Obviously just one poll (and small sample), but worth noting that the RCV waterfall from the Emerson crosstabs looks much better for Zohran than the projections here - e.g. Adrienne's votes split 40/40/20 for Zohran/Brad/Cuomo, and Stringer's go ~50/33/16 for Brad/Adrienne/Cuomo (excluding exhausted ballots).
Agreed.. plus how on earth are 40% of Lander voters after ballot exhaustion going to Cuomo? No way, polls from way long ago had 2:1 for Mamdani and I say it has improved upon that for most candidates down the line, and obviously most for Lander after they have essentially campaigned on the same ticket for weeks now
True. That's why I think Michael should have Zohran up by more in his prediction here, he doesn't mention the age demographic change that much which is HUGE
Great post as always. It may be a small thing but I’m bullish on Brad Lander winning at least two ADs in the first round (44 and 52). Past that, you’re brave to go on the record. :)
Awesome. I've been canvassing for Mamdani, and it's great to have my naive enthusiasm checked, and Zohran still winning. My sense is, that the disgust with the Machine, and with Cuomo in particular, is far greater than visible. It's been particularly enjoyable to have the paid canvassers for Cuomo and minions admit to me they're voting for Mamdani. Even the local inspector of elections admitted as much.
PS: I think you meant "commensurate" for "commiserate." Or were you commiserating with Cuomo. If so, don't.
I think more Stringer voters could break for Mamdani than you factored. AOC ranked him #4 - he's kind of a swing vote for many people who are voting on WFP line.
Michael, you’ve been on a tear the last few weeks! Thank you for this truly excellent work, and for making it free to read. I agree with other commenters that Brad will win his old district and maybe some others in BK. Whether those older liberals move to cuomo (they want a bully to stand up to trump) or mamdani will be the ultimate question, I think
Very interesting stuff – I admittedly am not knowledgeable about trends surrounding NYC politics in 99% of the city but I know a fair bit about Manhattan's 69th Assembly District, having been involved with on the 2024 state assembly race there, where a more moderate candidate (albeit a much stronger candidate than Cuomo relative to the race) beat a Zohran-like progressive candidate by 18.5 points in a pretty low-turnout election. I really struggle to see how that specific district could go to Zohran by 28 points.
What am I missing here for you to project such a huge disparity? Is there something about this district that makes it ripe for such a huge swing? Or is Zohran just such a strong candidate, and Cuomo such a weak one – as well as a huge potential for Cuomo to lose votes due to the heat – that will create a Zohran tidal wave for the city as a whole?
Hey, fellow AD69 progressive! I worked in that race too for Eli Northrup. 28 points for Zohran seems like a lot but it mostly checks out for me. Zohran is not only stronger than Eli, I’d argue Cuomo is much weaker there than Micah Lasher was, despite their somewhat similar politics. Lasher is a centrist of the UWS, highly wonkish, culturally woke, deeply connected to neighborhood institutions. Folks here are somewhat skeptical of Zohran but they hate Cuomo, his record, accusations, and Trumpian qualities. It’s also just a more favorable year for progressives anyway, upper middle class whites are Jokerified by the current situation.
All very fair but I just can't wrap my head around 28 points – not that it's completely impossible and he has a lot of tailwinds I still feel like moderate voters by and large vote for moderates. I will say that if Zohran does win AD69 by 28 points this election will be a landslide.
Great and thoughtful analysis! I agree Zohran will out perform expectations in Manhattan with a net positive. Plus team Z's heavy focus on turning out unlikely and disenfranchised voters will get him the narrow win.
That it even is so close, despite the tens of millions of dollars spent disproportionately against the insurgent, proves that machine politics are atrophying and that the people are primed for a change candidate. Thanks for this!
your prediction is within the recount margin. how do you think a recount would go? do you think affidavit ballots would be invalidated at the same rate for each candidate? I'm thinking about the 2019 Queens DA race when Tiffany Caban won on election night but lost by 55 votes after recount
Obviously just one poll (and small sample), but worth noting that the RCV waterfall from the Emerson crosstabs looks much better for Zohran than the projections here - e.g. Adrienne's votes split 40/40/20 for Zohran/Brad/Cuomo, and Stringer's go ~50/33/16 for Brad/Adrienne/Cuomo (excluding exhausted ballots).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wY7w3pxDV7ofyhrTrAvSO_tpn9LS-aSr/edit?gid=1831218197#gid=1831218197
Agreed.. plus how on earth are 40% of Lander voters after ballot exhaustion going to Cuomo? No way, polls from way long ago had 2:1 for Mamdani and I say it has improved upon that for most candidates down the line, and obviously most for Lander after they have essentially campaigned on the same ticket for weeks now
It’s another poll that is polling almost 70% older voters- which will 100% not be the electorate
True. That's why I think Michael should have Zohran up by more in his prediction here, he doesn't mention the age demographic change that much which is HUGE
Great post as always. It may be a small thing but I’m bullish on Brad Lander winning at least two ADs in the first round (44 and 52). Past that, you’re brave to go on the record. :)
While you are a Bills fan (Go Jets) this is a great read!
Awesome. I've been canvassing for Mamdani, and it's great to have my naive enthusiasm checked, and Zohran still winning. My sense is, that the disgust with the Machine, and with Cuomo in particular, is far greater than visible. It's been particularly enjoyable to have the paid canvassers for Cuomo and minions admit to me they're voting for Mamdani. Even the local inspector of elections admitted as much.
PS: I think you meant "commensurate" for "commiserate." Or were you commiserating with Cuomo. If so, don't.
You're a micro-giant!
I think more Stringer voters could break for Mamdani than you factored. AOC ranked him #4 - he's kind of a swing vote for many people who are voting on WFP line.
Thank you so much for this in-depth analysis!
Michael, you’ve been on a tear the last few weeks! Thank you for this truly excellent work, and for making it free to read. I agree with other commenters that Brad will win his old district and maybe some others in BK. Whether those older liberals move to cuomo (they want a bully to stand up to trump) or mamdani will be the ultimate question, I think
Very interesting stuff – I admittedly am not knowledgeable about trends surrounding NYC politics in 99% of the city but I know a fair bit about Manhattan's 69th Assembly District, having been involved with on the 2024 state assembly race there, where a more moderate candidate (albeit a much stronger candidate than Cuomo relative to the race) beat a Zohran-like progressive candidate by 18.5 points in a pretty low-turnout election. I really struggle to see how that specific district could go to Zohran by 28 points.
What am I missing here for you to project such a huge disparity? Is there something about this district that makes it ripe for such a huge swing? Or is Zohran just such a strong candidate, and Cuomo such a weak one – as well as a huge potential for Cuomo to lose votes due to the heat – that will create a Zohran tidal wave for the city as a whole?
Hey, fellow AD69 progressive! I worked in that race too for Eli Northrup. 28 points for Zohran seems like a lot but it mostly checks out for me. Zohran is not only stronger than Eli, I’d argue Cuomo is much weaker there than Micah Lasher was, despite their somewhat similar politics. Lasher is a centrist of the UWS, highly wonkish, culturally woke, deeply connected to neighborhood institutions. Folks here are somewhat skeptical of Zohran but they hate Cuomo, his record, accusations, and Trumpian qualities. It’s also just a more favorable year for progressives anyway, upper middle class whites are Jokerified by the current situation.
All very fair but I just can't wrap my head around 28 points – not that it's completely impossible and he has a lot of tailwinds I still feel like moderate voters by and large vote for moderates. I will say that if Zohran does win AD69 by 28 points this election will be a landslide.
Great and thoughtful analysis! I agree Zohran will out perform expectations in Manhattan with a net positive. Plus team Z's heavy focus on turning out unlikely and disenfranchised voters will get him the narrow win.
My unscientific, anecdotal take based on my canvassing and gotv for Zohran in Queens. https://x.com/jae4Revolution/status/1936926791790440668?t=65Q1ldd_Z487dCsWKL9Osw&s=19
Great analysis. Thanks for sharing. You spelled Forest Hills incorrectly in the first image: with 2 R’s.
Michael you are prob my favorite substack
Great read, thank you for your work on this!
Incredible read as always !
That it even is so close, despite the tens of millions of dollars spent disproportionately against the insurgent, proves that machine politics are atrophying and that the people are primed for a change candidate. Thanks for this!
your prediction is within the recount margin. how do you think a recount would go? do you think affidavit ballots would be invalidated at the same rate for each candidate? I'm thinking about the 2019 Queens DA race when Tiffany Caban won on election night but lost by 55 votes after recount
bump