Brooklyn vs. Manhattan
A political sea change between the boroughs? Or a reckoning for the professional left?
“I like them both.”
This friendly sentiment is rarely heard when discussing the top-two contenders in the Mayoral race, Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani.
Yet, such is the prevailing feeling in the Democratic Primary for New York City Comptroller, where only a handful of issues differentiate Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine and Brooklyn City Council Member Justin Brannan — the quadrennial battle between two nerdy white guys for the second (or third) most powerful position in local government.
Instead, the contest is shaping up to be a battle of aesthetics: Justin Brannan as the populist bulldog, an underdog representing the purple states of the outer boroughs; and Mark Levine, the policy-oriented public servant, hailing from the blue-no-matter-who urban core.
A high-profile test of institutional power between liberal Manhattan and progressive Brooklyn.
Mark Levine is the rare elected official who began his political odyssey with two consecutive defeats — but still managed to cultivate a successful career. Neither loss came at the hands of a nobody, as Levine was defeated by both Robert Jackson (placing second in a ten-candidate field for City Council in 2001) and Adriano Espaillat (finishing second once again, this time for an overlapping State Senate seat, nine years later). Indeed, such was life on the hyper-competitive West Side of Upper Manhattan.
Nonetheless, the founder of a local credit union for low-income families in Washington Heights, Levine remained well-respected across Upper Manhattan. Having paid his dues and waited his turn, the District Leader seized opportunity in 2013, easily winning a comfortable plurality for the Seventh Council District. Already on his third campaign, the Maryland-native had become adept at navigating vastly different Democratic constituencies: Dominican-American tenants in Washington Heights and Manhattan Valley, Jewish cooperators with liberal politics on the Upper West Side and Hudson Heights, not to mention some of the city’s largest public housing developments (Frederick Douglass, Grant, Manhattanville). Against Espaillat, who quickly became the most powerful politico in Upper Manhattan, Levine had even campaigned in the leafy Bronx pseudo suburbs of Riverdale and Spuyten Duyvil.
In the City Council, Levine chaired the “Jewish Caucus,” while serving as the lead sponsor on landmark right to counsel legislation for low-income tenants facing eviction in housing court. While his dark horse bid for the Speakership fell short to fellow Manhattanite Corey Johnson, Levine was easily re-elected. While New Yorkers were trapped inside (and on their phones) at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, Levine remained ubiquitous on social media with respect to disseminating public health information.
Termed out of the City Council, he ran for Manhattan Borough President in 2021. Brad Hoylman, a liberal stalwart whose State Senate district stretched from Stuyvesant Town to Hell’s Kitchen, proved to be his toughest competition. On Election Day, Levine swept almost every block north of Lincoln Center: the Upper West Side, Morningside Heights, West Harlem, Washington Heights, and Inwood. After the dust settled in ranked-choice-voting, he had defeated Hoylman by seven-and-a-half points. Levine consolidated the old-moneyed, traditionally-moderate Upper East Side and the liberal Upper West Side. The man who spoke fluent Spanish and Hebrew won both historically-Jewish Hudson Heights and the Dominican-majority blocks east of Broadway. His first round plurality in Harlem became a thirty-point majority. Across all of Upper Manhattan, he lost only three precincts.
His coalition — White, Black, Hispanic — mirrored the five borough mosaic. Without a doubt, Mark Levine had the makings of someone who could, one day, become Mayor of New York City.
A world away from Northern Manhattan, Justin Brannan cut his teeth in Southern Brooklyn. The vegetarian, ex-punk rocker and Bear Stearns financier served as the Director of Legislative Affairs for Council Member “Vinnie” Gentile, before running to succeed his boss in 2017.
While Bay Ridge’s days of being the only district in the five boroughs to vote for Barry Goldwater over Lyndon Johnson were fargone; at the municipal level, the neighborhood was still considered one of New York City’s Purple States. Amidst the lower-turnout off-year elections, insulated from Presidential and Midterm cycles, the electorate continued to be anchored by the Italian and Irish homeowners — former police officers, firefighters, and civil servants — who had called the neighborhood home for generations. At every opportunity, Bay Ridge had resoundingly supported Republicans Rudy Guliani and Michael Bloomberg on their way to five consecutive terms in City Hall. In the State Senate, the neighborhood had been represented by Republican Marty Golden — a former police officer that voted against same-sex marriage — for over a decade. And, while the area’s City Council district — which extended east into the GOP-strongholds of Dyker Heights, Bath Beach and New Utrecht — was nonetheless held by a Gentile, a nominal Democrat, the General Election would undoubtedly be close.
But first, Brannan had to win the Democratic Primary, where he encountered unlikely resistance from Khader El-Yateem, a Palestinian Lutheran Minister embedded in Southern Brooklyn’s Arab Christian community endorsed by the New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, amidst an epic revival post-Bernie Sanders. In the process, Brannan first crossed paths with Zohran Mamdani, then El-Yateem’s paid canvass manager.
Brannan’s institutional ties, inside and outside of the district, proved to be his strongest asset. He had co-founded the neighborhood’s Democratic club, becoming the de-facto leader of a committed cadre of locals hoping to make their purple district a little bluer. Aided by his years as a Council staffer, Brannan possessed the political contacts needed to lure organized labor to his side, a coup in the union-dense neighborhoods of Southern Brooklyn. The Working Families Party, more labor-oriented and less ideological than their current iteration, supported the frontrunner. Like Adrienne Adams, Brannan was one of several Council hopefuls in 2017 endorsed by the Police Benevolent Association. And, while Brannan was criticized for his procurement of campaign contributions tied to real estate developers, the contrast fell on deaf ears to the many voters who regarded the graduate of Xaverian High School as one of their own.
In the end, Brannan prevailed in the Democratic Primary by only 738 votes, while the much-anticipated November General Election produced a remarkably similar margin: 794 votes.
A former staffer under Bill de Blasio at the Department of Education, Brannan publicly distanced himself from the Mayor, radioactive in white ethnic neighborhoods by the end of his first term (Malliotakis was crushed citywide, but annihilated de Blasio on Staten Island). Nonetheless, the Mayor’s aides helped the Democratic nominee behind-the-scenes and on the ground. Ultimately, Justin Brannan outran Bill de Blasio by more than fifteen-percent.
To some, Brannan was a “progressive”; to others, he was a “moderate.”
Now, he was a City Council Member.
Like his future counterpart in the Comptroller’s race, Brannan would run for Speaker. The end result was the same, but the tale is filled with drama. Having endorsed an ambitious slate of freshman Democrats, Brannan was considered a leading contender to hold the gavel for months. However, Brannan was nearly ambushed during his November re-election, just as the Speaker’s race was coming into focus. Democratic nominee Eric Adams barely campaigned in the General Election; already weak with White Ethnic voters, Adams’ hemorrhaged support in Chinese enclaves across Southern Brooklyn, some of which were in Brannan’s district. While the Mayor-elect lost by ten points, Brannan clawed his way to a two point victory; staunching the bleeding, an early foreshadowing of impending political realignment, in Bath Beach and Bensonhurst, while blue Bay Ridge cemented his re-election.
Once again, Justin Brannan had outrun the top-of-the-ticket.
While the Bay Ridge Democrat prevailed, his Speakership bid, put on ice by Eric Adams, ultimately fell short; prompting Brannan to throw his support (and that of his many endorsers) behind compromise candidate Adrienne Adams, who prevailed over the Mayor’s hand pick, Francisco Moya. For his loyalty, Brannan was rewarded with chairing the plum Finance Committee.
The Southern Brooklyn knife fights did not end there, as the districts of both Brannan and neighboring Council Member Ari Kagan were fused together during the 2023 redistricting period, so as to create a new “Asian Opportunity” Council District. Rather than face certain defeat in a Democratic Primary against Brannan (the entirety of Bay Ridge remaining in the district), Kagan, once a close ally of Hakeem Jeffries, defected to the Republican Party. Yet, with no top-of-the-ticket to drag him down, Brannan easily dispatched Kagan by seventeen points. In the process, he refused to take the Working Families Party ballot line, but managed to energize liberal, reform Democrats (in turn, attracting considerable attention from the press) throughout Brooklyn, who viewed Brannan as their ally in an ongoing proxy war against Kings County Democratic Chair, Rodneyse Bichotte.
Lay the respective résumés of Mark Levine and Justin Brannan side-by-side, and one might have trouble discerning the “moderate” from the “progressive,” or the liberal from the leftist.
Both voted against a proposed $1B cut to the NYPD budget during the protest summer of 2020. Brannan supported Eric Adams for Mayor; Levine backed his fellow West Sider, Scott Stringer, before withdrawing his endorsement after sexual harassment allegations emerged. As Mayor Adams became embroiled in legal trouble, Brannan called for his resignation; Levine did not. Both supported the City of Yes, but to varying degrees; Brannan secured a “Special District” carveout for Bay Ridge, leading Abundance-aligned Open New York to endorse Levine. Once a “classic, outer borough skeptic,” Brannan has come to support Congestion Pricing; while Levine had backed the program from the get-go. Both were members of the “big tent” iteration of the Council’s Progressive Caucus. Brannan was one of fifteen members who left the group in 2023 rather than agree to the body’s new statement of principles, which included a clause to “do everything we can to reduce the size and scope of the NYPD and the Department of Correction”; Levine was already Borough President, but likely would have done the same.
In the behind-the-scenes struggle for the three coveted downstate casino licenses — up for grabs this year — each holds significant sway. As Borough President, Levine opposed the needed rezoning changes for Wynn Resorts and Related Companies to build a casino and hotel in Hudson Yards; losing the sought-after endorsement of the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council as a result. Prior to HTC’s backing, Brannan had been a “solid no” on a separate bid for a casino in Coney Island (a $3 Billion effort by Thor Equities dubbed The Coney), before recently telling POLITICO New York that he wants to “let the process play out.” Due to the City Council practice known as “member deference,” when the body votes on a zoning amendment to “help clear the way for ‘The Coney’ to become a reality… the [fate of the] measure is essentially in Brannan’s hands.” Now, an Independent Expenditure aiding his Comptroller campaign is managed by a lobbyist working for “The Coney.”
Nonetheless, the Ideological Left has flocked to Brannan, exemplified by The Working Families Party, who endorsed him last fall, despite the Bay Ridge Democrat eschewing their support during his 2023 re-election. The Chair of the Finance Committee secured the sought-after Why Shit Not Working video collaboration with his Gen-Z colleague, Chi Ossé. Even Zohran Mamdani released a video yesterday, in an attempt to recruit small dollar donors to Brannan’s campaign in advance of the final filing deadline. Indeed, many of the underdog’s staunchest (elected) supporters are aligned with NYC-DSA and/or the City Council Progressive Caucus. Why? Relationships.
Although the fault lines of Israel—Palestine certainly play a role.
Mark Levine does not stray from the Pro-Israel consensus of the Democratic Party establishment. Whereas Justin Brannan — whose Southern Brooklyn district includes the largest Palestinian population in the city, in addition to thousands of Jews, both secular and religious — is regarded as to the left of the Manhattan Borough President on this issue, which has risen in salience across progressive circles since the onset of the War in Gaza. Brannan’s even-keeled approach, willingness to support some of the most Palestine-sympathetic elected officials in New York City, and the subsequent backlash from Pro-Israel forces was detailed by Jewish Insider. Solidarity PAC — the local arm of the AIPAC — even donated $1,000 to Brannan’s Comptroller campaign, although the Pro-Israel outfit still ranked Levine #1.
If you’re asking what the New York City Comptroller has to do with foreign policy in the Middle East, the answer is very little. Nonetheless, in a campaign with few discernible fault lines, Israel–Palestine has shaped the respective institutional and electoral coalitions of both Levine and Brannan.
Public polling in the Comptroller’s race has been sparse, but enough to paint the picture: with less than two weeks remaining, Mark Levine is the clear favorite to win the Primary.
The Manhattan Borough President has the inside-track to win two-thirds (or more) of the Democratic vote in New York’s bluest county. Off the bat, overcoming a drubbing in high-turnout Manhattan is extremely difficult for any candidates to overcome, absent a comparable advantage with the multi-racial working-class of the outer boroughs. Does Justin Brannan have that?
I’m skeptical. Without a doubt, the choice of the progressive left will coalesce the “Commie Corridor,” which spans the East River waterfront from Greenpoint to Sunset Park. He’ll win Park Slope (as I predicted on the Perez Notes podcast) and other left-leaning neighborhoods adjacent to Prospect Park. The African American and Afro Caribbean communities to the Southeast are anyone’s best guess, although county leader Rodneyse Bichotte will be working against her Bay Ridge rival; as will the vaunted, but underrated Chinese–Italian machine led by Susan Zhuang and Bill Colton. Mark Levine, additionally, should be favored to coalesce Hasidic and Sephardic Jews in Borough Park, Midwood, and South Williamsburg. Withstanding, Justin Brannan should win Brooklyn comfortably — the rare politician who can win both Coney Island and Carroll Gardens — but will his margin-of-victory offset the impending carnage in Manhattan?
The Bronx has turned into another proxy war between Rep. Adriano Espaillat (backing Levine) and State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie (supporting Brannan). Unless the vibes dramatically shift, or AOC weighs in at the last minute, Levine should receive a majority of the vote in New York’s lowest income county; comparable to the margins he’ll earn across the Harlem River in the state’s highest. Riverdale (historically Jewish, upper middle-class), University Heights (heavily-Dominican, working-poor), and Throggs Neck (Puerto Rican and White Ethnic, middle-class) should all slide into Levine’s column on Election Night. For the vote to be closer than I anticipate, Brannan will need to significantly outpace Levine in the borough’s northeastern Black neighborhoods — Wakefield, Williamsbridge, Edenwald & Co-op City.
Queens County is historically the bellwether for citywide elections. Neither candidate, as of now, can lay claim to the borough’s vast geography. However, given Brannan’s projected deficit in Manhattan and the Bronx, the Bay Ridge-native will need to make up ground across the World’s Borough. Brannan will have to lean into his progressive bona fides in the gentrifying west, with the hopes of riding Zohran Mamdani’s coattails, while playing to his “moderate” end-of-the-subway-line ethos in the homeowner-heavy east.
Staten Island, while a fascinating case study into the dwindling Italian and Irish Democratic electorate, is unlikely to account for more than three-percent of the Primary vote.
This is Mark Levine’s race to lose.
One political career will not only continue, but reside a stone’s throw away from City Hall; the other, most likely, will come to an unceremonious end. Being a lobbyist isn’t so bad though, just ask Corey Johnson.
But well-beyond the individuals themselves, the stakes are even higher.
Were Mark Levine to lose — a shocking collapse at this late juncture — said defeat would mark a political sea change from Manhattan to Brooklyn.
We’ve seen it before. Two decades ago, a comparable migration of Black political power shifted from Harlem to Central Brooklyn. Now, could the epicenter of the (white) Democratic Primary electorate transition from the liberal Upper West Side to progressive Park Slope?
On the contrary…
The progressive left, headlined by the Working Families Party, has staked considerable credibility on the outcome of the Comptroller Primary. However, they are somewhat out-on-a-limb.
There is no army of foot soldiers coming from NYC-DSA. No endorsement from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to save the day. No once-in-a-generation candidate to rally around. When you strip everything down, what is left?
An old-school test of power.
While the Mayoral race has become the de-facto referendum on the professional left, the Comptroller Primary may be the most accurate gauge of their institutional influence. A down-ballot drubbing, four years removed from a come-from-behind victory, would spur calls for a reckoning.
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Great reason to root against Brannan: if he loses we'll get a new Caninus album