted a picture with “the next Mayor.” Cars rolled down their windows and honked their horns. Everyone wanted a piece of him. These scenes played out along St. Nicholas Avenue in Washington Heights and Inwood, some of the most densely rent stabilized precincts in New York City, where more than two-thirds of residents only speak Spanish. Mamdani’s aura was reminiscent of Mayor John Lindsay, the liberal urban crusader who famously crisscrossed working-class neighborhoods on his way to delivering a shocking upset to the complacent Democratic establishment.
Sixty years later, will history repeat itself?
On 123rd and Broadway, beneath the #1 train, my friend Asad Dandia shared something insightful: “Ross [Barkan] does the meta narrative really well, but your strength is the micro narrative.” Without a doubt, this forthcoming piece — which goes borough by borough, district by district, and neighborhood by neighborhood — will not break from my cherished micro. However, Asad was right. To explain what comes next, I need my own meta narrative, an overarching thesis for my prediction.
Here goes: As Bill de Blasio said recently, this is a change election. Zohran Mamdani, the thirty-three year old democratic socialist with unparalleled grassroots momentum; and Andrew Cuomo, the former three-term Governor expelled from office four years ago; represent two vastly different avenues to said “change.” In a contest billed as the battle for the future of the Democratic Party, the Generational Gap is stark. Mamdani has assembled his own “Coalition of the Ascendant,” the youngest generations of New Yorkers (White, Hispanic, and Asian) whose populations are only growing; whereas Andrew Cuomo’s coalition of older generations (Black, White Ethnic), are hemorrhaging population year after year. Despite an iron-clad hold on the Baby Boomer electorate, Cuomo is radioactive to voters under the age of 45, who associate the scandal-scarred executive with the status quo they have come to revile. Nationally, progressives relying on “young voters,” only to be inevitably be let down, is a tired cliche. However, there is ample evidence to suggest that won’t be the case for Zohran Mamdani, and his bet on expanding the electorate was smart politics: were college-educated voters — politicized and polarized by the Obama, Trump, and Sanders eras — given an exciting and tangible stake in local politics, they would flock to the polls in droves, particularly amidst a macro-political environment ripe for insurgency.
Now, Mamdani’s base is fired up; while Cuomo’s has been taken for granted.
Furthermore, Cuomo vs. Mamdani is a Tale of Two New Yorks. One is aging and on the decline, yet still tightly-tethered to the reins of power; the other is youthful and ascendant, but lacking insider clout. One relies on the atrophying, but still impactful, political machines of yore; the other prides itself on the grassroots — rallies, volunteers, energy – slowly recreating the civic life left behind by the machines. One prizes relationships and remains institution-driven (Clergy, Labor Unions, Editorial Boards, Real Estate); the other prescribes both left-leaning ideology and robust community organizing, with the foot soldiers to prove it. One embodies the establishment, the other rails against it. This Tuesday, these Two New York’s will collide at the ballot box. A changing of the political guard may be in order.
Indeed, the wind is behind Zohran Mamdani, even if the polls may not show it yet. Having spent months chasing the ghost of Andrew Cuomo, trying to come within striking distance of the overwhelming frontrunner, Mamdani has not only caught the former Governor — but surely surpassed him among the votes already tallied. With Early Voting behind us and Election Day on the horizon, Mamdani’s vote advantage may be in the tens of thousands as we enter Tuesday. Armed with fifty thousand volunteers amidst extreme temperatures, Mamdani will only need to maintain his lead for sixteen hours. Andrew Cuomo, in the fight of his political life, remains in serious trouble.
Lastly, despite the risk of being wrong, it is important to me to still make a prediction. In politics, there is constant hedging, particularly from the media and pundit class. My goal is for you to always have a sense of what I think and where I stand. I am very grateful that my readers, some of whom are politically quite different from myself, respect that sentiment. Ironically, there are more paid subscribers to this newsletter who work for Andrew Cuomo than any other Mayoral campaign. All I ask is that if you disagree with my prediction, you do so respectfully. Comment why, and let’s discuss further. Additionally, you do not get to nitpick this work (especially after the fact) if you do not offer up a prediction of your own. Those are the rules.
Without further adieu, let’s begin !
The First Round
Historically, Queens County has been the bellwether of the New York City Mayoral race, backing the winner every four years since 1989.
Both Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani lay claim to the World’s Borough, in a contest poised to become a battle of the gentrifying, younger, renter-heavy West; versus the suburban, homeowner-heavy, older East — a microcosm of the race at large, where voter turnout will shape the outcome.
As such, I am predicting significant increases in voter turnout (25%+) across Western Queens (Astoria, Long Island City, Sunnyside, Ridgewood), neighborhoods part of the Commie Corridor, where Mamdani is strongest. For Zohran to keep the borough-wide margin close, he must run-up-the score here. And I believe he will.
On the borough’s opposite end, I have Andrew Cuomo comfortably winning the middle-class Black neighborhoods of Southeast Queens (South Jamaica, Cambria Heights, St. Albans, Rochdale Village). Nonetheless, I have City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams performing respectably, taking between twenty-five and thirty-percent of the vote (that would otherwise be heavily skewed towards Cuomo). However, if Adams collapses in Southeast Queens, a distinct possibility, Cuomo may pull north of sixty-percent in the first round.
In many respects, the vast majority of Queens is tailor-made for Andrew Cuomo. I expect the Holliswood-native to clean-up along the Rockaway Peninsula and throughout the White Ethnic (Douglaston, Little Neck) and Middle-class Asian precincts (Murray Hill, Oakland Gardens) of Northeast Queens. The 27th Assembly District, which includes both the historically-Italian neighborhood of Whitestone and the Orthodox Jewish enclave of Kew Gardens Hills, should be Cuomo’s best.
For Mamdani to reach his ceiling, he must maximize South Asian support in Richmond Hill, Woodside, Glen Oaks, and along Hillside Avenue. In doing so, Mamdani can raise his floor in the less-hospitable Eastern Queens, and depress Cuomo’s initial lead.
The two polling leaders will be tasked with pushing their respective bases to the polls. Nonetheless, there remain a handful of Cuomo–Mamdani “battleground” neighborhoods, where I anticipate relatively close margins: immigrant-heavy Jackson Heights and Corona, historically-Jewish Forest Hills and Kew Gardens, and Chinese working-class enclaves Flushing and Elmhurst.
Few other candidates remain particularly relevant in Queens. That withstanding, Brad Lander should perform respectably in both Western Queens and the Forest Hills, Kew Gardens corridor; while Scott Stringer steals a non-insignificant number of White Ethnic voters from Cuomo in Rockaway Park, Bayside, and Fresh Meadows.
Queens: Round 1
Zohran Mamdani (31.9%)
Brad Lander (8.6%)
Jessica Ramos (1.6%)
Zellnor Myrie (1.9%)
Andrew Cuomo (36.7%)
Adrienne Adams (12.1%)
Scott Stringer (5.7%)
Michael Blake (0.6%)
Whitney Tilson (1.0%)
Total: 217,912 votes
A Tale of Two Boroughs.
Let’s begin with Andrew Cuomo. Indeed, the farther South or East one ventures, the more pronounced Cuomo’s advantage becomes. Brooklyn’s Black neighborhoods: low-income (Brownsville), working-class (East Flatbush) and middle-class (Canarsie) are the former Governor’s for the taking. An alliance with Southern Brooklyn power brokers Susan Zhuang and Bill Colton, stewards of “the last political machine,” should deliver the Chinese-Italian neighborhoods of Bensonhurst, Bath Beach and Gravesend. Cuomo will also put up “Asad numbers” (a dictatorial-style landslide) in Hasidic Borough Park. Inevitably, he’ll run-up-the-score in Midwood, Sheepshead Bay, and the Flatlands. The frontrunner’s dilemma is that, absent Black neighborhoods in the Southeast, relatively few votes will come from Cuomo’s strongest neighborhoods. And, while I don’t foresee voter turnout collapsing across “Cuomoland”, save for Chinese communities (without Andrew Yang at the top-of-the-ticket), I am of the opinion that Cuomo will struggle to replicate Eric Adams’ 2021 performance in Black Brooklyn.
On the contrary, in Brownstone Brooklyn and beyond – a mix of The Commie Corridor & No Kings Democrats — Zohran Mamdani has the necessary momentum to run-up-the-score versus Cuomo, in many of the city’s most vote-rich neighborhoods. Here, a voter turnout boom, a consequence of Mamdani’s own ubiquitous campaign and Trump 2.0, will aid the insurgent. I have Mamdani broaching: sixty-percent in Greenpoint and Williamsburg; fifty-percent in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and South Slope; and forty-percent in Park Slope, Gowanus, and Carroll Gardens. All in the first round.
Furthermore, I expect Mamdani to win both Bedford-Stuyvesant (AD56) and Crown Heights (AD43), two neighborhoods Eric Adams won by twenty-eight and thirty-nine percent versus Kathryn Garcia. Demographic change, Zo-mentum, and Cuomo weakness (compared to Adams), are ingredients that will produce results in Central Brooklyn markedly different from only four years ago. The 42nd Assembly District, represented by County Leader Rodneyse Bichotte, spanning both sides of Flatbush Avenue, will be a dead-heat.
In Kings County, my meta-analysis is borne out.
Comptroller Brad Lander finishes a strong second (30%) in Windsor Terrace, Park Slope, and Carroll Gardens. State Senator Zellnor Myrie — in the Afro-Caribbean neighborhoods Flatbush, Crown Heights, and Canarsie — crosses the double-digit threshold. Scott Stringer performs best in Southern Brooklyn, across a moderate mosaic of Orthodox Jewish, White Ethnic, Russian-speaking immigrants, and Chinese voters. While Adrienne Adams eats into Cuomo’s share in Southeast Brooklyn’s Black neighborhoods.
Brooklyn: Round 1
Zohran Mamdani (37.3%)
Brad Lander (14.8%)
Jessica Ramos (0.4%)
Zellnor Myrie (6.6%)
Andrew Cuomo (31.0%)
Adrienne Adams (5.2%)
Scott Stringer (2.9%)
Michael Blake (0.8%)
Whitney Tilson (1.1%)
Total: 354,800 votes
Without fail, Andrew Cuomo’s best borough.
Nonetheless, I have Mamdani and Lander keeping it close in the 61st Assembly District (which also includes affluent, Cuomo-friendly, Battery Park City in Manhattan), owed to a diversifying North Shore (South Asian and Arab immigrants, young homeowners). The Southern Shore, Donald Trump’s best (non-Hasidic) district in the entire Northeast, remains at the heart of Cuomoland. Home to more Italian-Americans than any other county in the United States, the son of Mario Cuomo is poised to run-up-the-score (55%+) there. Mid-Island, a mix of middle-class Ethnic Whites (Westerleigh, Castleton Corners) and working-class Blacks (Mariners Harbor, Clifton), should be Cuomo’s for the taking. The same can be said for the Eastern Shore, although the inclusion of northern Bay Ridge should help Mamdani stabilize his expected deficit. Few candidates, save for Scott Stringer, will be able to cut into Cuomo’s numbers on Staten Island.
Ultimately, how many votes can Cuomo bank from The Forgotten Borough?
Staten Island: Round 1
Zohran Mamdani (17.2%)
Brad Lander (10.7%)
Jessica Ramos (0.4%)
Zellnor Myrie (0.8%)
Andrew Cuomo (45.7%)
Adrienne Adams (6.6%)
Scott Stringer (14.6%)
Michael Blake (0.4%)
Whitney Tilson (3.7%)
Total: 34,210 votes
If Zohran Mamdani’s Cinderella campaign comes up short, it will most likely be at the hands of Manhattan.
Similarly to Central Brooklyn, I believe Mamdani will outperform expectations in Upper Manhattan. In the first round, I anticipate Cuomo narrowly wins East Harlem, but that Mamdani will outpace the frontrunner in Hamilton Heights, Washington Heights and Inwood (aided massively by middle-class, liberal cooperators in Hudson Heights). The 70th Assembly District, represented by Jordan Wright (who endorsed Cuomo, but also snapped a picture with Mamdani) should be a dead-heat.
The progressive-leaning 69th Assembly District (Morningside Heights, Upper West Side), will likely be Andrew Cuomo’s worst (and Mamdani and Lander’s combined best). The Upper East Side’s wealthiest corridor, stretching from Park to Fifth Avenue, will be undoubtedly be Cuomo’s best. Yorkville, increasingly populated by young professionals, may become an unexpected battleground between the candidates. Bluntly, the entirety of the race hinges on a handful of Manhattan Assembly Districts, particularly below 59th Street. Given their vote density, a multi-point swing across several neighborhoods is worth tens of thousands of votes changing hands.
Of the many factors needed for a Mamdani upset, this is by far the weakest link, particularly in light of the de-facto “Rank Cuomo, Not Mamdani” piece from The New York Times Editorial Board, combined with the multi-day fallout from the insurgent’s defense of the phrase “globalize the intifada.” Nonetheless, Mamdani should do quite well in pockets of Lower Manhattan, like Stuyvesant Town, Alphabet City, and the Lower East Side. Whereas the left-liberal neighborhoods of the West Side — The Village, Chelsea, Upper West Side — are Andrew Cuomo’s weak point. However, the former Governor has a firewall of his own: The Financial District, TriBeca, Gramercy, Tudor City, Lincoln Square, Sutton Place, Carnegie Hill. Indeed, amongst the urban core’s wealthiest precincts, I expect overwhelming support for Cuomo.
As part of Brad Lander’s late-surge, I have the Comptroller picking up noticeable support in Manhattan. While not enough to earn a plurality in any sole Assembly District, the eventual runoff of Lander’s voters, particularly those in Manhattan, will ultimately decide the race.
Manhattan: Round 1
Zohran Mamdani (31.3%)
Brad Lander (18.5%)
Jessica Ramos (0.2%)
Zellnor Myrie (1.1%)
Andrew Cuomo (32.4%)
Adrienne Adams (4.8%)
Scott Stringer (9.0%)
Michael Blake (0.4%)
Whitney Tilson (2.3%)
Total: 285,995 votes
Thus far, I have not mentioned the impending heat wave, set to peak on Tuesday, with temperatures on course to reach 100 degrees.
The Bronx, more so than any other borough, will bear the brunt of the heat wave. On a 100 degree day, the temperature on the tree-lined streets of the Upper West Side will remain in the high 80’s; uncomfortable, but manageable. Whereas in the Bronx and other low-income neighborhoods, particularly where very few residents commute by car, surface temperatures will exceed 120 degrees. Parkchester, Co-op City, and Concourse Village all have polling sites in their respective developments. Riverdale and Spuyten Duyvil will be insulated from the worst heat, an advantage of their lush environment. The same cannot be said for the rest of New York’s lowest income county. As such, I expect voter participation, already lagging through the Early Voting period, to plummet on Election Day, with the Bronx ultimately making up less than ten-percent of the citywide electorate.
This will have monumental consequences for Andrew Cuomo, whom I expect to win the borough by at least twenty-five percent.
The 82nd Assembly District in the East Bronx, represented by Michael Benedetto, which includes both working-class, senior-heavy Co-op City and middle-class (Latino & White Ethnic) Throggs Neck and Country Club, exemplifies the heart of Cuomo Country. Once again, Cuomo should enjoy a commanding lead in the Bronx’s Black neighborhoods, from working-class Wakefield and Williamsbridge, to low-income Morrisania; although former assemblyman Michael Blake is expected to peel off some votes, particularly in the latter. The backing and GOTV operation of Rep. Adriano Espaillat should help deliver the Dominican-heavy West side of the borough to Cuomo.
Mamdani has made noticeable inroads with Latino voters (+5 per Marist College), one of the youngest demographics in New York City. In the Bronx, those gains will be put to the test. In Mott Haven, amidst the early stages of gentrification, I think Mamdani will come within twenty-percent of Cuomo. Across the Dominican neighborhoods of the West Bronx and the historically-Jewish, pseudo suburbs of Riverdale and Spuyten Duyvil, I believe Mamdani will hold up “relatively” well; nonetheless finishing behind Cuomo, but keeping the margin respectably. I predict his best Assembly District will be the 87th, represented by Karines Reyes, where Mamdani should run-up-the-score with Bangladeshi residents of Parkchester and Westchester Square; while his endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez boosts him with the local Puerto Rican population.
Ultimately, I expect Cuomo to win pluralities, if not outright majorities, in every Bronx Assembly District.
The Bronx: Round 1
Zohran Mamdani (22.1%)
Brad Lander (6.4%)
Jessica Ramos (1.6%)
Zellnor Myrie (1.6%)
Andrew Cuomo (47.5%)
Adrienne Adams (9.8%)
Scott Stringer (4.6%)
Michael Blake (5.4%)
Whitney Tilson (0.8%)
Total: 94,086 votes
First Round Results by Borough
In the first round, I have Andrew Cuomo winning four of five boroughs, albeit two of them (Manhattan and Queens) quite narrowly.
However, arguably more important is the borough’s share of the electorate. Here, Mamdani’s big lead in Brooklyn keeps him close.
In fact, I only have Zohran Mamdani losing the first round by 2.5%.
Nevertheless, I’d caution anyone from deeming that a small Cuomo lead on Election Night would automatically be overcome by Mamdani.
Let’s skip to the final round. We’ll come back for RCV.
You’ll see why.
Queens: Final Round
The West vs. East divide only widens in the Final Round.
Zohran Mamdani breaks 70% in both Astoria and Long Island City, while performing well in Jackson Heights, Woodside, and Richmond Hill. Andrew Cuomo submits strong numbers in Southeast Queens (65%+), but Mamdani contains the damage; the result of a raised floor due to the growing South Asian population in Eastern Queens. Most importantly, boosts to voter turnout across Mamdani’s base (combined with prohibitive margins) ensure that the democratic socialist from Astoria has enough votes to keep the World’s Borough close, given Cuomo’s advantages elsewhere.
Queens: Final Round
Zohran Mamdani — 96,101 votes (47.7%)
Andrew Cuomo — 105,366 votes (52.3%)
Brooklyn: Final Round
Zohran Mamdani crushes Andrew Cuomo, uniformly, across Brooklyn’s most civically-engaged neighborhoods: a combination of both The Commie Corridor of renters along the G train, and “No Kings” upper-middle class Brownstone communities. Cuomo still retains a pronounced advantage across Brooklyn’s Black neighborhoods; and, to a lesser extent, throughout the borough’s more moderate Southern region. However, as was the case in Queens, the former Governor fails to keep up with the raw turnout of Mamdani’s electrified base, allowing the insurgent to romp to a ten point victory in Kings County.
Lastly, the four year fall off (2021-2025) from Eric Adams to Andrew Cuomo in Bedford-Stuyvesant, Crown Heights, and Flatbush will be studied for decades.
Brooklyn: Final Round
Zohran Mamdani — 185,247 votes (55.2%)
Andrew Cuomo — 150,324 votes (44.8%)
Staten Island: Final Round
Unsurprisingly, Staten Island comes home for Andrew Cuomo.
In a close race, Cuomo’s net gain of eleven-thousand votes could be critical.
Staten Island: Final Round
Zohran Mamdani — 10,153 votes (32.3%)
Andrew Cuomo — 21,245 votes (67.7%)
Manhattan: Final Round
I predict that Zohran Mamdani significantly over-performs his polling average in Manhattan. Ultimately, I have the democratic socialist (and former resident of Morningside Heights) sweeping every Assembly District in gentrifying Upper Manhattan, consolidating the more liberal West Side, while keeping the margin close in affluent neighborhoods along the East Side.
Here, Brad Lander’s runoff ballots help put Mamdani over the top.
Andrew Cuomo, save for the ultra-wealthy corridor of Park, Madison, and Fifth Avenue, fails to cultivate a pronounced advantage anywhere versus the pesky insurgent. Failing to mobilize his Black and Hispanic supporters, Cuomo loses diverse Upper Manhattan to the surging Mamdani.
Manhattan: Final Round
Zohran Mamdani — 140,355 votes (52.2%)
Andrew Cuomo — 128,593 votes (47.8%)
The Bronx: Final Round
Andrew Cuomo wins every Assembly District in the Bronx.
On the hottest day of the year, as voter turnout craters, that won’t be enough.
The Bronx: Final Round
Zohran Mamdani — 29,941 votes (35.25%)
Andrew Cuomo — 54,991 votes (64.75%)
Drum roll please…
Well, there you have it.
But we’re not done yet ! Let’s break down the ranked-choice voting.
Dispersion of Votes by Candidate
This is the dispersion of ballots (i.e. the percentage of Lander votes that transfer to Mamdani, Cuomo, or are “exhausted”), not the final raw numbers and percentages!
Ballot Exhaustion: The percentage of ballots that did not rank any remaining candidates. Ballot exhaustion is higher in working-class neighborhoods (Michael Blake, Jessica Ramos) and increases as the election narrows (fewer candidates remaining to choose from).
Blue Rectangle: The candidate eliminated in said round of RCV. The percentages above, split by the remaining candidates, represent the vote transfer percentages. Combined with “Ballot Exhaustion,” explained above, together they add up to 100%.
State Senator Jessica Ramos’ ballots (7,008) overwhelmingly transfer to Andrew Cuomo (55%), whom she controversially endorsed.
A plurality of Michael Blake’s ballots (10,532), namely Black voters in the Bronx, transfer to Andrew Cuomo (33%). Nonetheless, Mamdani benefits from Blake’s cross-endorsement (25%). Adrienne Adams also takes twenty-percent, satisfying the Black constituency weary of Cuomo.
The conservative hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson (14,678 votes) has essentially turned his campaign into an anti-Mamdani Independent Expenditure. Unsurprisingly, over fifty-percent of his ballots disperse to Andrew Cuomo; with the remainder split between Stringer and Lander.
State Senate Zellnor Myrie (33,139 votes), whose base is concentrated in Central Brooklyn, sees his ballots dispersed primarily to Zohran Mamdani and Brad Lander, owed to the ideological kinship of the Working Families Party slate. Nonetheless, a non-insignificant amount of Myrie’s Caribbean support goes to both Andrew Cuomo and Adrienne Adams.
Former Comptroller Scott Stringer (62,558 votes), whose core support is concentrated among older voters in outer borough white ethnic neighborhoods and Manhattan’s West Side, disperses a plurality of his ballots to Andrew Cuomo (41%) and Brad Lander (25%), with relatively little support transitioning to Zohran Mamdani or Adrienne Adams.
A lot hinges on City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (80,274 votes). I predict that a plurality of her support, primarily derived from Black voters, shifts to Andrew Cuomo (44%). Zohran Mamdani consolidates most of her remaining support (24%), while one-tenth goes to Brad Lander. These numbers could change significantly, were Adams’ lackluster campaign to hemorrhage Black support in the first round, and over-perform among white liberals. I also have 22% of her ballots being exhausted, due to historically-higher percentages of bullet voting (ranking only one candidate) in the Black community.
Ultimately, the Democratic nomination will come down to the distribution of Brad Lander’s ballots (168,277 votes), which comes from left-liberal voters in Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn (many of whom are Jewish). Lander not only cross endorsed Mamdani, but backed it up with an earnest and relentless campaign on Mamdani’s behalf across the final eleven days of the race. As such, I believe Mamdani will outpace Cuomo among “Lander voters” by almost a 3:1 margin, with a relatively low rate of ballot exhaustion (19%).
Will that be enough to win? Were Zohran Mamdani to emerge victorious, he would have Brad Lander (among many others) to thank.
Ranked-Choice-Voting Simulation
And there you have it…
I predict Zohran Mamdani will win the Democratic Primary for New York City Mayor by less than 1%.
Zohran Mamdani — 461,817 votes (50.07%)
Andrew Cuomo — 460,522 votes (49.93%)
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Email me at Michael.James.Lange@gmail.com
Obviously just one poll (and small sample), but worth noting that the RCV waterfall from the Emerson crosstabs looks much better for Zohran than the projections here - e.g. Adrienne's votes split 40/40/20 for Zohran/Brad/Cuomo, and Stringer's go ~50/33/16 for Brad/Adrienne/Cuomo (excluding exhausted ballots).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wY7w3pxDV7ofyhrTrAvSO_tpn9LS-aSr/edit?gid=1831218197#gid=1831218197
Great post as always. It may be a small thing but I’m bullish on Brad Lander winning at least two ADs in the first round (44 and 52). Past that, you’re brave to go on the record. :)