The (Almost) October (Non) Surprise
Eric Adams quits the race: why Zohran Mamdani should not be concerned.
On Sunday afternoon, Mayor Eric Adams announced he would not seek re-election.
Almost one year to the day from his indictment, Adams — New York City’s second Black mayor — chose to end his campaign rather than face the will of the voters, who would have assuredly levied a historic rejection for an incumbent. After eschewing the Democratic Primary following an (alleged) quid pro quo with the Trump administration (so the aforementioned charges would not be prosecuted), Adams received what seemed to be a lifeline when Zohran Mamdani trounced Andrew Cuomo in June. However, Adams, underwater with all demographic groups and political parties, failed to mount a credible Independent bid, mortally wounded by the clouds of corruption and a widely-reported kinship with the Republican President. Announcing his departure from the race, Adams blamed everyone — his “dishonest” opponents, the “unfair” media, even the campaign finance board (who denied the incumbent matching funds) — for his shortcomings, rather than himself. No accountability, only accusations: the perfect encapsulation of his one (and only) term. For years, there were a plethora of warning signs with respect to Adams’ ethics, yet those red flags did not stop the Democratic establishment from not only rallying behind Adams, but praising him as a national model for the Party (that he would later reject). When Adams ran for mayor, he did so as a tough talker from the outer boroughs who made liberals squeamish, the resounding first choice of blue-collar New York. However, the crises of his mayoralty not only re-oriented the city’s politics around his enemies, leading to the ascendance of Zohran Mamdani, but damaged his allies in the Black political establishment, perhaps irrevocably. As I wrote in The Metropolitan Review, Adams’ victory was the last gasp of old New York’s political power — labor unions, political machines, the financial elite — although few recognized it at the time. Now, the self-proclaimed “Biden of Brooklyn,” who frequently compared himself to the honest and gentle David Dinkins, will be relegated to the dustbin of history alongside Jimmy Walker, the infamous nightlife mayor, and William O’Dwyer, an ex-cop who could never abandon his unscrupulous past. Eric Adams embodies the worst of both.
The incumbent mayor, whose name will nonetheless remain on the ballot, was polling between six and twelve percent prior to dropping out — leaving relatively little support to shift to other candidates. Andrew Cuomo, also running as an Independent, is the de-facto beneficiary of Adams’ departure, inheriting more than half of his supporters according to recent polling: an amalgamation of older Black voters, moderate Democrats, Orthodox Jews, and white ethnic Republicans. Without Adams, another favorite of the billionaire class, the deck is cleared for the coffers of Cuomo-aligned Super PACs, thus far barren, to be filled with tens of millions of dollars in a last ditch effort to stop the democratic socialist Mamdani, thus far on pace to coast to victory. In September polls (CBS News, Marist, Quinnipiac) which modeled a three-way race, a consistent hierarchy emerged: Zohran Mamdani (46-47%), Andrew Cuomo (30%), and Curtis Sliwa (16-17%). Quickly, one can discern that Adams’ withdrawal alone is not enough to propel Cuomo to within striking distance of the Democratic nominee.
Hence, Cuomo’s masterplan — a plot stretching all the way to the President — is contingent upon sidelining the Republican nominee, on course to “waste” hundreds of thousands of theoretically anti-Mamdani votes.
However, while Donald Trump has run roughshod over Congress, the courts, universities, and law enforcement — he has never coerced Curtis Sliwa.
Sliwa, a red beret-wearing ex-vigilante, is a fascinating character — to say the least. The founder of the Guardian Angels and staple of local talk radio for decades, Sliwa’s exploits include fostering six cats (formerly seventeen) and surviving an assassination attempt linked to the Gambino crime family. Four years ago, he received twenty-eight percent of the vote as the Republican nominee during one of the least contested General Elections in recent memory. However, Sliwa is far from a dyed-in-the-wool MAGA loyalist; six years ago, he called the President a “screwball and a crackpot,” and only registered to vote as a Republican after Trump left office. A longstanding supporter of gay marriage, who (in his telling) has refused several million dollar bribes from oligarchs to leave the race, Sliwa’s colorful nature (“slapping fannies and killing grannies”) has turned him into somewhat of a cult hero. Thus far, Sliwa has run a credible campaign, opening offices in every borough, boasting more endorsements than Cuomo, while maintaining a busy schedule of events. Given Sliwa has (literally) fought off killer mob bosses, the conventional wisdom is that the Republican nominee will remain in the race — Trump, Cuomo, and the billionaire class be damned.
Eric Adams, losing leverage by the day, can be bought off for the right price; Curtis Sliwa, a political gadfly who enjoys running for Mayor, lacks the same incentive.
In the coming weeks, there will be a coordinated push to cast the Sliwa as a hopeless spoiler, an effort designed to push Republicans and moderate Independents into a shotgun-marriage with Andrew Cuomo. Donald Trump, in an appearance on Fox and Friends, has already previewed the manner in which Sliwa will be dismissed by the anti-Mamdani political class: “I’m a Republican, but Curtis is not exactly prime time… he wants cats to be in Gracie Mansion, we don’t need thousands of cats.” Members of Sliwa’s own party are already using his lack of viability to peel away voters to Cuomo, a moderate backed by the business elite; in New York City, Democrats outnumber Republicans 8-to-1. Cuomo, whose Polymarket odds are fifteen percent, is relying on Sliwa’s support gradually atrophying, aided by the media framing the contest as a one-versus-one. Theoretically, were Sliwa’s vote share to steadily decrease (to approximately ten-percent), while the polarizing Mamdani (bruised by an avalanche of negative advertisements) stalls out at his forty-five percent polling average, Cuomo, against all odds, would have a chance. Fortunately, we do not deal in hypotheticals.
Despite receiving a lifeline yesterday, Andrew Cuomo remains in a very difficult position. Donald Trump’s fingerprints are all over the Mayoral race, with the President from Jamaica Estates making it known that his fellow Queens-native, Cuomo, would be his preferred choice to lead the five boroughs. Given that Trump’s intervention is so blatant, top Democrats, such as Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, may not have a choice to support Zohran Mamdani. And, while Cuomo can count on the support of many moderates and centrists, avowedly zionist Jews, the ultra-wealthy, Italian and Greek ancestral Democrats, coupled with various Hasidim and Orthodox sects — the former Governor’s viability is yoked to his consistently solid support among older Black and Hispanic Democrats; constituencies with whom Mamdani has steadily made progress, and where the specter of the unpopular President threatens to erode Cuomo’s decades of goodwill. Indeed, the hint of a deal with Donald Trump will end the career of any Democrat in New York City — just ask Eric Adams.
Donald Trump, for all his electoral gains in New York City, earned only thirty percent of the vote last November. Many of those inroads came with lower propensity Hispanic and Asian working-class voters, less likely to participate in an off-year, municipal election. Bludgeoned by higher costs-of-living and upset that their support was taken for granted by Democrats as quality of life in their neighborhoods deteriorated, said pronounced shifts to the GOP cannot be interpreted as an unequivocal rubber-stamp of all things Trump — particularly given the chaos that has emanated from Washington over the past nine months. In contrast, New York City’s Democratic electorate is fired up amidst Trump 2.0, evidenced by the near-record turnout in June’s primary. Such a backroom deal, reeking of Trump’s influence, will inevitably polarize the city’s more than three million Democrats.
The question remains: are voters more afraid of Donald Trump, the wannabe authoritarian, or Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist?
Herein lies the problem for the former Governor. For every one vote Andrew Cuomo gains from the bungalows of Breezy Point, a gated community of conservative Irish civil servants, or the single family homes of Throggs Neck, home to the Puerto Rican and white ethnic homeowner class; he loses two votes to Zohran Mamdani on the Upper West Side, historically-Jewish and steadfastly liberal, or the working-class Caribbean neighborhoods of East Flatbush and Canarsie, among the bluest blocks in the United States. Mamdani is poised to crush Cuomo in white-collar Manhattan and Brooklyn, the most vote-rich and Democrat-leaning boroughs of New York City. A bloodbath, even more pronounced than the Primary, will commence throughout the Commie Corridor. The age splits between Mamdani, 33, and Cuomo, 67, will only widen; with the former annihilating the latter among voters under-45 (close to half of the electorate last November). The alienated and disillusioned working-class masses of the Bronx and Queens have little incentive to turn out for the former Governor, an avatar of the dysfunctional status quo and loathed political establishment. Were the city’s demographics fixed in 2001, Cuomo would be the heavy favorite; in 2025, he has a snowball’s chance in hell. To pull off an improbable upset, Cuomo, not Mamdani, will need to expand the electorate. Could three months of Fox News and New York Post headlines, demonizing the democratic socialist, create a localized red wave in what promises to be a blue year? I doubt it.
In fact, many of the polls are still undercounting Mamdani’s support.
So where does this leave the Democratic nominee? I have said Zohran is Inevitable…
With thirty-six days until November 4th, Mamdani is not so much competing against his opponents, but himself. The concern for Mamdani does not lie with Eric Adams, or even Curtis Sliwa, consolidating behind Andrew Cuomo: forcing a dreaded, but nonetheless climactic, one-on-one race entering the homestretch.
No, the real danger lies in panic — anxiety arising from an unforeseen development, an onslaught of advertisements depressing morale, the fear of losing what once seemed certain — that knocks Mamdani off his game, leading to an unforced error. What separates Mamdani from his contemporaries is that he does not play the game of politics scared. Most elected officials and candidates for office live in fear of making the mistake; but Mamdani, anxious about backlash as anyone would, knows that to forsake risk means compromising creativity and authenticity. If the Mamdani of the Democratic Primary was bold and unapologetic, a brilliant insurgent; the Mamdani of the General Election is deliberate and principled, a thoughtful coalition builder. As his historic campaign comes to a close, Mamdani has the opportunity to intertwine both approaches, a crescendo that culminates in a November 4th mandate.
Andrew Cuomo cannot beat Zohran Mamdani — only he can.
As the Mayor would say, “stay focused, no distractions, and grind.”
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All my haters become my waiters when I sit down at the table of m̶i̶s̶e̶r̶a̶b̶l̶e̶ ̶f̶a̶i̶l̶u̶r̶e̶ success
Excellent analysis, the times they are a-changing, the self empowerment of younger voters is a model for the nation, not necessarily transferable, a foundation to build upon. The real estate typhoons are seeing the handwringing and I suspect abandoning Bidenesque over the hill candidate.