As always, this is a well written and argued take. I have thought for a while that Espaillat was vulnerable because of Black voters, and was happy to see Chevalier take him out. Thanks for writing this thorough analysis!
The establishment response is panic dressed as analysis. They cannot say the obvious because it indicts them. Regular Democrats spent decades assuming Black voters would remain institutional, loyal, older, church-tied, machine-friendly, and controllable. But younger Black renters live in a different economy, different media world, different housing crisis, and different political atmosphere. The DSA understands that better than Hakeem Jeffries and Letitia James do. That does not make socialism right. It makes the threat real. The old Democrat machine is losing the next generation because it took them for granted while radicals gave them an identity, enemy, and mission.
Great analysis! Anecdotal, but as a 25-year old black college-educated renter transplant in the East Harlem neighborhood of NY-13, this is a great change to see. I voted for Adriano Espaillat in the 2024 election, but only because he was the only viable option. It’s an outside city and I never saw him on the street until he was getting challenged. He got too comfortable until it was too late and it cost him the primary. They also tried to overplay the importance of her 4-year old tweets when everyone has seen how much the republicans have gotten away with recently. I hope this is only the beginning for the country.
That Tish can happily march with war criminals and then turn around to bloviate about this is immensely disqualifying for someone of her stature. She must be primaried out of office.
I’m sure you saw the NYTimes explanation of their changes in polling methodology… the NYTimes polling has been consistently inaccurate… is their methodology flawed?
Is your polling methodology transferable to the senatorial races in Maine? in Texas?
Can the Mamdani/DSA/YoungerVoter surge became a national tsunami?
Do the millions spent in mailings and TV change minds? or is GOTV the deciding factor?
As always, this is a well written and argued take. I have thought for a while that Espaillat was vulnerable because of Black voters, and was happy to see Chevalier take him out. Thanks for writing this thorough analysis!
Yeah, i knew something was wrong with how people were reading the data. This helps!
Wow! Another tour de force! Brilliant and beautiful.
The establishment response is panic dressed as analysis. They cannot say the obvious because it indicts them. Regular Democrats spent decades assuming Black voters would remain institutional, loyal, older, church-tied, machine-friendly, and controllable. But younger Black renters live in a different economy, different media world, different housing crisis, and different political atmosphere. The DSA understands that better than Hakeem Jeffries and Letitia James do. That does not make socialism right. It makes the threat real. The old Democrat machine is losing the next generation because it took them for granted while radicals gave them an identity, enemy, and mission.
Great analysis! Anecdotal, but as a 25-year old black college-educated renter transplant in the East Harlem neighborhood of NY-13, this is a great change to see. I voted for Adriano Espaillat in the 2024 election, but only because he was the only viable option. It’s an outside city and I never saw him on the street until he was getting challenged. He got too comfortable until it was too late and it cost him the primary. They also tried to overplay the importance of her 4-year old tweets when everyone has seen how much the republicans have gotten away with recently. I hope this is only the beginning for the country.
That Tish can happily march with war criminals and then turn around to bloviate about this is immensely disqualifying for someone of her stature. She must be primaried out of office.
I’m sure you saw the NYTimes explanation of their changes in polling methodology… the NYTimes polling has been consistently inaccurate… is their methodology flawed?
Is your polling methodology transferable to the senatorial races in Maine? in Texas?
Can the Mamdani/DSA/YoungerVoter surge became a national tsunami?
Do the millions spent in mailings and TV change minds? or is GOTV the deciding factor?