The Five Neighborhoods that will choose NYC's Next Mayor
Bellwethers and Battlegrounds from Brooklyn to The Bronx
Early Voting in the Democratic Primary for New York City Mayor begins tomorrow, with the race increasingly boiling down to former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Queens assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.
In 2021, the final round of ranked-choice-voting was defined by racial, educational and ideological polarization: as former Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, a technocrat endorsed by The New York Times Editorial Board, dominating amongst upper-middle class, white collar professionals in Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn; while Eric Adams, a former police captain from South Jamaica, was the resounding choice of Black and Hispanic working-class voters in the Outer Boroughs. Adams and Garcia rarely exerted comparable strength in the same neighborhood — Flushing, Sheepshead Bay, Washington Heights, and Throggs Neck were exceptions — as both opted to run-up-the-score in their respective bases.
Here, I have selected five neighborhoods where I anticipate close margins between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani, not only on June 24th (Primary Day) but ultimately July 1st, when the ranked-choice results are published by the Board of Elections.
In doing so, I have eschewed neighborhoods like Park Slope and The Upper West Side, which should remain relatively close during the first round of voting; as ballots split between several anti-Cuomo candidates. However, with each passing round of ranked-choice-voting, as more candidates are eliminated, the margins separating Mamdani and Cuomo are likely to increase. Thus, I have sought to prioritized the final round outcome.
Without further adieu, let’s begin.
Bedford-Stuyvesant
Did you know that Eric Adams and Maya Wiley received the same number of votes (10,786) in Bedford-Stuyvesant?
On that fateful ballot four years ago, the neighborhood also elected Chi Ossé, an embodiment of the many political cross-currents sweeping the community. Supported by both the Working Families Party and AOC, Ossé defeated a top lieutenant in the local Democratic machine. The surprise triumph of the social media savvy, Gen-Z Ossé — at the heart of gentrifying Bed-Stuy — was the latest chapter in the progressive left usurping power from the atrophying Brooklyn establishment. In many respects, Ossé’s “Why Shit Not Working” videos acted as the precursor to the highly-produced, viral spots from Zohran Mamdani. Now, the two have teamed up in the Mayoral race, recently hosting a 300+ person rally in Herbert Von King Park.
Indeed, the population of Bedford-Stuyvesant has changed significantly over the past decade, the result of rising rents that have pushed young urban professionals farther down the subway lines. This familiar tale has befallen many once-redlined Black neighborhoods, reshaping the political character of Central Brooklyn in the process. After all, college-educated renters (Millennials & Gen-Z) are the most left-leaning demographic. Spend your Saturday night on Marcus Garvey Boulevard: peek into Barb’s, an intimate bar where everyone is under thirty-five; then walk two blocks north to Lucky’s Cocktail Lounge, a far livelier (but more Gen-X) atmosphere complete with hookah and live sports — and the race and age stratification, that defines modern-day Bed-Stuy, becomes quite clear.
Home to more than a dozen public housing developments and one of New York City’s most renowned historic districts (Stuyvesant Heights), class, particularly with respect to homeownership, is at the forefront of local politics. Nearly every competitive election in Bed-Stuy neatly straddles the lines of west and east. To the west, progressive insurgents annihilate machine-aligned incumbents, an outgrowth of left-lean renters and white homeowners emanating from Fort Greene and Clinton Hill. Farther east, closer to Ocean Hill-Brownsville, the dwindling number of Black working-class voters (renters or asset-rich, cash poor homeowners) rarely defect from the local establishment. Closer to Broadway (the Bed-Stuy–Bushwick border), the left-leaning, college educated renters re-assert themselves, albeit in smaller numbers. In the middle, around the aforementioned Marcus Garvey Boulevard, the two meet. The neighborhood’s many public housing developments (and senior centers) rarely buck their incumbents, prioritizing known candidates over ideology.
Eric Adams, himself a homeowner on Lafayette Avenue, was well-suited to motivate Black voters to the polls. When Adams spoke of the plight of the small landlord, exclaimed that newcomers should “Go Back to Iowa,” and intoned that New Yorkers did not have to choose between justice and safety, his message resoundingly resonated with Black New York.
This cycle, Andrew Cuomo has consistently polled best with Black voters, particularly Generation-X and Baby Boomers. He receives warm-welcomes at Baptist churches across Central Brooklyn and Southeast Queens. In head-to-head simulations against Mamdani, Cuomo leads by fifty-percent amongst the Black electorate.
However, can Cuomo — increasingly of suburban Westchester and tony Sutton Place — inspire Black seniors to come out to the polls en masse to catalyze his political resurrection?
Four years ago, Eric Adams held off the progressive tide in Bed-Stuy, Crown Heights, Flatbush, and Harlem. Does Andrew Cuomo have comparable juice, or will Zohran Mamdani’s under-45 avalanche carry the day?
The tide in Central Brooklyn may be turning.
“A timely snapshot of a historically-Black neighborhood — squeezed by burgeoning housing costs and the commodification of “Brooklyn,” on the frontlines of a socialist, unequivocally pro-Palestinian electoral project at the heart of the House Democratic Leader’s Congressional district — forced to reckon with a realignment of political and institutional power.”
Jackson Heights, Elmhurst, Corona, East Elmhurst
(State Senate District 13)
Every four years since 1989, Queens County has picked the Mayor of New York City, a track record unmatched by any other borough.
The bellwether of the bellwether, the 13th Senate District — south of LaGuardia Airport, north of the Long Island Expressway, east of the BQE, and west of Flushing-Meadows Park — best embodies the limitless nuance and political crosscurrents of the World’s Borough.
In 2021, Kathryn Garcia edged Eric Adams by the same margin (1%) of her citywide loss. The raw vote difference (161 ballots) in the final round was the closest of any Assembly, Senate or Council District in the five boroughs.
This year, a comparably close margin is on the horizon.
Jackson Heights is a neighborhood tailor-made for Zohran Mamdani. The democratic socialist remains well-positioned to dominate the high-turnout historic district adjacent to 37th Avenue — where his alliance with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and vaunted canvassing operation should juice the anti-Cuomo vote. Closer to Roosevelt Avenue, Mamdani will run-up-the-score with Asian Indian and Bangladeshi immigrants, a large (and growing) segment of the electorate in-and-around 74th Avenue. Furthermore, the Uganda-native is poised to win the South Asian middle and working-class precincts above Northern Boulevard.
South of Jackson Heights, nestled between Roosevelt Avenue and Broadway, lies Elmhurst, a predominantly working-class Chinese neighborhood. While Mamdani is expected to do very well with the South Asian electorate, East Asian voters (mostly Chinese) remain a genuine tossup. Andrew Cuomo, the multi-decade institution, has all the name recognition in the world; whereas Mamdani (endorsed by political trailblazer John Liu) has the foot soldiers to reach into the city’s many ethnic enclaves and deliver the insurgent’s message. Perhaps most importantly, without Andrew Yang on the ballot, will voter turnout crater in East Asian neighborhoods like Elmhurst?
Across Junction Boulevard is Corona, known for its large Latin American immigrant population. “North” Corona, above Roosevelt Avenue, is home to the largest concentration of Spanish-Speakers in New York City — with some blocks exceeding ninety-one-percent of all residents (according to the U.S. Census). Last November, these precincts, where the working-class meets the working-poor, saw the most pronounced shifts towards Donald Trump of anywhere in the five boroughs. In fact, hundreds of the neighborhood’s predominantly low-income, Hispanic residents voted for both Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Donald Trump, per my analysis. Here, where Eric Adams dominated his opponents four years ago, the well-known Andrew Cuomo is predicted to have the upper-hand.
Lastly, north of Astoria Boulevard lies East Elmhurst. Once the epicenter of the Black professional class (Jackie Robinson, Louis Armstrong, and Malcolm X all called the neighborhood home), longtime African American homeowners (East Elmhurst has the most continuity of residents of any neighborhood in New York City) continue to anchor the Democratic Primary electorate, despite the further racial and ethnic diversification of the neighborhood.
East Elmhurst and Lefrak City were the only two neighborhoods west of Flushing Meadows–Corona Park won by Joe Crowley and Melinda Katz. Andrew Cuomo is electorally stronger than both, and I predict he will comfortably lead in each enclave.
Ultimately, in a metaphor for Queens County itself, Senate District 13 will come down to voter turnout; with Zohran Mamdani winning the West, and Andrew Cuomo ahead in the East.
The wildcard is Northern Boulevard’s most famous resident: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Were AOC to meaningfully boost Mamdani, particularly amongst Latino voters at the heart of New York’s 14th Congressional District, the former Governor would be in trouble.
One more thing: do you know who represents this district in Albany?
Were Zohran Mamdani to emerge victorious in Senate District 13, the left would have a ready-made blueprint to unseat Ramos the following summer (Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas anyone?). However, if Cuomo crushes Mamdani in East Elmhurst and Corona, the incumbent’s future — questioned ad nauseam the past week — would appear secure.
The future of Ramos, and much more, will be on the line.
Parkchester
The ultimate test of Zohran Mamdani’s door-knocking operation will come in Parkchester, a uniquely diverse planned community tucked away in the East Bronx.
On the surface, Parkchester would be an unlikely place for leftist politics to thrive. In 2018, Andrew Cuomo won more than eighty-percent of the vote against Cynthia Nixon in Parkchester; while Eric Adams’ vote share exceeded fifty-percent versus his three closest rivals (facing Kathryn Garcia in the final round, Adams also surpassed 80%+). In fact, even Joe Crowley edged Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez here — despite the fact that AOC herself was a longstanding resident of the storied development.
Nonetheless, the Mamdani campaign has invested considerable resources in building support throughout Parkchester (and nearby Westchester Square). Steps from the #6 train and adjacent to the Cross Bronx Expressway, Parkchester, once “Whites Only,” has become a remarkable reflection of New York City’s mosaic, a place where working class people harbor middle-class dreams. Among the many immigrant groups who call the neighborhood home, Parkchester boasts a growing Bangladeshi and African population (many of whom are Muslim), two constituencies Mamdani is working diligently to engage. The one hundred-and-seventy-one buildings, affixed with beautiful Terracotta statues on their exterior, are between seven and thirteen stories tall — ideal for the canvassing operation that has become, in the face of eight-figure independent expenditures, Mamdani’s greatest competitive advantage. AOC’s endorsement, the hometown hero whose family once lived on Unionport Road, is one more talking point at the doors.
The fundamentals favor Andrew Cuomo, but the trends point to Zohran Mamdani. On June 24th, these 12,000+ apartments may have the answer.
Upper Manhattan
By far the largest region on the list, Upper Manhattan, the half-a-dozen neighborhoods north of Central Park (110th Street), remains a microcosm of New York City itself.
Along the West Side lies: Morningside Heights, an eclectic mix of students and upper middle-class cooperators (Garcia #1, Wiley #2); Hamilton Heights, traditionally a working-class Hispanic neighborhood, now contending with Columbia University’s ever-expanding footprint (Adams #1, Wiley #2); Washington Heights, split between the heavily-Dominican precincts east of Broadway (Adams #1) and the historically-Jewish, middle-class community of Hudson Heights atop bluffs of Fort Tryon (Garcia #1, Wiley #2); concluding with Inwood at the end of the A train, which follows a similar West (Wiley #1, Garcia #2) versus East (Adams #1) divide of race, class, and education.
Harlem spans many realities, stretching from the rezoned blocks (Levain Bakery, Douglas Elliman) of Frederick Douglass Boulevard to the Polo Grounds Houses on 155th Street. In spite of noticeable gentrification, Harlem has remained home to both the Black professional class (Strivers Row, Sugar Hill, Mount Morris Park historic district) and the aging middle-class (Esplanade Gardens, Riverton Square, Graham Court, Dunbar Apartments). While Maya Wiley bled into Eric Adams’ advantage among the neighborhood’s brownstone blocks, the former police captain won almost every precinct north of 125th Street, the de-facto demarcation line for gentrification. On the other side of Fifth Avenue, East Harlem stretches from 96th Street to the Harlem River. “Spanish Harlem” remains plurality Hispanic (Puerto Rican and Mexican), but higher voter participation rates from the neighborhood’s White (~20%) and Black (~35%) population shifts the Democratic electorate. Unsurprisingly, Eric Adams won East Harlem by double-digits.
I expect the former Governor to earn a majority of the vote in Harlem, given his commanding polling advantage among Black voters, while the democratic socialist easily carries left-leaning Morningside Heights. Adrienne Adams remains a natural fit for Harlem’s Black professional class, but whom will they rank down the ballot — Andrew Cuomo or Zohran Mamdani?
I’ll give Mamdani the slight edge in Hamilton Heights, while granting Cuomo a comparably narrow margin in Washington Heights. East Harlem remains a genuine tossup. Furthermore, I expect Mamdani to benefit handsomely from his cross endorsement with Brad Lander, not to mention the backing of beloved State Senator Robert Jackson, in liberal Hudson Heights.
While Mamdani’s canvassing operation cannot spend identical resources in every corner of the city, they have undoubtedly pounded the pavement north of Central Park. This dynamic, coupled with the further activation of college-educated Millennial and Gen-Z voters (remember, none of these neighborhoods have experienced a local DSA-style campaign to rally around), are potent ingredients for a surprise in Upper Manhattan on Election Night.
The outstanding question is whether — east of Broadway in Washington Heights and Inwood, some of the most densely rent-stabilized blocks in New York City — Mamdani’s “Rent Freeze” message can break through to the Dominican electorate; or will Andrew Cuomo’s institutional advantages, namely the endorsement of Rep. Adriano Espaillat, carry the day?
Bay Ridge
The only neighborhood in the five boroughs to vote for Barry Goldwater over Lyndon Johnson, Bay Ridge has slowly become one of New York City's Swing States at the municipal level. For decades, the local electorate was anchored by Italian and Irish homeowners — former police officers, firefighters, and civil servants — many of whom have called the neighborhood home for generations. Since the turn of the century, Bay Ridge has gradually diversified, now home to the largest Palestinian diaspora in New York City. The professional class, amidst an affordability crisis of housing and childcare, have trickled down the R train and Belt Parkway, changing the character of what once was an exclusively middle-class, white ethnic enclave. A purple state in the 20th century; the Democratic Primary now hosts all the action.
Of all the places we’ve discussed thus far, Bay Ridge is perhaps the best to canvass. Single-family homes define the residential side streets, while pre-war apartment houses line the avenues. A young Zohran Mamdani cut his political teeth in Bay Ridge, which he compared to “Astoria twenty-years ago,” while campaigning for Khader El-Yateem and Ross Barkan. Both proved influential on Mamdani’s trajectory, and the two: El-Yateem, a Palestinian-Lutheran minister from the West Bank; and Barkan, a secular Jew and award-winning journalist born-and-raised in Bay Ridge — were emblematic of the neighborhood’s ever-changing mosaic. Now, the local terrain, particularly north of 77th street (where the Palestinian population is concentrated) and east of 4th Avenue (more working-class), lends itself to Mamdani’s insurgent campaign and the volunteer army tasked with disseminating his message.
In 1977, Mario Cuomo ran for Mayor — finishing as the thrice runner-up to Ed Koch in the Democratic Primary, the Primary Runoff Election, and General Election. Each time, Bay Ridge was Cuomo’s best neighborhood, owed to the large Italian community. For as much as Bay Ridge has changed over the past half-century, the specter of the Cuomo family name — on Shore Road and Marine Avenue — still looms large.
Will the Bay Ridge of yore come out en masse to vote for Mario’s son?
Or will Zohran Mamdani, seven years later, finish what El-Yateem started?
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Thanks for this hyperlocal analysis! I write about NYC too (worked in city gov for a decade) and have been looking for the NYC political substacks and the algorithm gods delivered me to you! Glad to connect.
To paraphrase Hell Gate, your substack is truly the star of this election. Great piece and an excellent analysis.