Juggernaut analysis as expected. The big thing I’d add as a longtime Darializa field lead is that I truly believe the race is less about many young people she can mobilize and more about how many old people she can persuade. My theory of victory for her always has been that Espaillat’s longstanding weakness with high engagement older black and older white voters in the southern half of the district—where he’s perpetually absent—can translate into a different kind of NYC-DSA coalition. The current turnout data seems to suggest that this theory will be directly put to the test.
Sample size of one, but friend who lives in Inwood (middle-aged, white) has intensely disliked Espillat for years (for anti-machine reasons) but voted for him, not because of the oppo research but because Chevalier's media appearances (Brian Lehrer/New York Editorial Board) convinced my friend that she would be worse.
Good analysis! However, I think that morally speaking you might be off the mark. You are supporting a candidate who is okay with Ukranians being blown up as well as voicing disagreement with interracial relationships. You should really get your priors checked out
Qualifications and dignity, as personified by the likes of Jared Moskowitz (D) and (formerly) Matt Gaetz (R)?
Neither qualifications nor dignity have been required for this job for a very long time (if ever.) All that has been needed is a brazenness to keep telling voters that they can't have anything necessary for their material well-being, and "explain" why that money must really be spent on Elon Musk or Israel or <<literally anything else>>.
I do hope the electorate takes its chances on the young - including its problematic members - that at least want to do good for the local community, rather than the undeserving establishment that has only enriched itself while extracting resources to wage wars abroad.
Excellent and detailed analysis, unsurprisingly. One question: What effect might the onslaught of racist and Islamophobic attacks on Darializa Avila Chevaliar have? Could it galvanize an Election Day surge of 35-49 Black millennials in favor of DAC because of the obvious anti-Black racism?
I think all these predictions are pretty accurate I hope darializa wins though the attacks on her have been so bigoted especially coming from democrats
NY13 constituent here as well. I was hopeful about Avilés Chavez too, but the rhetoric in the mailers and ads these last few weeks has been wild, and I fear it may cost her. The anti-DSA ones from the National Black Empowerment Action Fund, a name that at first glance would feel hard to argue with (but once you start looking into it and realize they’re AIPAC), have been flooding mailboxes in this district with straight-up fearmongering. We’re also seeing fewer canvassers compared to what we saw last year around this time.
I went to vote over the weekend and the corner where my polling site was had all sorts of Espaillat ads plastered everywhere. They even tore down the Conrad Blackburn ones too. The establishment is clearly nervous about this one.
Do you think the oppo dump on Darializa would have come out if Mamdani didnt endorse? Do you think if he endorsed like closer to the start of early voting, her peak would have been better timed?
The one disagreement that I have is that I think Julie Won has a bit more life in her than 6%. Maybe that difference is enough to be decisive or maybe it’s moot
Juggernaut analysis as expected. The big thing I’d add as a longtime Darializa field lead is that I truly believe the race is less about many young people she can mobilize and more about how many old people she can persuade. My theory of victory for her always has been that Espaillat’s longstanding weakness with high engagement older black and older white voters in the southern half of the district—where he’s perpetually absent—can translate into a different kind of NYC-DSA coalition. The current turnout data seems to suggest that this theory will be directly put to the test.
Sample size of one, but friend who lives in Inwood (middle-aged, white) has intensely disliked Espillat for years (for anti-machine reasons) but voted for him, not because of the oppo research but because Chevalier's media appearances (Brian Lehrer/New York Editorial Board) convinced my friend that she would be worse.
Good analysis! However, I think that morally speaking you might be off the mark. You are supporting a candidate who is okay with Ukranians being blown up as well as voicing disagreement with interracial relationships. You should really get your priors checked out
Neither of those two women have the qualifications nor dignity to deserve a seat in the House of Representatives.
Qualifications and dignity, as personified by the likes of Jared Moskowitz (D) and (formerly) Matt Gaetz (R)?
Neither qualifications nor dignity have been required for this job for a very long time (if ever.) All that has been needed is a brazenness to keep telling voters that they can't have anything necessary for their material well-being, and "explain" why that money must really be spent on Elon Musk or Israel or <<literally anything else>>.
I do hope the electorate takes its chances on the young - including its problematic members - that at least want to do good for the local community, rather than the undeserving establishment that has only enriched itself while extracting resources to wage wars abroad.
Excellent and detailed analysis, unsurprisingly. One question: What effect might the onslaught of racist and Islamophobic attacks on Darializa Avila Chevaliar have? Could it galvanize an Election Day surge of 35-49 Black millennials in favor of DAC because of the obvious anti-Black racism?
I think all these predictions are pretty accurate I hope darializa wins though the attacks on her have been so bigoted especially coming from democrats
No thoughts on NY-10?
10 is clearly a Lander landslide
I think it's not quite as clear as some people think - and I'm a massive Lander supporter. Just would have appreciated the Lange treatment for it.
NY13 constituent here as well. I was hopeful about Avilés Chavez too, but the rhetoric in the mailers and ads these last few weeks has been wild, and I fear it may cost her. The anti-DSA ones from the National Black Empowerment Action Fund, a name that at first glance would feel hard to argue with (but once you start looking into it and realize they’re AIPAC), have been flooding mailboxes in this district with straight-up fearmongering. We’re also seeing fewer canvassers compared to what we saw last year around this time.
I went to vote over the weekend and the corner where my polling site was had all sorts of Espaillat ads plastered everywhere. They even tore down the Conrad Blackburn ones too. The establishment is clearly nervous about this one.
Phenomenal. Another masterclass. No wonder you're spawning a breed of @MichaelLangeNYC Election Analyst Cubs following in your footsteps.
They're doing some fine work, but this effort shows why there's only one original. The original is the original
Do you think the oppo dump on Darializa would have come out if Mamdani didnt endorse? Do you think if he endorsed like closer to the start of early voting, her peak would have been better timed?
The oracle has spoken (now go get some rest)
The one disagreement that I have is that I think Julie Won has a bit more life in her than 6%. Maybe that difference is enough to be decisive or maybe it’s moot
Hard agree. Idk who the votes would come from, but she has a significant fiefdom in Queens
who would Won take more votes from?
Working off Michael’s map, her doing better in NYCHA developments for example (moreso Queensbridge than Ravewood) would take more from Reynoso