This is what a civil war inside a party looks like before the shooting starts—slow erosion, then sudden collapse. The old Manhattan machine built its power on favors, backroom deals, and low turnout. That world is gone. Now they’re facing organized, motivated voters who don’t need permission and don’t play by the old rules. They still control the Speaker’s chair, still lean on the judiciary—but those are rear-guard positions, not future power. Once the base flips, everything flips. And when it does, the same insiders who once dictated outcomes will be reduced to spectators. The question isn’t if. It’s how fast the collapse comes.
I completely agree. I live in the “Commie Corridor” and the current crop of progressive candidates started on the ground working in political groups that aren’t part of the party machine and started participating on the community board level. Some of them are even from the neighborhood or lived for a while, and some of these “nativists” think that they own the neighborhoods they’re originally from. These people didn’t steal power overnight.. they built their base disconnected from the establishment that already preferred to keep to their own and “coronate” candidates. As a lifelong New Yorker, I’m tired of this b.s.
Political clubs and block associations are gone, The Jefferson Club in Canarsie had a captain on every block, weekly club meetings well attended and “retail politics” prevailed.
Now living in CD 12, a cavalry charge, with Micah Lasher’s 5 M in Bloomberg “independent expenditure” cash I receive a flyer a day, mostly trashing opponents, will it help or piss off potential voters? My political club is a trompe d’oil, a facade …
Will the NYT endorse? Probably the most influential voice.
Politics has strange bedfellows and visa versa
I believe Randi Weingarten lives in the district, I’ll have to ask for her views.
You were spot on about the West Bronx being his base. That is where he spends his time while he’s MIA in Morningside lol. I used to live there and it was common to see him handing out flyers outside of 238th street.
I’ve also noticed his failure to expand his squad throughout the years. His strength is with his Dominican base, but it still seems big enough to make a challenge difficult. And he seems to be flexible enough to change strategy when needed, as he did when he endorsed Mamdani in the general.
I think it will take someone who has strong ties and visibility to his own base to unseat him.
"Mamdani’s dominance across these neighborhoods is no surprise, for NY-13 possesses the dual ingredients of left-leaning electoral success — renters (99th percentile) and millennials (94th percentile) — both fundamental to the sociological and political identity of each neighborhood. In fact, no Congressional District in the United States has a higher percentage of renters (89%) than NY-13."
Is there an easy way to look up relative renter, etc. percentiles for Congressional districts? I can find the base rates at https://www.census.gov/mycd/ but it doesn't give percentiles.
its funny i hadn't heard your name for a while thank god, dropped off the message boards, and here you are with your nonsense on this substack. bless your heart
This is what a civil war inside a party looks like before the shooting starts—slow erosion, then sudden collapse. The old Manhattan machine built its power on favors, backroom deals, and low turnout. That world is gone. Now they’re facing organized, motivated voters who don’t need permission and don’t play by the old rules. They still control the Speaker’s chair, still lean on the judiciary—but those are rear-guard positions, not future power. Once the base flips, everything flips. And when it does, the same insiders who once dictated outcomes will be reduced to spectators. The question isn’t if. It’s how fast the collapse comes.
I completely agree. I live in the “Commie Corridor” and the current crop of progressive candidates started on the ground working in political groups that aren’t part of the party machine and started participating on the community board level. Some of them are even from the neighborhood or lived for a while, and some of these “nativists” think that they own the neighborhoods they’re originally from. These people didn’t steal power overnight.. they built their base disconnected from the establishment that already preferred to keep to their own and “coronate” candidates. As a lifelong New Yorker, I’m tired of this b.s.
As usual, tuned to the pulse of elections.
Political clubs and block associations are gone, The Jefferson Club in Canarsie had a captain on every block, weekly club meetings well attended and “retail politics” prevailed.
Now living in CD 12, a cavalry charge, with Micah Lasher’s 5 M in Bloomberg “independent expenditure” cash I receive a flyer a day, mostly trashing opponents, will it help or piss off potential voters? My political club is a trompe d’oil, a facade …
Will the NYT endorse? Probably the most influential voice.
Politics has strange bedfellows and visa versa
I believe Randi Weingarten lives in the district, I’ll have to ask for her views.
Amazing prose here, Michael.
You were spot on about the West Bronx being his base. That is where he spends his time while he’s MIA in Morningside lol. I used to live there and it was common to see him handing out flyers outside of 238th street.
I’ve also noticed his failure to expand his squad throughout the years. His strength is with his Dominican base, but it still seems big enough to make a challenge difficult. And he seems to be flexible enough to change strategy when needed, as he did when he endorsed Mamdani in the general.
I think it will take someone who has strong ties and visibility to his own base to unseat him.
"Mamdani’s dominance across these neighborhoods is no surprise, for NY-13 possesses the dual ingredients of left-leaning electoral success — renters (99th percentile) and millennials (94th percentile) — both fundamental to the sociological and political identity of each neighborhood. In fact, no Congressional District in the United States has a higher percentage of renters (89%) than NY-13."
Is there an easy way to look up relative renter, etc. percentiles for Congressional districts? I can find the base rates at https://www.census.gov/mycd/ but it doesn't give percentiles.
Wow, very good analysis but you have 3 other candidates and two who were born in the district.
http://theoforcongress.substack.com
And stop referring to Darializa as a Socialist. She is not, she is a Mélenchonist.
its funny i hadn't heard your name for a while thank god, dropped off the message boards, and here you are with your nonsense on this substack. bless your heart