How Zohran Mamdani Can Win
The numbers & neighborhoods needed to pull off the greatest upset in New York City History
The Democratic Primary for New York City Mayor has come down to two: former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.
This morning, Marist College released one of the few public and independent polls of the campaign. In the first round, Cuomo leads Mamdani by twelve points; in the final round, following the ranked-choice-voting runoff, the former Governor prevails by ten percent.
Reaction to the poll, as with every point of difference in the campaign, will undoubtedly be polarized. Cuomo’s camp will claim victory, a validation of their internal and PAC-aligned polling that produced similar results over the past two weeks. Mamdani’s camp will point to the dates in the field (6/9-12): pre-debate, pre-cross endorsement with Brad Lander.
I’ll split the difference: Cuomo remains the favorite (70%+ odds), but his lead is actually somewhere in the single digits (anywhere from three to nine percent) and remains at risk over the final six days, despite an avalanche of outside spending designed to insulate the polarizing frontrunner.
Mamdani has run a near-perfect campaign, but still trails Cuomo with less than one week remaining. Such is life as an insurgent candidate, whose long shot bid began at one-percent in the polls, versus a universally-known political institution, heavily supported by both the financial and media elite.
Nonetheless, Mamdani’s road to securing the Democratic nomination, albeit a challenging avenue lacking modern precedent, remains firmly in-play these next six days. After all, New York is a city of neighborhoods, not crosstabs.
Thus, I have sorted all sixty-five of NYC’s Assembly Districts as follows:
The Commie Corridor (7): The young and hungry leftist base, stretching from Astoria to Sunset Park, reshaping politics in New York City.
No Kings & No Cuomo (4): Upper middle-class, progressive areas in Brownstone Brooklyn and Manhattan’s West Side united in their disdain for Trump and Cuomo.
Bloomberg’s Base (5): Affluent neighborhoods in Manhattan where Kathryn Garcia and Michael Bloomberg performed best, yet where Andrew Cuomo struggled versus Cynthia Nixon.
Gentrifying Battlegrounds (9): Historically Black and Latino communities in Upper Manhattan and Central Brooklyn amidst racial, economic, and political transition.
Zo-mentum (6): Districts with considerable South and East Asian populations, primarily in Queens, where Mamdani’s activation of “low propensity” voters and ground game could make the difference.
Keep It Close (10): Diverse outer borough neighborhoods that Cuomo will most likely win, but where Mamdani must keep his margin-of-loss respectable (within twenty-percent).
Cuomoland (25): An outer borough bloc spanning race, class, and religion where voter turnout (or lack thereof) for Cuomo will decide the outcome.
Here is Zohran Mamdani’s path-to-victory:
Terminology Review:
Final Four: Total votes between Eric Adams, Kathryn Garcia, Maya Wiley & Andrew Yang (2021)
Final Two: Total votes between Eric Adams & Kathryn Garcia (2021)
Exhaustion: Percentage of Ballots that ranked neither Adams nor Garcia
Turnout Change: Percent increase in raw votes from 2021 to 2025
The Commie Corridor
The young and hungry leftist base reshaping politics in New York City
Plain and Simple: The success (victory) or failure (defeat) of Zohran Mamdani’s campaign will be staked on the extent of college-educated, under-45 (Millennial & Gen-Z) participation in the Democratic Primary. Nowhere is this more important than throughout the “Commie Corridor,” insider shorthand for the many neighborhoods, increasingly populated with young urban professionals, along the East River waterfront in Brooklyn and Queens.
Since 2018, these districts, stretching from Astoria to Sunset Park, have produced the most left-leaning voting record in the state of New York. Almost all have elected at least one member of the Democratic Socialists to local office. Four years ago, this corridor buoyed progressive Maya Wiley to second-place in the first round of the Mayoral Primary.
Nonetheless, despite Wiley’s success, The Corridor showed plenty of untapped potential. If harnessed correctly, said voting bloc could supercharge a citywide coalition in a future Democratic Primary.
Far sooner than many anticipated, that day has come: for Zohran Mamdani has realized said potential. While Astoria, vote-by-vote, will not become the Upper West Side overnight, Mamdani is poised to significantly outperform Wiley’s past vote share while organically growing the electorate as well.
Increasing the number of ballots and earning a higher vote share?
Sounds like a recipe for success.
According to yesterday’s Manhattan Institute poll (Cuomo+12): “Youth turnout is the major wildcard: Mamdani wins 60% of first-choice votes from 18–34-year-olds citywide, compared to just 10% for Cuomo. If young voters turn out at significantly higher rates than in past primaries, the race could tighten. For example, if 18–34-year-olds make up 24% of the electorate—double their share in 2017 or 2021—the race becomes a statistical tie. If their share rises to 30%, Mamdani would likely edge out a narrow win over Cuomo.”
Realistically, voter turnout could increase by 33% (or more) throughout The Commie Corridor, the result of an excellent mass communications campaign (macro) and robust voter contact (micro), spurring record participation amongst college-educated Millennials and Generation-Z. A “Blue Wave” primary bump, similar to what accompanied Donald Trump’s first term, would help too. Four years ago, thousands of ballots (well-beyond Eric Adams’ margin-of-victory) were exhausted (did not rank Garcia or Adams) when Maya Wiley was eliminated, depressing the corridor’s influence in the final round of ranked-choice-voting. Given Mamdani is predicted to finish as a top-two candidate, ballot exhaustion is poised to significantly decrease.
Zohran Mamdani has not only expanded his base, he has resurrected civic life, once a hallmark of local politics, for the next generation of New Yorkers.
What Zohran Needs: Record voter turnout (30%+ increases) combined with low ballot exhaustion, leading to 30-50 point advantages versus Cuomo.
“No Kings” & No Cuomo
Upper middle-class, progressive neighborhoods united in their disgust for Queens-natives Donald Trump and Andrew Cuomo
While the “No Kings” march on Saturday was in protest of President Trump, one could have easily mistaken the rally as an anti-Cuomo demonstration.
On the streets of Park Slope and Morningside Heights, where civic engagement remains sky-high, there is relatively little appetite for the former Governor’s return to power. Across New York City’s highest turnout Assembly Districts — an eclectic mix of new-age progressivism, classical liberalism, and anti-Trump resistance — this phenomena works to Mamdani’s benefit, given his emergence as the most viable alternative to the scandal-scarred Cuomo.
However, Mamdani will not only have to win BIG here, he will need these (already vote-rich) neighborhoods to experience a macro-level bump in turnout, courtesy of Trump 2.0; ushering infrequent (and pissed off) voters to the polls en masse to cast their ballots against the Democratic status quo.
With one week remaining, there are auspicious signs — blockbuster early voting numbers in Manhattan & Brooklyn (the two boroughs have combined for 68%+ of the electorate) — that a white-collar surge may be on the horizon.
To win, the democratic socialist must consolidate the anti-Cuomo electorate, an effort boosted by a cross-endorsement from Comptroller Brad Lander.
What Zohran Needs: A Trump 2.0 turnout bump (15%+) and 30-40 point margins versus Cuomo. From a raw vote perspective, this is Mamdani’s best chance to run-up-the-score. A strong performance in these four ADs, and Mamdani can wipe out Cuomo’s lead in the Bronx and Staten Island.
Bloomberg’s Base
Wealthy neighborhoods where Kathryn Garcia performed best
Win some, lose some, break even.
That’s the name of the game for Zohran Mamdani in these handful of affluent Assembly Districts.
When Michael Bloomberg ran for Mayor as a Republican, he was able to break into the historically Democratic-leaning Manhattan. And, while Trump era polarization has locked the GOP out of the urban core, there remains an appetite for technocratic management, evidenced by Kathryn Garcia’s strong showing four years ago. However, in the 2025 race for New York City Mayor, no Bloomberg heir emerged to capture the center-left lane (anti-Cuomo, anti-Mamdani) that, for months, was there for the taking.
Now, the former three-term Mayor is bankrolling the Cuomo-aligned Super PAC, “Fix The City,” to the tune of five million dollars. Furthermore, The New York Times Editorial Board (instrumental in Cuomo’s resignation and Garcia’s surge) published a de-facto “Rank Cuomo, Not Mamdani” piece yesterday.
Indeed, the media and financial elite have no love lost for Zohran Mamdani. But will their opinion trickle down to rank-and-file Democrats in Manhattan, where both The Times and Bloomberg remain popular?
This morning’s Marist poll showed Mamdani trailing Cuomo by twenty-five percent in Manhattan, underscoring the uphill nature of the underdog’s task. Absent a rout in Brooklyn or an incredible comeback in Queens, Mamdani will need to win Manhattan to triage losses elsewhere. Of all the variables needed for the upset of the century, this will be (by far) Mamdani’s toughest hurdle.
The West Side, generally, should be friendlier to the anti-Cuomo insurgent than the East Side; meaning Mamdani will need to perform well in left-liberal neighborhoods like Chelsea and Hell's Kitchen. As a longtime (former) resident of the Yorkville section of the Upper East Side, I’m intrigued by the results there. I would forecast that Cuomo, the choice of doorman and luxury buildings, has a slight edge over Mamdani, popular among the sixth floor walkup tenements that still line the neighborhood’s side streets. I also expect Cuomo to run-up-the-score in Gramercy and Tudor City; while Mamdani coalesces both Stuy-Town and Alphabet City. In Lower Manhattan, Cuomo should win the Financial District, as Mamdani prevails along the Lower East Side; with Chinatown the default battleground between the two.
Perhaps most importantly, how many voters will choose neither?
What Zohran Needs: Play to a draw.
Gentrifying Battlegrounds
Historically Black and Latino communities reckoning with transition
Over the past seven years, many historically-Black communities (Bed-Stuy, Crown Heights, Flatbush), squeezed by burgeoning housing costs and the commodification of their neighborhoods, have sat on the frontlines of a realignment of institutional power. As rising rents have pushed college-educated urban professionals, the most left-leaning demographic, farther down the subway lines; political power, particularly in Central Brooklyn, has changed hands: from the local, atrophying Democratic machine to the insurgent (and ideological) upstarts.
However, in oft-overlooked Upper Manhattan (Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood), many of the aforementioned demographic shifts have also taken place. Nonetheless, political power has remained tightly controlled, rarely extending beyond Adriano Espaillat’s Dominican-led machine, Robert Jackson’s resistance to the latter in Hudson Heights and Inwood, and the Wright Dynasty in Harlem.
However, the high-profile Mayoral race, a media-focused affair where voter turnout reaches its peak, dilutes the influence of machine politics; a dynamic which lends itself to a Mamdani breakthrough in Upper Manhattan, despite limited (historical) down-ballot success for progressives.
Cuomo has consistently polled best with Black voters, particularly Generation-X and Baby Boomers. The million dollar question is whether Cuomo — of suburban Westchester and tony Sutton Place — can inspire Black seniors to come out to the polls en masse, as Eric Adams did four years ago.
Whereas we know Mamdani’s base is not lacking for inspiration.
Andrew Cuomo has the institutions, labor unions and local machines; Zohran Mamdani has the movements, NYC-DSA and the Working Families Party.
In Central Brooklyn and Upper Manhattan, the political tide may be turning.
What Zohran Needs: To win at least two-thirds of these nine Assembly Districts. The recipe is simple: robust Millennial & Gen-Z turnout (particularly among “low propensity” voters), Hispanic over-performance in Upper Manhattan, and lower participation among Black seniors in Central Brooklyn.
Further Reading: “The Five Neighborhoods that will choose NYC’s Next Mayor”
Zo-Mentum
Neighborhoods with growing Asian, African, Middle Eastern, and Muslim populations that Mamdani is trying to bring into the Democratic electorate
To win Queens County, the historic bellwether of the Mayor’s race, Zohran Mamdani must outperform Andrew Cuomo among Asian voters, including: working-class Chinese renters across Flushing and Elmhurst; middle-class Punjabi homeowners in Richmond Hill; and Bangladeshi Muslims on Hillside Avenue. Additionally, other key battlegrounds — like Parkchester (African & Bangladeshi) and Bay Ridge (Palestinian) — boast considerable Muslim and Arab Christian populations too. Across these ethnic and immigrant enclaves, Mamdani’s forty-thousand plus volunteers are pounding the pavement.
Zohran’s advantage with (traditionally-low turnout) South Asian and Muslim voters, frequently an overlooked bloc in Democratic Primary elections, is anticipated to be significant; a combination of historic opportunity (immigrant New York, for over a century, is most motivated to the polls when given the chance to elect one of their own) and relentless engagement (from dedicated events). In the 24th Assembly District in Queens, represented by David Weprin (who hosted a poorly attended, anti-Mamdani rally this Sunday), Zohran should win by more than twenty-percent. Were the democratic socialist to carry both Westchester Square and adjacent Parkchester (with some Little Yemen precincts sprinkled in), Mamdani would have a solid chance at bringing home the 87th Assembly District of the Bronx.
However, the insurgent’s bid may come down to the whims of East Asian (primarily Chinese) voters. Here, the campaign’s ground game and language accessibility could prove effective in building trust with lower-income voters; particularly when the Chinese electorate, broadly speaking, has vehemently pushed back against the (defund era) progressive line on public safety.
Nor will the electorate divide neatly; several Chinatowns (Fujianese vs. Cantonese) may produce results based on the depth of local relationships, rather than macro-conditions. Furthermore, without Andrew Yang on the ballot (who helped spur in record AAPI participation), what will voter turnout look like in Gravesend, Elmhurst and Flushing?
The diverse Asian electorate (both East and South) across New York City is not only the fastest growing demographic, but the racial group that experienced the most pronounced shift towards Donald Trump.
Can Zohran Mamdani — the man who took to the streets last November to ask Trump voters in working-class neighborhoods why — bring Asian and Muslim communities back into the Democratic electorate?
What Zohran Needs: To close-the-gap in Queens. Dominate Richmond Hill and Hillside Avenue; win Woodside and Briarwood; surprise in Elmhurst and Flushing; and hold-his-own in Bayside and Murray Hill. While only a handful of votes will be traded, in a close race, that could make all the difference.
Keep It Close
A diverse array of outer borough neighborhoods where Andrew Cuomo is predicted to have an advantage
Andrew Cuomo — beyond his core base of Black, Orthodox, and Dominican voters — remains on course to win several diverse Assembly Districts throughout the Outer Boroughs.
Across Southern Brooklyn’s trio of mixed Chinese and Italian neighborhoods — Bensonhurst, Bath Beach, and Gravesend — home of the last political machine in New York City, Cuomo has the support of local power brokers Bill Colton and Susan Zhuang. In the South Bronx, the former Governor will be favored to win the low-income, historically-Puerto Rican neighborhoods of Hunts Point and Soundview — despite the anti-Cuomo protests of their Congresswoman. Middle-class Jewish areas, such as Riverdale and Forest Hills, may be close; but their surrounding neighborhoods (Kingsbridge and Wakefield in the Bronx; Middle Village and Kew Gardens in Queens) are expected to be partial to Cuomo. The North Shore of Staten Island (in addition to Battery Park City) remains friendly to the frontrunner; as is much of the Rockaway Peninsula, not to mention Howard Beach and Broad Channel.
However, in each “Lean Cuomo” district lives pro-Mamdani pockets.
Immigrant-heavy Ozone Park and Glen Oaks are expected to turnout strong for Mamdani; Tompkinsville and other North Shore enclaves are increasingly youthful; while an economic-based message layered with endorsements from AOC and Bernie Sanders can help close-the-gap in Mott Haven.
For the entirety of his campaign, Mamdani has been realizing previously untapped potential in the Democratic electorate. The ultimate test will be whether his generational talent can also juice participation across these diverse enclaves, far beyond the left’s traditional base. Even if he does not win any of these Assembly Districts, an ability to “keep it close” will go a long way.
What Zohran Needs: Manageable margins, nothing disastrous. However, were Mamdani to “flip” any of these districts, that would bode well for his citywide prospects.
Cuomoland
Andrew Cuomo’s coalition spans many concurrent realities.
Working-poor Dominicans in the West Bronx. The financial elite of Park, Madison, and Fifth Avenue on the Upper East Side. Middle-class Italian union members on Staten Island’s Southern Shore. Low-income African Americans in Brownsville, working-class Afro Caribbeans in East Flatbush. Orthodox, Sephardic, and Hasidic Jews in Midwood and Borough Park. Russian-Speaking immigrants from the former Soviet Union in Sheepshead Bay and Brighton Beach. Homeowners in St. Albans and Wakefield; cooperators in Co-op City and Rochdale Village. Ethnic Whites in Rockaway Park and Country Club.
While vast in geography, the core of Cuomo’s support comes from the Black electorate in Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx. In head-to-head simulations versus Mamdani, the former Governor leads by fifty-percent among Black voters; the largest demographic advantage in the race.
However, unlike Eric Adams, who was annihilated by Kathryn Garcia in Manhattan’s well-heeled neighborhoods, the former Governor also performs well in the urban core (+20 in Manhattan per Marist). While Cuomo is rapidly losing ground with Latino voters (Mamdani+5), one of the youngest demographics in New York City; he has stemmed losses elsewhere.
Can Zohran Mamdani whittle down Andrew Cuomo’s lead with outer borough Black voters and affluent Manhattanites? If not, his path-to-victory narrows.
Borough Breakdown
Through three days of Early Voting, the borough-by-borough breakdown is:
Manhattan: 31,036 (33.0%)
The Bronx: 7,551 (8.0%)
Brooklyn: 33,185 (35.3%)
Queens: 19,186 (20.4%)
Staten Island: 3,154 (3.5%)
Let’s compare to 2021:
Day #3 of Early Voting:
Manhattan: 13,960 (31.9%)
The Bronx: 5,175 (11.8%)
Brooklyn: 13,501 (30.8%)
Queens: 8,570 (19.6%)
Staten Island: 2,514 (5.7%)
Total (including Primary Day)
Manhattan: 265,626 (28.2%)
The Bronx: 111,800 (11.9%)
Brooklyn: 320,489 (34.0%)
Queens: 213,003 (22.6%)
Staten Island: 30,931 (3.3%)
Zohran needs Brooklyn — experiencing a noticeable uptick in voter turnout in Carroll Gardens, Park Slope, Windsor Terrace, Fort Greene, and Prospect Heights (all Mamdani strongholds & Cuomo weak points) — to carry said momentum into Election Day; ideally remaining above 35% of the electorate. If Manhattan’s share of the electorate also stays north of thirty-percent, Mamdani would stand to gain as well, particularly if the liberal West Side outperforms the moderate East Side. Similarly, were voter turnout in Queens to be skewed towards the West, the democratic socialist from Astoria would stand to benefit handsomely. Lastly, if the current borough-by-borough ratios hold, Mamdani could lose The Bronx and Staten Island by thirty-points apiece, and still come out ahead, were he to win Brooklyn by ten-percent.
It’s all about voter turnout.
The Early Voting period (urban core, college-educated) should favor Zohran Mamdani; whereas the Election Day electorate (outer borough, working-class) leans towards Andrew Cuomo.
Among the “most active” voters, Mamdani and Cuomo are tied. Primary Day will see temperatures as high as 100 degrees. Who can pull out their people?
Absent a blowout on Election Night, the race will climatically build towards the ranked-choice-voting runoff, set for release on July 1st by the Board of Elections.
Four years ago, Kathryn Garcia nearly overcame more than an eleven-percent deficit in the first round. However, Garcia was a ranked-choice-voting unicorn, having cross-endorsed with Andrew Yang and benefited handsomely from the ideological nature of Maya Wiley’s voters.
Admittedly, this forthcoming “take” comes from nothing more than many hours crunching my homemade RCV spreadsheet. Nonetheless, I believe Mamdani needs to finish within five-percent of Cuomo on Primary Day. The caveat being that the higher Cuomo’s initial percentage (35%+), the closer Mamdani’s margin must be (less than 5%); while the lower the frontrunner’s percentage is (sub 33%), the more wiggle-room the underdog has to overtake him. Were Mamdani, however unlikely, to surpass Cuomo in the first round, the race, barring an Act of God, would be over.
As of now, we have limited data to work with in terms of the efficacy of cross endorsements. However, at this late-stage, they remain one of the only remaining tools to potentially gain ground on Cuomo. It certainly doesn’t hurt.
As of now, Mamdani has been explicitly cross-endorsed by both Comptroller Brad Lander and former assemblyman Michael Blake; whereas with less than one week remaining, neither Adrienne Adams nor Zellnor Myrie have done the same for the consistent second-place finisher, despite their mutual place on the Working Families Party slate.
First and foremost, the race’s outcome hinges heavily on the dispersion of Brad Lander’s voters; consequential, given the Comptroller should see a late bump (courtesy of a strong debate, favorable Opinion coverage from The New York Times, and his viral arrest by ICE agents). Not only will Mamdani need to win a high percentage of Lander’s runoff ballots (3:1 in my estimation), the insurgent will need ballot exhaustion to remain low (less than twenty-five percent), to maximize his advantage against the polarizing frontrunner. Lander’s cross-endorsement of Mamdani, and subsequent earnest campaigning on his behalf, displays a genuine effort that will resonate with voters. Nevertheless, Lander’s voters are among the most ideological and highest-information in the electorate; the former lends itself well to a Mamdani cross (a mutual desire to stop Cuomo), but the latter indicates they are inclined to make up their own minds.
However, were Adrienne Adams’ voters to overwhelmingly prefer Cuomo to Mamdani farther down their ballots, whatever advantage the latter could gain from Lander’s voters would ultimately prove null. Thus far, Adams has failed to garner much traction, the product of a late entrance which postponed her procurement of matching funds until late May. Nonetheless, the City Council Speaker is poised to finish in the high single digits on Election Night; a non-insignificant tally, but far too low to catch up at this late stage.
The contours of Adams’ coalition are difficult to discern. How many Black voters, that would otherwise rank Andrew Cuomo first, are now voting for her? And, more importantly, even if they rank Adams #1, are they still ranking Cuomo #2, despite her advice to the contrary?
The latter (Adams #1, Cuomo #2 voters), are theoretically where a cross-endorsement could make the most difference. Per my calculations, Zohran needs something in the neighborhood of 45% Cuomo, 30% Mamdani, 20% Exhausted on Adrienne Adams’ ballots. A wider Cuomo–Mamdani gap, and the insurgent’s ranked-choice-voting math becomes more difficult.
Certainly, there are complicated politics percolating in the background. Mamdani and Lander already cross-endorsed one another as their respective number two’s, an alliance that drew a swift rebuke from Reverend Al Sharpton. Adams was also quick to criticize Mamdani for his calls to abolish ICE, in an episode that backfired on the Speaker. Soon thereafter, interesting quotes trickled into POLITICO, warning of an impending “divorce” between Adams and the Working Families Party. I also wouldn’t doubt that there are some people in the Speaker’s orbit who (privately) prefer Cuomo to Mamdani.
However, when you block out all of the noise, we are left with this: Adrienne Adams entered the race to stop Andrew Cuomo from becoming Mayor.
Now, Zohran Mamdani is her best chance of doing just that.
Connect With Me:
Follow me on Twitter @MichaelLangeNYC
Email me at Michael.James.Lange@gmail.com
Did you see the endorsement video from Chi Ossé and John Liu in Mandarin? I feel like people are underestimating the impact of the videos in Spanish, Hindi, and now Mandarin. People want to be spoken to directly and nothing works better than speaking people's languages, especially in Queens where we have the trilingual ballots. I'm interested to see what happens on June 24.
Fantastic analysis, thank you!