Four Months to November

Will the clown car General Election for New York City Mayor actually be competitive?

---

Can you believe it has only been two weeks?

When the polls closed at 9pm on Tuesday, June 24th, we were expecting not only a long night ahead, but a week of anguish and suspense until the ranked choice voting results were revealed. And, even if Zohran Mamdani squeaked out a victory in the Democratic Primary, a long and bloody four months awaited, in advance of November’s General Election.

Instead, the race was over in less than an hour. Mamdani’s lead (43.5% to 36.4%) was so prohibitive that Andrew Cuomo conceded before 11pm: the former Governor and months long frontrunner had seen enough. As a new day dawned in New York City, the anti-Mamdani class (Billionaires, Editorial Board higher-ups, Pro-Israel groups) awoke in a cold sweat.

Not only had their worst nightmare come true, these elites — used to moving and shaking — lacked any quick fix for their socialist headache.

Plans for Andrew Cuomo to vigorously contest the General Election came to an abrupt halt after a devastatingly poor performance. Mayor Eric Adams, whose career was left for dead following an alleged quid pro quo with the Trump administration, was suddenly receiving a second-look from the anti-Mamdani forces put off by Cuomo’s meltdown. The word of the day, used over and over again to detail the mood of Bill Ackman and other financial and business elites, was “panic.” Former Governor David Patterson and supermarket billionaire John Catsimatidis called a press conference urging all the non-Mamdani candidates to coalesce, despite no incentive to do so.

Defeating Zohran Mamdani, now the Democratic nominee for Mayor of New York City, would be a herculean task for even the most unified and strategic opposition. For the current clown car of Cuomo, Adams, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa — it might be impossible.

---

Andrew Cuomo's campaign in the Democratic Primary came to a disastrous and fitting end, and that may be putting it nicely. The wire-to-wire polling leader not only lost in a stunning upset to the candidate he explicitly wanted to face, a thirty-three year old democratic socialist (Cuomo frequently derided his lack of experience and routinely butchered his name), but the final margin was not particularly close, ultimately greater than twelve points.

Be careful what you wish for.

Compared to the last time Andrew Cuomo was on the Democratic Party ballot in New York City, when he won sixty-five percent of the vote against actress Cynthia Nixon, and the former Governor’s paltry thirty-six percent versus Mamdani is properly contextualized as the epic collapse it was. Afraid of hard questions and protesters alike, Cuomo deliberately avoided the press for much of the campaign, in an effort to preserve his lead and simply run-out-the-clock. Not only did the sixty-seven year old Cuomo appear a step slow next to the thirty-three year old Mamdani, but the former Governor, a mainstay of New York politics for half a century, neatly embodied the Democratic Party status quo that many voters have come to revile.

Upon the frontrunner’s shocking and swift defeat, his longtime spokesperson, Rich Azzopardi, attributed Mamdani’s victory to a surge of new voters, quick to point out that Cuomo ultimately received more votes than Eric Adams did four years prior. Such an excuse was commensurate with how the Cuomo campaign conducted itself from start to finish. Amidst ever-worsening costs of living and an increasingly polarized national political environment, the Cuomo campaign remained flat-footed and overly cautious, intent to stick to a bygone twentieth century script; whereas Mamdani, more willing buck traditional orthodoxy and embrace cutting-edge campaign media, went on to rewrite the playbook entirely. Cuomo’s “campaign” was hardly that, having outsourced the lionshare of paid media and field organizing to their allied Super PAC, “Fix The City,” whose coffers were filled to the tune of twenty-five million dollars. Cuomo’s early polling lead among working-class Democrats was soft, particularly among Hispanic and Asian voters; a mirage the frontrunner took for granted. By the end, Cuomo’s coalition had significantly hemorrhaged, to the point where the former Governor’s support was reduced to the low-income and the ultra wealthy, in addition to the Black middle-class. The vast and diverse in-between, specifically the renter-class (where the majority of New Yorkers reside) most burdened by the cost of living crisis articulated by the insurgent, was where Mamdani trounced Cuomo.

While Mamdani was actively expanding the electorate, reaching “non-prime” voters written off by the consultant class; Cuomo was relying on nothing fundamentally changing from four years prior, seemingly unable to comprehend that each candidate had an obligation to motivate their respective supporters. As such, Mamdani’s base (young voters of all races and classes, white-collar professionals, South and East Asians, Muslims) voted at significantly higher rates than four years ago; whereas Cuomo’s support, compared to Adams, either declined or plateaued. The pronounced enthusiasm gap, evidenced by thousands of excited canvassers compared to halfhearted union workers forced by leadership to attend Cuomo’s rallies, played out on Election Day, where temperatures peaked at 100 degrees.

Mamdani began his day with a sunrise press conference in Astoria Park: “A young man running through the tape, up against an old man paying and pressing people to push his message,” journalist Harry Siegel aptly observed. Cuomo did not appear until 11am, promptly voting at his polling location in the tony Manhattan neighborhood of Sutton Place. Despite endorsements from Jessica Ramos and Whitney Tilson, Cuomo only ranked himself, before being whisked away in his Dodge Charger, not to be seen again until after the polls closed, when he abruptly gave his concession speech. While Mamdani criss-crossed the municipality amidst the worst heat wave of the year, Cuomo was a ghost. Those moments, on the final day of the campaign, were a metaphor for the entire race: Mamdani wanting the job and worked tirelessly to earn it; while Cuomo does the bare minimum, embodying complacency and indifference; behaving as though, after serving a decade as Governor, he was above being Mayor.

---

In the days following Zohran Mamdani’s win, calls have grown for Andrew Cuomo, once the odds on favorite (90%+) to win the Democratic nomination, to throw in the towel entirely and drop out of the General Election, where he still holds a ballot line (“Fight and Deliver”). Bill Ackman (a megadonor to both Donald Trump and Cuomo’s Super PAC), the de-facto leader of business elites’ efforts to stop Mamdani, wrote: “it was abundantly clear in [Cuomo’s] body language, his subdued energy and his proposals to beat Mamdani, that he is not up for the fight.” The Reverend Al Sharpton, a longtime ally of the former Governor, urged him to step aside: “in the best interest of the legacy of Andrew Cuomo, he ought to let [Eric Adams and Zohran Mamdani] have a one-on-one.” Given that Cuomo’s strongest institutional support came from both the Black political class and the financial elite during the Democratic Primary, the defections of both Ackman and Sharpton are particularly devastating, and could open the floodgates in the coming weeks. While longtime loyalists like Melissa DeRosa and Rich Azzopardi will inevitably stick by Cuomo come hell or high water, much of the consultant class that flocked to the scandal-scarred frontrunner, sensing a “buy low” opportunity that would eventually pay dividends in City Hall, have already abandoned ship (look at all the leaks) in an effort to preserve their respective reputations.

Nonetheless, if Andrew Cuomo is mortally wounded electorally, how would one describe Eric Adams, whose numbers are worse across the board?

The desperate efforts to resuscitate Adams, whose standing has been decimated by corruption scandals and an alleged quid pro quo with the Trump administration, are nothing if not predictable. Once the “Biden of Brooklyn,” Adams has been relegated to an afterthought the past few months, tainted by a series of indictments and resignations that plagued his administration from fall through spring. Adams bypassed the Democratic Primary, where his ties to the Republican President would have been nothing short of a political albatross, because he knew a humiliating defeat was in the cards. In March, Adams' job approval had dropped to an “all-time low” of twenty-percent, per Quinnipiac University. Each Party was aligned on their disdain for the scandal-scarred Mayor, as Adams’ approval rating was equally atrocious among Democrats (-63), Independents (-43), and Republicans (-17).

How on earth is one supposed to win a General Election with those numbers?

For as damaged as Andrew Cuomo is, Eric Adams' weakness lies in a different stratosphere. Theoretically, Cuomo and Adams have similar bases of support: moderate Black voters, ultra-wealthy Manhattanites, Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, and conservative white ethnic voters in the outer boroughs. However, even an Adams-friendly poll, designed to generate momentum for the incumbent’s resurrection, showed the Mayor trailing Cuomo by ten percent. Having both Cuomo and Adams in the race is a surefire path to cannibalizing the anti-Mamdani vote, ensuring the Democratic nominee coasts to victory.

To maximize their chances of stopping Mamdani, the two rivals must consolidate, soon. However, that is far easier said than done, given there is little incentive for either to stand down. Indeed, there is no sole power broker remaining in New York City politics capable of cohering both men, each facing a do-or-die moment in their respective careers, behind a unified approach. Cuomo’s camp floated using an Independent poll in September as the means to narrow the crowded anti-Mamdani field, a self-serving overture that was predictably rebuffed by Adams: “Andrew, are you that arrogant?”

This consolidation calculus does not even include Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, who earned twenty-seven percent of the vote four years ago. Sliwa, who has been approached by allies of the Mayor about abandoning his ballot line (through a potential appointment to the Trump administration), said the only way he would relinquish the Republican nomination would be if “[they] figure out a way to put me in a pine box and bury me six feet under.” The Republican ballot line in New York City, while too polarizing in the Trump era to win a citywide election, nonetheless will carry several hundreds of thousands of (non-Mamdani) votes in November. In lieu of ranked choice voting (confined to the primary), those ballots will inevitably be spent on the unviable Sliwa. While the GOP nominee will perform well in Staten Island and Southern Brooklyn, the founder of the Guardian Angels will come across as fringe and unserious by the upper-class urban core; subsequently dooming the red beret wearing Sliwa in the first General Election of Trump’s 2.0.

Both Rudy Guliani and Michael Bloomberg won five combined terms as Mayor, despite the overwhelming Democratic registration advantage across New York City, because of their ability to make inroads among white-collar voters in Manhattan. A solid performance among Manhattan Democrats, when combined with overwhelming margins among white ethnic Independents and Republicans, was enough to produce a five borough majority during the 1990’s and 2000’s. While the city’s demographics have changed significantly in the following decades, the formula for defeating Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani would be similar: perform well with affluent moderates in Manhattan, hope for continued Democratic erosion in Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods, and consolidate the Republican base.

However, both Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams are attempting to add their own unique wrinkle: convince Black voters, the demographic most loyal to the Democratic Party, to defect from their traditional political home — at least this November. Certainly, the one segment of Andrew Cuomo’s coalition that held up this June was the Black electorate, as the former Governor swept Canarsie, Cambria Heights, and Co-op City. And, while Eric Adams’ approval rating has collapsed across the Democratic base, his standing with Black voters, once unimpeachable, has diminished the least (although not exactly a high bar). Of the two Independent candidates, Cuomo remains objectively stronger among the Black electorate; in surveys taken prior to Adams’ departure from the Democratic Primary, the incumbent Mayor was handily losing his (former) base to the well-known ex-Governor. Nonetheless, with four more months to build relationships at churches and senior centers, Zohran Mamdani, armed with the Democratic ballot line, will undoubtedly improve his performance in Black neighborhoods come November.

Mamdani’s coalition, even for a Democratic nominee, is somewhat unique. Zohran is viewed skeptically by the financial and media elite that have come to define the Party nationally, performing best with less likely voters: middle-income renters, Millennials, urban professionals, Muslims, self-identified progressives. The previous three Democratic Mayors (David Dinkins, Bill de Blasio, Eric Adams) had won with robust support from Black voters: the only demographic group Mamdani lost in the Primary. Instead, Mamdani’s support emanated from younger voters of all classes — owed to a ubiquitous social media presence coupled with an unprecedented canvassing operation — which helped the charismatic insurgent build support in outer borough neighborhoods where other left-leaning had previously stumbled. Here, Mamdani showed a genuine ability to win back constituencies realigning away from the Democratic Party with a relentless focus on economics. In working-class Hispanic (Cypress Hills, Corona), Asian (Elmhurst, Bensonhurst), and Muslim (Westchester Square, Jamaica Hills) enclaves that experienced the most pronounced shifts towards Donald Trump last November, Zohran Mamdani thoroughly outclassed Andrew Cuomo.

As we look ahead to November, this creates a fascinating dynamic. Zohran Mamdani draws his core support from constituencies that are increasing their share of New York City’s electorate by the day: college-educated urban professionals of the urban core (staunchly blue) and working-class Hispanic and Asian communities in the outer boroughs (trending red). Whereas Andrew Cuomo is expected to perform best with the demographics slowly losing their foothold in the five boroughs: middle-class Black voters (staunchly blue), Irish and Italian homeowners (purple and red), ultra-wealthy Manhattanites (blue in the Trump era), and Orthodox Jews (blood red). Ironically, the Democratic nominee performs best with the very constituencies most disillusioned by the Party whose banner he now carries; whereas the leading Independent candidate sees his greatest support among the most loyal pillar of the Democratic electorate.

---

In closing, I want to review and forecast a handful of scenarios and permutations for the General Election. Originally, I planned to entirely rely on my own vibes to estimate the leanings of the electorate (which to be fair, humble brag, proved more accurate than almost every poll in the Democratic Primary). However, well-respected pollster (and friend of the program) Evan Roth Smith of Slingshot Strategies generously shared some results from his five-way General Election survey, the first independent poll of the race.

One important caveat, Evan’s poll did not list party affiliation for each respective candidate, which would have undoubtedly aided Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani (and, to a lesser extent, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa). Nonetheless, the lack of a (D) identification next to Mamdani’s name makes the forthcoming numbers all the more impressive.

Overall, Mamdani (35%) led Cuomo (25%) by ten-percent, while both Curtis Sliwa (14%) and Eric Adams (11%) noticeably trailed. The Democratic nominee was buoyed by an advantage with every racial group: Whites (+9), Blacks (+3), Latinos (+21), and Asians (+17). Mamdani easily wins Democratic voters polled in the survey compared to Cuomo (47% vs. 30%); in addition to besting the field by double-digits among Independent voters (32%), an oft-misunderstood electorate that skews relatively young. Of those who send their children to public school, Mamdani leads by thirteen percent. Among voters aged 18-44, the democratic socialist led by thirty-one percent (Cuomo leads both ages 45-64 and 65+), more evidence the Generation Gap will endure (and potentially widen) through November.

Furthermore, Mamdani (38%) boasts an advantage with public sector union employees, compared to Cuomo and Sliwa (both 20%). Among those who “own” their housing unit, there is a relatively small gap between the top-two candidates (Mamdani+4) that widens significantly amongst the renter class (Mamdani+16). Ultimately, Mamdani leads in four of the five boroughs: Manhattan (+14), Brooklyn (+23), Queens (+2), and The Bronx (+1).

A cursory glance at the top-three candidates' favorability — Zohran Mamdani (+4), Andrew Cuomo (-2), and Eric Adams (-34) — reveals the harsh truth that the General Election is a two-person race, if that. Were Cuomo to be pushed out altogether, or Adams and Sliwa to defiantly remain in the contest despite their diminished odds, Mamdani would walk to victory in November.

And, even if Cuomo miraculously consolidates the anti-Mamdani opposition, there is ample evidence to suggest the former Governor is utterly incapable — despite another avalanche of outside spending on his behalf — of running the type of vigorous campaign, absent the many institutions he has long taken for granted, that would be necessary to usurp the Democratic nominee.

Nonetheless, using both the results of Evan’s poll coupled with my own intuition, I want to preview the many scenarios that potentially await us in the coming months — and whether any permutation would be enough to make Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani sweat out the result.

---

Scenario #1 – The Clown Car

Ego prevails and no one drops, allowing Zohran Mamdani to cruise to victory.

Likelihood: The most plausible outcome, given the anti-Mamdani coalition’s dysfunction.

Coalition Map: Zohran Mamdani runs up the score with “Vote Blue No Matter Who” Manhattanites and across Brownstone Brooklyn and The Commie Corridor, while furthering his inroads with Hispanic and Asian voters in Brooklyn, Queens, and The Bronx. The presence of both Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams on the ballot allows Mamdani to win a plurality of the vote in several Black neighborhoods, allowing the democratic socialist to coast to victory with an overwhelming mandate.

Scenario #2 – Cuomo Calls it Quits

Andrew Cuomo drops out, allowing the mortally wounded Eric Adams to consolidate some support from wealthy elites and Black voters. Nonetheless, many “Cuomo voters” either stay home or cast their ballot for the Democratic nominee, leading to a Zohran Mamdani landslide.

Likelihood: Plausible. Cuomo ran a dreadful Primary campaign and is already bleeding support ahead of November. Eric Adams recently mused that “[Cuomo] doesn’t have the legs” for another four months of campaigning. After watching the final few weeks of the primary, where the frontrunner benefited from every institutional advantage and still lost by double digits, that point is hard to dispute.

Coalition Map: Zohran Mamdani wins in a landslide against the disgraced Eric Adams and the hard-ceiling of Curtis Sliwa; both of whom are radioactive to white-collar Democrats. In many working-class Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods across the outer boroughs, Mamdani and Sliwa place first and second, with Eric Adams a distant third.

Scenario #3 – God Talks to Eric

Eric Adams miraculously drops out, allowing Andrew Cuomo to coalesce the center. Cuomo performs better than Adams as the lone Independent, but the former Governor still falls short to Zohran Mamdani.

Likelihood: Eric Adams throwing in the towel? It would take an Act Of God.

Coalition Map: While Andrew Cuomo is better suited than Eric Adams to build a viable General Election coalition, their shortcomings are similar: Manhattan erosion versus the Democratic Party ballot line, diminished support from working-class Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods, and “losing” support from White Ethnics and Orthodox Jews to Republican Curtis Sliwa. As such, even if Cuomo peels off a plurality of Black voters to his “Fight and Deliver” ballot line, he’ll be hard-pressed to reverse the steady attrition of his support that we witnessed during the Democratic Primary.

Scenario #4 – Donald Trump places a call

Curtis Sliwa is pushed out of the race while business elites abandon Andrew Cuomo, leaving Eric Adams as the default anti-Mamdani candidate, producing a shotgun marriage of middle-class Republicans and conservative working-class Democrats that ultimately falls short versus the Democratic nominee.

Likelihood: Other than Scenario #1, this may be the proverbial “dark horse” outcome.

Coalition Map: Eric Adams, uniquely unpopular with all parties and demographic groups, would be a dream one-versus-one opponent for Zohran Mamdani; a weaker redux of Andrew Cuomo that would allow the Democratic nominee to raise his (already high) ceiling with working-and-middle class voters, particularly in the outer boroughs (including Staten Island). While the Mayor performs respectably among White Ethnic voters as the sole Mamdani opponent, his unpopularity depresses turnout and keeps his advantage modest. Most damningly, Adams’ pronounced weakness in Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn makes the math impossible. While the incumbent would attempt to position the race as a referendum on Mamdani’s ability to lead the city, the contest would inevitably drift to the former’s administration, which, despite a noticeable drop in crime, has been tainted by high-profile cases of corruption; most likely leading to a landslide for the insurgent.

Scenario #5 – The Rematch

The deck is cleared for Andrew Cuomo, leading to a tense, but ultimately non-competitive race with Zohran Mamdani.

Likelihood: The best chance the atrophying political establishment has of defeating Zohran Mamdani, meaning incompetence and selfishness will likely foil this plan before it even begins.

Coalition Map: In many respects, Andrew Cuomo would be betting on a similar map to that of the Democratic Primary, with the hope of benefiting from higher turnout from the city’s conservative enclaves to counter Zohran Mamdani’s increased support in Black communities. However, Cuomo would continue to hemorrhage support from working-class Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods, among the youngest electorates in the five boroughs, while paying some price among die-hard Democrats (Jewish liberals, Black homeowners). To have any chance in November, the former Governor will need to win back many of the affluent Manhattanites he lost (or failed to motivate) in the Democratic Primary, while also expanding the electorate in Staten Island, Southern Brooklyn, and Eastern Queens (easier said than done).

Indeed, absent a seismic change in the fundamentals of the race, Zohran Mamdani should be the overwhelming favorite to prevail in November.

---

Connect With Me:

Follow me on Twitter @MichaelLangeNYC

Email me at Michael.James.Lange@gmail.com