really appreciate the fact that you keep your amazing analyses free, ngl.
Was looking forward to this eagerly, def met expectations.
Although I woulddd prefer your vibes-based neighbourhood analysis over reliance on polling, it's very cool — I gobbled your pre-primary content and I did notice that while you weren't right in the exact numbers (who could've been) — you were defff spot-on on practically all the *trends* in the neighborhoods you analysed, trends that were far more pronounced than expected.
looking forward to a similar analysis in the fall, would be interesting to see how the republican and independent voters alter the electoral dynamics (particularly in SI)
also, why is the UES *solid* anti-Mamdani in basically *every* projection here?
Great writing and data as usual. I don't think the Hasidic groups in Brooklyn will be determinative (as they were not in the primary) but between Cuomo and Adams and Sliwa, what do you think they will do, or will some back Mamdani so they have influence with the probable winner?
It looks like they were pretty split in the general election last time around, maybe with the exception of Boro Park which leaned pretty heavily towards Sliwa, but Adams has built tight relationships with many of the groups since being elected (see the Bedford Ave bike path drama for an example). All of the sects are pretty leery of Cuomo, with some even endorsing Adrienne Adams and Zellnor Myrie over him in the primary, so I wouldn't expect them to go with him unless the others drop out.
Older Black voters tend to take a wait and see approach; its been lost to time but its forgotten that it wasn't until Obama's win in Iowa in 08 that older black voters shifted his way, while his early campaign strength was similar to Mamdani - young college students/professionals, including black ones. Considering that, the traditional deep loyalty to the Democrats, the fact that black voters oppose Trump on practically every polled issue (and usually the most opposed), and Adams' closeness to Trump, Adams would need far more Republican votes to be competitive - which considering the usually racial dynamics of NYC, seems unlikely.
I'm curious about the effect of consolidation on GOP voters. 1] Do you think that significant portions of Sliwa's 2021 coalition will defect to Cuomo/Adams if Sliwa remains in the race? 2] Do you think that if Sliwa dropped out and endorsed Cuomo/Adams that GOP voters would go to the polls, given that they strongly dislike the two establishment Democratic candidates? 1] feels particularly important to me - the Cuomo and Adams campaigns are contingent on large numbers of conservative voters who already cast ballots against Adams defecting to prevent Mamdani from being elected, and if that isn't true Sliwa's floor is much higher than polling and prediction markets currently suggest.
Love the article! Many similar races saw a very large strategic voting component, with most voters rallying around the most viable candidate. many Chicago mayoral elections in the 80s saw <5% performances for republicans, in favour of moderate democrats. I appreciate your predictions, but i think the anti-Mamdani vote would coalesce around one candidate, regardless of wether they drop out.
I’m nervous that billionaires somewhere are recruiting a candidate still tba to run a write in campaign… I’m hoping that’s irrational haha. Love this piece!
You fail to address the laconic scenario, a very low turnout, "Since Mamdani is certain to win I'm just too busy to cast a vote ..." Zohan's competition is the NFL, which will dominate the news cycle and the elephant in the room, Trump, could Trump stir the pot ... challenge Zohan's citizenship. ... Yes, logic says Zohan will trash the opposition, these are illogical times
He got 50k of us out on the streets knocking doors and talking to our neighbors. We’re the campaign with the least issues getting out the vote. Please be serious.
really appreciate the fact that you keep your amazing analyses free, ngl.
Was looking forward to this eagerly, def met expectations.
Although I woulddd prefer your vibes-based neighbourhood analysis over reliance on polling, it's very cool — I gobbled your pre-primary content and I did notice that while you weren't right in the exact numbers (who could've been) — you were defff spot-on on practically all the *trends* in the neighborhoods you analysed, trends that were far more pronounced than expected.
looking forward to a similar analysis in the fall, would be interesting to see how the republican and independent voters alter the electoral dynamics (particularly in SI)
also, why is the UES *solid* anti-Mamdani in basically *every* projection here?
Great writing and data as usual. I don't think the Hasidic groups in Brooklyn will be determinative (as they were not in the primary) but between Cuomo and Adams and Sliwa, what do you think they will do, or will some back Mamdani so they have influence with the probable winner?
It looks like they were pretty split in the general election last time around, maybe with the exception of Boro Park which leaned pretty heavily towards Sliwa, but Adams has built tight relationships with many of the groups since being elected (see the Bedford Ave bike path drama for an example). All of the sects are pretty leery of Cuomo, with some even endorsing Adrienne Adams and Zellnor Myrie over him in the primary, so I wouldn't expect them to go with him unless the others drop out.
(in my best impression of a hapless, delusional guy): Don’t count out Jim Walden!
Older Black voters tend to take a wait and see approach; its been lost to time but its forgotten that it wasn't until Obama's win in Iowa in 08 that older black voters shifted his way, while his early campaign strength was similar to Mamdani - young college students/professionals, including black ones. Considering that, the traditional deep loyalty to the Democrats, the fact that black voters oppose Trump on practically every polled issue (and usually the most opposed), and Adams' closeness to Trump, Adams would need far more Republican votes to be competitive - which considering the usually racial dynamics of NYC, seems unlikely.
I'm curious about the effect of consolidation on GOP voters. 1] Do you think that significant portions of Sliwa's 2021 coalition will defect to Cuomo/Adams if Sliwa remains in the race? 2] Do you think that if Sliwa dropped out and endorsed Cuomo/Adams that GOP voters would go to the polls, given that they strongly dislike the two establishment Democratic candidates? 1] feels particularly important to me - the Cuomo and Adams campaigns are contingent on large numbers of conservative voters who already cast ballots against Adams defecting to prevent Mamdani from being elected, and if that isn't true Sliwa's floor is much higher than polling and prediction markets currently suggest.
Overconfidence is a fatal disease
Love the article! Many similar races saw a very large strategic voting component, with most voters rallying around the most viable candidate. many Chicago mayoral elections in the 80s saw <5% performances for republicans, in favour of moderate democrats. I appreciate your predictions, but i think the anti-Mamdani vote would coalesce around one candidate, regardless of wether they drop out.
I’m nervous that billionaires somewhere are recruiting a candidate still tba to run a write in campaign… I’m hoping that’s irrational haha. Love this piece!
You fail to address the laconic scenario, a very low turnout, "Since Mamdani is certain to win I'm just too busy to cast a vote ..." Zohan's competition is the NFL, which will dominate the news cycle and the elephant in the room, Trump, could Trump stir the pot ... challenge Zohan's citizenship. ... Yes, logic says Zohan will trash the opposition, these are illogical times
All these things are not deterrents to Mamdani's base
Z has to get his base back to the polls ....
He got 50k of us out on the streets knocking doors and talking to our neighbors. We’re the campaign with the least issues getting out the vote. Please be serious.
I doubt that will be an issue for him