What's ironic (?) is that Cuomo's amalgam of rich and poor voters resembles what was once characterized as the limousine liberal coalition, even though Cuomo's politics are a DLC style rebuke of limousine liberalism, whereas Mamdani's economically struggling middle income voters in a way fit the profile of a populism that is often coded as right-leaning... even though ZM is unapologetically pro Palestinian, eagerly embraced LBGQTIA endorsement, held the line on hiring more cops, etc. The difference in NYC is a decided majority of residents are renters and there's a strong age skew to this as well.
The key brand differentiation between Cuomo and Adams, despite both being candidates of real estate and the NYPD and the (ultra) orthodox Jewish bloc, is that with centrist Dems the former can plausibly present himself as a Trump #resister—despite the reality that his campaign stoked Islamophobic hysteria, and his infamous history as a GOP collaborator in Albany—whereas Adams is an incorrigibly corrupted asset. Given the present balance of forces and options, fluid and subject to change, the anti-Mamdanis' best shot is for Sliwa to drop out and for Adams to pick up the MAGA vote while Cuomo retains his primary electorate and peels off affluent liberal voters made to worry about Mamdani's "inexperience" and the "impracticality" of his otherwise laudable policy ideas under conditions of federal fiscal sabotage and threatened capital flight. And that's precisely where Comptroller Lander and his supporters could rescue Mamdani.
Great analysis as always, thanks for all your work. Quick question about Zohran's success in areas where Trump did better than expected in 2024. Do you think we're talking mostly about actual Trump-Mamdani voters here, in the sense of registered Democrats who voted for Trump in November 2024 and Zohran in June 2025, or Democrats who sat out last November but came back to the polls this month?
Great analysis as usual! I am curious though how much Zohran's appeal to Asian voters is his ethnicity and position on Gaza (for Muslims). In general, isn't the Asian community one of the fastest growing sectors of the NYC electorate and don't they tend to be conservative on most issues? Also, isn't the fastest growing group in NYC the Orthodox Jewish community - particularly the Haredi - which did vote for Cuomo overwhelmingly (as expected) and is very conservative on most social/political issues? How might these factors play in future elections?
The analysis is missing some things. It doesnt capture how many older black people operate in real life.
The over 50 crowd in the black community is not going to jump on upstart campaign before its proven people will show up and vote for that person. Thats why the over 50 black people were not voting for Zohran yet.
Expect Zohran to cut into the Cuomo/Adams margins with older voters in a general election.
One other thing to add is yall are missing out on the fact that the livable streets and urbanist movement helped fuel Zohrans rise with younger voters in particular those of us whove visited London, Barcelona, Amsterdam, Zurich, Tokyo and Singapore.
We were meeting with Zohran about these livability and various urbanist issues like walkability before he was running for mayor. These things inspire the youth to come out and vote as it has a direct impact on their everyday lives.
There is a developing movement called Urbanism which is helped Zohrans significantly and will keep his voters voting for him. This is also why Brad and Zohran voters were always a natural alliance even before the official cross endorsement.
When Obama ran against Hillary in the NY primaries one Harlem precinct went for Hillary by 100% to 0. I'm sure there were pundits to conclude that Obama was unpopular with African Americans. (Charlie Rangel, the local hack, just happened to be supporting Hillary.)
Same when I note that Mamdami did poorly with lower-income voters. If you're one of those voters and the local ward heeler's ensuring you get $250 a day to oversee the voting, well, that's a lot of money when the rent's so high.
What's ironic (?) is that Cuomo's amalgam of rich and poor voters resembles what was once characterized as the limousine liberal coalition, even though Cuomo's politics are a DLC style rebuke of limousine liberalism, whereas Mamdani's economically struggling middle income voters in a way fit the profile of a populism that is often coded as right-leaning... even though ZM is unapologetically pro Palestinian, eagerly embraced LBGQTIA endorsement, held the line on hiring more cops, etc. The difference in NYC is a decided majority of residents are renters and there's a strong age skew to this as well.
The key brand differentiation between Cuomo and Adams, despite both being candidates of real estate and the NYPD and the (ultra) orthodox Jewish bloc, is that with centrist Dems the former can plausibly present himself as a Trump #resister—despite the reality that his campaign stoked Islamophobic hysteria, and his infamous history as a GOP collaborator in Albany—whereas Adams is an incorrigibly corrupted asset. Given the present balance of forces and options, fluid and subject to change, the anti-Mamdanis' best shot is for Sliwa to drop out and for Adams to pick up the MAGA vote while Cuomo retains his primary electorate and peels off affluent liberal voters made to worry about Mamdani's "inexperience" and the "impracticality" of his otherwise laudable policy ideas under conditions of federal fiscal sabotage and threatened capital flight. And that's precisely where Comptroller Lander and his supporters could rescue Mamdani.
Great analysis as always, thanks for all your work. Quick question about Zohran's success in areas where Trump did better than expected in 2024. Do you think we're talking mostly about actual Trump-Mamdani voters here, in the sense of registered Democrats who voted for Trump in November 2024 and Zohran in June 2025, or Democrats who sat out last November but came back to the polls this month?
Great analysis as usual! I am curious though how much Zohran's appeal to Asian voters is his ethnicity and position on Gaza (for Muslims). In general, isn't the Asian community one of the fastest growing sectors of the NYC electorate and don't they tend to be conservative on most issues? Also, isn't the fastest growing group in NYC the Orthodox Jewish community - particularly the Haredi - which did vote for Cuomo overwhelmingly (as expected) and is very conservative on most social/political issues? How might these factors play in future elections?
Follow me on Bluesky @michaellangenyc.bsky.social
The analysis is missing some things. It doesnt capture how many older black people operate in real life.
The over 50 crowd in the black community is not going to jump on upstart campaign before its proven people will show up and vote for that person. Thats why the over 50 black people were not voting for Zohran yet.
Expect Zohran to cut into the Cuomo/Adams margins with older voters in a general election.
One other thing to add is yall are missing out on the fact that the livable streets and urbanist movement helped fuel Zohrans rise with younger voters in particular those of us whove visited London, Barcelona, Amsterdam, Zurich, Tokyo and Singapore.
We were meeting with Zohran about these livability and various urbanist issues like walkability before he was running for mayor. These things inspire the youth to come out and vote as it has a direct impact on their everyday lives.
There is a developing movement called Urbanism which is helped Zohrans significantly and will keep his voters voting for him. This is also why Brad and Zohran voters were always a natural alliance even before the official cross endorsement.
Why do you think Cuomo was stronger among < 50k voters?
They tend to be older probably
you all believing it works is truly sad
Nice https://open.substack.com/pub/woochi143/p/sweet-tea-and-truths-the-years-the?r=5xgb18&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
When Obama ran against Hillary in the NY primaries one Harlem precinct went for Hillary by 100% to 0. I'm sure there were pundits to conclude that Obama was unpopular with African Americans. (Charlie Rangel, the local hack, just happened to be supporting Hillary.)
Same when I note that Mamdami did poorly with lower-income voters. If you're one of those voters and the local ward heeler's ensuring you get $250 a day to oversee the voting, well, that's a lot of money when the rent's so high.
Ouch. Mamdani