10 Comments
User's avatar
Dora Mercedes's avatar

Did you see the endorsement video from Chi Ossé and John Liu in Mandarin? I feel like people are underestimating the impact of the videos in Spanish, Hindi, and now Mandarin. People want to be spoken to directly and nothing works better than speaking people's languages, especially in Queens where we have the trilingual ballots. I'm interested to see what happens on June 24.

Expand full comment
Anna Katherine Scanlon's avatar

Fantastic analysis, thank you!

Expand full comment
Goodman Peter's avatar

If you’re right the NYT should hire you as the polling analyst, their pollster has been consistently wrong, and, kudos for the endless hours you put in …

The NYT endorsement of Garcia almost vaunted her to election, the NYT almost vitriolic denunciation of Mamdani is a fatal Brutus like act, and, the faint admiration that Cuomo is qualified and begrudging like for Lander, all told, far more significant than AOC or other endorsements.

My friends who are Lander voters are not ranking Mandeni.

Although a Cuomo/Mandani/Adams head to head in November would be fascinating,

Of course if the BigBadBudgetBill passes the issue facing a new will be humongous budget cuts.

Once again Michael thanks for your efforts, the politic nerds appreciate your efforts

Expand full comment
donny rumsfeld's avatar

> My friends who are Lander voters are not ranking Mandeni.

Peter, you have 6 days to convince them why this is a fatalistic view and they will get Andrew Cuomo, opposed to everything they stand for, instead of Mamdani - who was literally endorsed by Lander himself. Otherwise they are not good friends of yours.

Expand full comment
newsjunkie's avatar

Some of the tables seem to show Cuomo/Mamdani percentages instead of Adams/Garcia?....

Expand full comment
Michael Lange's avatar

Adams/Garcia tables from 2021 are at the top

Cuomo/Mamdani tables for what Zohran needs in 2025 are at the bottom

Expand full comment
Sam's avatar

Adrienne’s vacillation is proof that she’s unfit to govern.

Expand full comment
t gil's avatar

Question: What the hell is up with turnout in AD 38? Is it just the nature of it being an underpopulated, bifurcated district with a lot of parkland or is it just an insanely low turnout district?

Expand full comment
Michael Lange's avatar

Very low participation district. Ridgewood is trending up turnout-wise (due to gentrification). Few Democratic Primary voters are left in Glendale. Large non-citizen immigrant populations in Woodhaven and South Richmond Hill.

Expand full comment
t gil's avatar

I'm shocked a generational talent like Jenifer Rajkumar hasn't juiced turnout

Expand full comment