really appreciate the fact that you keep your amazing analyses free, ngl.
Was looking forward to this eagerly, def met expectations.
Although I woulddd prefer your vibes-based neighbourhood analysis over reliance on polling, it's very cool — I gobbled your pre-primary content and I did notice that while you weren't right in the exact numbers (who could've been) — you were defff spot-on on practically all the *trends* in the neighborhoods you analysed, trends that were far more pronounced than expected.
looking forward to a similar analysis in the fall, would be interesting to see how the republican and independent voters alter the electoral dynamics (particularly in SI)
also, why is the UES *solid* anti-Mamdani in basically *every* projection here?
The UES is the richest, most elite, white establishment neighborhood in all of NYC. Precincts there next to Central Park (5th ave) went more than 70% for Cuomo
Great writing and data as usual. I don't think the Hasidic groups in Brooklyn will be determinative (as they were not in the primary) but between Cuomo and Adams and Sliwa, what do you think they will do, or will some back Mamdani so they have influence with the probable winner?
It looks like they were pretty split in the general election last time around, maybe with the exception of Boro Park which leaned pretty heavily towards Sliwa, but Adams has built tight relationships with many of the groups since being elected (see the Bedford Ave bike path drama for an example). All of the sects are pretty leery of Cuomo, with some even endorsing Adrienne Adams and Zellnor Myrie over him in the primary, so I wouldn't expect them to go with him unless the others drop out.
Objectively the best candidate in the race. Fix The City / NYBF25 should go all-in on him with a "Where's Waldo" themed campaign that capitalizes on his low-key decency. If they're doomed to lose, lose with honor. If they can win, win beautifully.
Like, Mamdani as a haloed, DemSoc Jesus passing out loaves and fishes with a hammer and sickle pin on his robe. The other three monsters hulking around him. And Jim Waldo peeking out from behind with a diffident, enigmatic smile.
Older Black voters tend to take a wait and see approach; its been lost to time but its forgotten that it wasn't until Obama's win in Iowa in 08 that older black voters shifted his way, while his early campaign strength was similar to Mamdani - young college students/professionals, including black ones. Considering that, the traditional deep loyalty to the Democrats, the fact that black voters oppose Trump on practically every polled issue (and usually the most opposed), and Adams' closeness to Trump, Adams would need far more Republican votes to be competitive - which considering the usually racial dynamics of NYC, seems unlikely.
I think Mamdani will be the next Mayor of NYC, though I find your various scenarios too optimistic. In particular, I'm skeptical that a 35–25 lead (assuming the accuracy of Roth Smith's survey) would balloon to a 60–40 landslide if Adams and Sliwa were to drop out.
In fact, I suspect Cuomo would have an odds-on probabilty to win — however narrowly — given that Cuomo is likely to overwhelmingly carry the anti-Mamdani vote due to his ideological proximity to those two.
Why do you project that Mamdani would win vs just Cuomo alone, whereas in the scenario where Adams drops out, Cuomo + Sliwa have a majority high enough to defeat Mamdani? I'm not saying I necessarily disagree that Mamdani's still the favorite, but it's interesting that those two scenarios differ with each other by that much.
Firstly, in the scenario where Adams drops out (Scenario #3 above) it appears that Cuomo+ Sliwa (totalling 49%) can tie Zohran at 49%, not defeat.
Secondly, my interpretation of Michael's analysis would be that:
a) Some of Sliwa's support wouldn't bleed over to Cuomo due to there being people who would vote purely on the Republican line but wouldn't vote for an Independent, especially one who is well-known as a Democrat in NY. Furthermore, Cuomo has consistently taken an anti-Trump stance in the primary. Accordingly, Cuomo can't pick up *all* of Sliwa's support which inherently puts him at sub-50% even taking only Scenario #3 numbers.
b) The sample size of voters is now smaller due to those who would stay at home. Accordingly, even if all of Zohran's voters remain static, the percentage of the electorate they make up is bigger. If we say, purely for illustration and not as a matter of actually guessing a realistic number, that half of Sliwa's voters (estimated 18%) stayed home, and all of Walden's were discarded, that's now only 89% of the original electorate. Accordingly, Zohran's 49% becomes 55% of the electorate purely because of the decreased electorate size. The more of Sliwa's voters stay home or don't vote for Cuomo, the greater that percentage seems.
c) Some Sliwa voters would cross to Mamdani. As discussed above, Cuomo is synonymous with the Democratic establishment and there are certainly at least *some* Sliwa voters who would cross over to the guy taking on the Establishment. Even 1-2% of the original would, in my "half of Sliwa voters stay home" example, get Mamdani up to 57%.
d) The impacts of a two-horse race versus a many-horse race. Now, while it may be argued that without a Republican in the race, Dems would be more willing to defect, it is also possible that Michael is determining that a more competitive race and a less fractured opposition makes the Mamdani base turn out more for fear of a loss and other voters more likely to coalesce around the Dem nominee/less free to swing to one of many seemingly viable options (third parties tend to be most viable when they are robust and competitive, so some people may be less willing to "stray" with fewer candidates on the ballot). Also, if Sliwa drops out and Cuomo courts the Trump-friendly wings of the electorate openly, it may alienate some Cuomo voters who are uncomfortable with all of the Trump supporters coalescing behind someone who they wanted to "fight Trump," thereby reducing Cuomo's support. Due to the presumably shrunk electorate, every % that Mamdani takes from Cuomo will count for more in Scenario #5 than in Scenario #3.
e) There could be other factors I'm not considering/privy to at play which Michael has considered to give Zohran that extra 3-5% from the base 55-57% to the 60%.
Overall, though, even if we don't get to 60% in the rematch purely from comparing Scenarios #3 and #5, it certainly doesn't appear as per Scenario #3 that Scenario #5 results in Zohran being an underdog. Additionally, it doesn't appear as though the scenarios really are *that* different to me.
Wow, your data is so cool! I was looking for something to tell me Mamdani's margin with renters, and here it is. Like the top commenter, I can't believe this is free either. I loved the line: "While Mamdani was actively expanding the electorate, reaching “non-prime” voters written off by the consultant class; Cuomo was relying on nothing fundamentally changing from four years prior"... Things really did change! I wrote a data deep dive uncovering where Mamdani might have persuaded Cuomo's voters, I'd be honored to know what you think! https://leegans.substack.com/p/data-show-mamdani-won-on-his-agenda?r=cuqb7
Love the article! Many similar races saw a very large strategic voting component, with most voters rallying around the most viable candidate. many Chicago mayoral elections in the 80s saw <5% performances for republicans, in favour of moderate democrats. I appreciate your predictions, but i think the anti-Mamdani vote would coalesce around one candidate, regardless of wether they drop out.
I think even in the scenario that all candidates stay on the ballot, I still don’t see Zohran getting under 60% of the vote. The unions and former Cuomo and Adams allies (Espaillat just backed Zohran) are steadily getting behind Zohran’s campaign.
But the fighter still remains” (Paul Simon, The Boxer)
Who is the fighter?
A duel on the great lawn with sabers or pistols at 75 feet or with microphones on the debate stage. It’s time to pick who is going to face off against Zohran Mamdani in November.
Who ever it is needs to hit the bricks and show New Yorkers in a very real down to earth way which local businesses are going to collapse under the weight of socialism. Who are the people who will be directly and indirectly damaged financially and hurt socially when businesses start to close down under the weight of socialism? Talk to the customers and the owners and the workers. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Fight, fight, fight for the votes not on TikTok but on the pavement.
Run with this: “Kill the bodegas and you kill the neighborhoods, kill the neighborhoods and you destroy the city. Capitalism builds, socialism steals.
Socialism will disrupt and destroy the following for New Yorkers: Safety, Schools, Sanitation, Startups, Social services, Subways, Streets…From A for Arts to Z for Zoo Mamdani will screw NYC for me and for you.
The keys to City Hall are the prize. Who is tough enough to take them?
I'm curious about the effect of consolidation on GOP voters. 1] Do you think that significant portions of Sliwa's 2021 coalition will defect to Cuomo/Adams if Sliwa remains in the race? 2] Do you think that if Sliwa dropped out and endorsed Cuomo/Adams that GOP voters would go to the polls, given that they strongly dislike the two establishment Democratic candidates? 1] feels particularly important to me - the Cuomo and Adams campaigns are contingent on large numbers of conservative voters who already cast ballots against Adams defecting to prevent Mamdani from being elected, and if that isn't true Sliwa's floor is much higher than polling and prediction markets currently suggest.
I’m nervous that billionaires somewhere are recruiting a candidate still tba to run a write in campaign… I’m hoping that’s irrational haha. Love this piece!
You fail to address the laconic scenario, a very low turnout, "Since Mamdani is certain to win I'm just too busy to cast a vote ..." Zohan's competition is the NFL, which will dominate the news cycle and the elephant in the room, Trump, could Trump stir the pot ... challenge Zohan's citizenship. ... Yes, logic says Zohan will trash the opposition, these are illogical times
He got 50k of us out on the streets knocking doors and talking to our neighbors. We’re the campaign with the least issues getting out the vote. Please be serious.
really appreciate the fact that you keep your amazing analyses free, ngl.
Was looking forward to this eagerly, def met expectations.
Although I woulddd prefer your vibes-based neighbourhood analysis over reliance on polling, it's very cool — I gobbled your pre-primary content and I did notice that while you weren't right in the exact numbers (who could've been) — you were defff spot-on on practically all the *trends* in the neighborhoods you analysed, trends that were far more pronounced than expected.
looking forward to a similar analysis in the fall, would be interesting to see how the republican and independent voters alter the electoral dynamics (particularly in SI)
also, why is the UES *solid* anti-Mamdani in basically *every* projection here?
The UES is the richest, most elite, white establishment neighborhood in all of NYC. Precincts there next to Central Park (5th ave) went more than 70% for Cuomo
Great writing and data as usual. I don't think the Hasidic groups in Brooklyn will be determinative (as they were not in the primary) but between Cuomo and Adams and Sliwa, what do you think they will do, or will some back Mamdani so they have influence with the probable winner?
It looks like they were pretty split in the general election last time around, maybe with the exception of Boro Park which leaned pretty heavily towards Sliwa, but Adams has built tight relationships with many of the groups since being elected (see the Bedford Ave bike path drama for an example). All of the sects are pretty leery of Cuomo, with some even endorsing Adrienne Adams and Zellnor Myrie over him in the primary, so I wouldn't expect them to go with him unless the others drop out.
(in my best impression of a hapless, delusional guy): Don’t count out Jim Walden!
Objectively the best candidate in the race. Fix The City / NYBF25 should go all-in on him with a "Where's Waldo" themed campaign that capitalizes on his low-key decency. If they're doomed to lose, lose with honor. If they can win, win beautifully.
Like, Mamdani as a haloed, DemSoc Jesus passing out loaves and fishes with a hammer and sickle pin on his robe. The other three monsters hulking around him. And Jim Waldo peeking out from behind with a diffident, enigmatic smile.
Older Black voters tend to take a wait and see approach; its been lost to time but its forgotten that it wasn't until Obama's win in Iowa in 08 that older black voters shifted his way, while his early campaign strength was similar to Mamdani - young college students/professionals, including black ones. Considering that, the traditional deep loyalty to the Democrats, the fact that black voters oppose Trump on practically every polled issue (and usually the most opposed), and Adams' closeness to Trump, Adams would need far more Republican votes to be competitive - which considering the usually racial dynamics of NYC, seems unlikely.
I think Mamdani will be the next Mayor of NYC, though I find your various scenarios too optimistic. In particular, I'm skeptical that a 35–25 lead (assuming the accuracy of Roth Smith's survey) would balloon to a 60–40 landslide if Adams and Sliwa were to drop out.
In fact, I suspect Cuomo would have an odds-on probabilty to win — however narrowly — given that Cuomo is likely to overwhelmingly carry the anti-Mamdani vote due to his ideological proximity to those two.
Why do you project that Mamdani would win vs just Cuomo alone, whereas in the scenario where Adams drops out, Cuomo + Sliwa have a majority high enough to defeat Mamdani? I'm not saying I necessarily disagree that Mamdani's still the favorite, but it's interesting that those two scenarios differ with each other by that much.
Firstly, in the scenario where Adams drops out (Scenario #3 above) it appears that Cuomo+ Sliwa (totalling 49%) can tie Zohran at 49%, not defeat.
Secondly, my interpretation of Michael's analysis would be that:
a) Some of Sliwa's support wouldn't bleed over to Cuomo due to there being people who would vote purely on the Republican line but wouldn't vote for an Independent, especially one who is well-known as a Democrat in NY. Furthermore, Cuomo has consistently taken an anti-Trump stance in the primary. Accordingly, Cuomo can't pick up *all* of Sliwa's support which inherently puts him at sub-50% even taking only Scenario #3 numbers.
b) The sample size of voters is now smaller due to those who would stay at home. Accordingly, even if all of Zohran's voters remain static, the percentage of the electorate they make up is bigger. If we say, purely for illustration and not as a matter of actually guessing a realistic number, that half of Sliwa's voters (estimated 18%) stayed home, and all of Walden's were discarded, that's now only 89% of the original electorate. Accordingly, Zohran's 49% becomes 55% of the electorate purely because of the decreased electorate size. The more of Sliwa's voters stay home or don't vote for Cuomo, the greater that percentage seems.
c) Some Sliwa voters would cross to Mamdani. As discussed above, Cuomo is synonymous with the Democratic establishment and there are certainly at least *some* Sliwa voters who would cross over to the guy taking on the Establishment. Even 1-2% of the original would, in my "half of Sliwa voters stay home" example, get Mamdani up to 57%.
d) The impacts of a two-horse race versus a many-horse race. Now, while it may be argued that without a Republican in the race, Dems would be more willing to defect, it is also possible that Michael is determining that a more competitive race and a less fractured opposition makes the Mamdani base turn out more for fear of a loss and other voters more likely to coalesce around the Dem nominee/less free to swing to one of many seemingly viable options (third parties tend to be most viable when they are robust and competitive, so some people may be less willing to "stray" with fewer candidates on the ballot). Also, if Sliwa drops out and Cuomo courts the Trump-friendly wings of the electorate openly, it may alienate some Cuomo voters who are uncomfortable with all of the Trump supporters coalescing behind someone who they wanted to "fight Trump," thereby reducing Cuomo's support. Due to the presumably shrunk electorate, every % that Mamdani takes from Cuomo will count for more in Scenario #5 than in Scenario #3.
e) There could be other factors I'm not considering/privy to at play which Michael has considered to give Zohran that extra 3-5% from the base 55-57% to the 60%.
Overall, though, even if we don't get to 60% in the rematch purely from comparing Scenarios #3 and #5, it certainly doesn't appear as per Scenario #3 that Scenario #5 results in Zohran being an underdog. Additionally, it doesn't appear as though the scenarios really are *that* different to me.
Phenomenal stuff. I don't even bother with the New York Times anymore. "Clown Car" got me laughing audibly.
Wow, your data is so cool! I was looking for something to tell me Mamdani's margin with renters, and here it is. Like the top commenter, I can't believe this is free either. I loved the line: "While Mamdani was actively expanding the electorate, reaching “non-prime” voters written off by the consultant class; Cuomo was relying on nothing fundamentally changing from four years prior"... Things really did change! I wrote a data deep dive uncovering where Mamdani might have persuaded Cuomo's voters, I'd be honored to know what you think! https://leegans.substack.com/p/data-show-mamdani-won-on-his-agenda?r=cuqb7
Overconfidence is a fatal disease
Love the article! Many similar races saw a very large strategic voting component, with most voters rallying around the most viable candidate. many Chicago mayoral elections in the 80s saw <5% performances for republicans, in favour of moderate democrats. I appreciate your predictions, but i think the anti-Mamdani vote would coalesce around one candidate, regardless of wether they drop out.
Interesting to note that Sliwa himself took Scenario 4 off the table today
I think even in the scenario that all candidates stay on the ballot, I still don’t see Zohran getting under 60% of the vote. The unions and former Cuomo and Adams allies (Espaillat just backed Zohran) are steadily getting behind Zohran’s campaign.
“In the clearing stands a boxer
And a fighter by his trade
And he carries the reminders
Of every glove that laid him down
Or cut him till he cried out
In his anger and his shame
"I am leaving, I am leaving"
But the fighter still remains” (Paul Simon, The Boxer)
Who is the fighter?
A duel on the great lawn with sabers or pistols at 75 feet or with microphones on the debate stage. It’s time to pick who is going to face off against Zohran Mamdani in November.
Who ever it is needs to hit the bricks and show New Yorkers in a very real down to earth way which local businesses are going to collapse under the weight of socialism. Who are the people who will be directly and indirectly damaged financially and hurt socially when businesses start to close down under the weight of socialism? Talk to the customers and the owners and the workers. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Fight, fight, fight for the votes not on TikTok but on the pavement.
Run with this: “Kill the bodegas and you kill the neighborhoods, kill the neighborhoods and you destroy the city. Capitalism builds, socialism steals.
Socialism will disrupt and destroy the following for New Yorkers: Safety, Schools, Sanitation, Startups, Social services, Subways, Streets…From A for Arts to Z for Zoo Mamdani will screw NYC for me and for you.
The keys to City Hall are the prize. Who is tough enough to take them?
I'm curious about the effect of consolidation on GOP voters. 1] Do you think that significant portions of Sliwa's 2021 coalition will defect to Cuomo/Adams if Sliwa remains in the race? 2] Do you think that if Sliwa dropped out and endorsed Cuomo/Adams that GOP voters would go to the polls, given that they strongly dislike the two establishment Democratic candidates? 1] feels particularly important to me - the Cuomo and Adams campaigns are contingent on large numbers of conservative voters who already cast ballots against Adams defecting to prevent Mamdani from being elected, and if that isn't true Sliwa's floor is much higher than polling and prediction markets currently suggest.
I’m nervous that billionaires somewhere are recruiting a candidate still tba to run a write in campaign… I’m hoping that’s irrational haha. Love this piece!
You fail to address the laconic scenario, a very low turnout, "Since Mamdani is certain to win I'm just too busy to cast a vote ..." Zohan's competition is the NFL, which will dominate the news cycle and the elephant in the room, Trump, could Trump stir the pot ... challenge Zohan's citizenship. ... Yes, logic says Zohan will trash the opposition, these are illogical times
All these things are not deterrents to Mamdani's base
Z has to get his base back to the polls ....
He got 50k of us out on the streets knocking doors and talking to our neighbors. We’re the campaign with the least issues getting out the vote. Please be serious.
I doubt that will be an issue for him