Juggernaut analysis as expected. The big thing I’d add as a longtime Darializa field lead is that I truly believe the race is less about many young people she can mobilize and more about how many old people she can persuade. My theory of victory for her always has been that Espaillat’s longstanding weakness with high engagement older black and older white voters in the southern half of the district—where he’s perpetually absent—can translate into a different kind of NYC-DSA coalition. The current turnout data seems to suggest that this theory will be directly put to the test.
Sample size of one, but friend who lives in Inwood (middle-aged, white) has intensely disliked Espillat for years (for anti-machine reasons) but voted for him, not because of the oppo research but because Chevalier's media appearances (Brian Lehrer/New York Editorial Board) convinced my friend that she would be worse.
Commenting from the future but this was another example of Espaillat’s limits. It reminds me of the 31st State Senate race where Robert Jackson managed to win despite Espaillat’s support of his opponent Vazquez. Espaillat was never able to gain much traction and I think he just never expanded much beyond his Dominican base.
I think all these predictions are pretty accurate I hope darializa wins though the attacks on her have been so bigoted especially coming from democrats
I'm impressed by your accuracy for some spots I wouldn't have guessed in NY-7. I'm also curious to know how you put together these maps and their applications, they really look quite nice.
I am not convinced Espaillat is safe. The Harlem machine may not turn out in full force for him, and the college-educated liberals, older progressives, and anti-establishment renters in Morningside Heights, Hamilton Heights, South Harlem, Hudson Heights, and Inwood could still carry Chevalier through. That is the nightmare scenario for regular Democrats: the DSA proves it can move beyond Brooklyn hipster precincts and start cracking legacy minority-machine districts. If that happens, WFP-style progressivism becomes yesterday’s compromise, and the real fight becomes Regular Democrat versus Democrat-Socialist. NY-13 is not a local race. It is the warning flare.
NY13 constituent here as well. I was hopeful about Avilés Chavez too, but the rhetoric in the mailers and ads these last few weeks has been wild, and I fear it may cost her. The anti-DSA ones from the National Black Empowerment Action Fund, a name that at first glance would feel hard to argue with (but once you start looking into it and realize they’re AIPAC), have been flooding mailboxes in this district with straight-up fearmongering. We’re also seeing fewer canvassers compared to what we saw last year around this time.
I went to vote over the weekend and the corner where my polling site was had all sorts of Espaillat ads plastered everywhere. They even tore down the Conrad Blackburn ones too. The establishment is clearly nervous about this one.
Do you think the oppo dump on Darializa would have come out if Mamdani didnt endorse? Do you think if he endorsed like closer to the start of early voting, her peak would have been better timed?
Qualifications and dignity, as personified by the likes of Jared Moskowitz (D) and (formerly) Matt Gaetz (R)?
Neither qualifications nor dignity have been required for this job for a very long time (if ever.) All that has been needed is a brazenness to keep telling voters that they can't have anything necessary for their material well-being, and "explain" why that money must really be spent on Elon Musk or Israel or <<literally anything else>>.
I do hope the electorate takes its chances on the young - including its problematic members - that at least want to do good for the local community, rather than the undeserving establishment that has only enriched itself while extracting resources to wage wars abroad.
I increasingly agree that we (we meaning everyone, but also we meaning those of us who talk about things like how good a candidate somebody makes) need to dramatically widen the filter on how people who are seeking office can be seen to emote and express themselves in public.
For a lot of reasons. First, the same old class-and-race-imbued litmus tests and gendered double standards. But critically now also new ones like the fact that many of us who have been most vocal, invested, and involved in public life over the last 30 years, including during years of adolescence and young adulthood, have been doing all of that in public, on social media platforms that enormously influence behavior in ways folks are just now beginning to gain awareness of, and which have a permanence that has steadily become less and less avoidable.
In particular I think we need to grant people some leeway about their first reactions to things. First, because we might not actually understand them, as very often seems to be the case. But even if we do understand and are rightfully critical, there's a way we can let folks be accountable for idiotic, incomplete, or insufficiently empathetic thoughts without having to pretend they're unthinkable by decent people: we can let them explain what's really behind them. Most people, being decent, will have a decent explanation. The key requirement, I think, is that the listener must presume their own willingness to extend some charitability -- a little grace.
A little grace in NY-13 lets us see that the real contest here is between an unaccountable machine and a truly democracy-oriented, humanity-aligned movement to make the world fundamentally a better place for all of us who are blessed/cursed to find ourselves here. It seems obvious to me that Avila Chevalier has lived online, insufficiently guarded only in hindsight, trying to find her way decently through an indecent world. Hopefully voters in NY-13 will see that.
Dignity is a great word, and an even better quality. I’m not sure that Espaillat has any, but perhaps I’m wrong — I would be eager to understand from a voice like yours how he is a dignified elected official and offers dignity to his district
Good analysis! However, I think that morally speaking you might be off the mark. You are supporting a candidate who is okay with Ukranians being blown up as well as voicing disagreement with interracial relationships. You should really get your priors checked out
I have been voting in NY-13 and have voted for Espaillat at least 4 times. The issue for Espaillat is that people in the southern part of the district have wanted to replace him for a while because he hasn't done anything notable. To me it's more about Espaillat's weakness as a governing entity than Darializa's strength. Espaillat doesn't have any legislation with his name on it that he pushed. People below Inwood might feel strongly about AIPAC aligned PACs spending 7 million dollars for him to win. She's not perfect but people may see it as their chance to get rid of Espaillat.
Juggernaut analysis as expected. The big thing I’d add as a longtime Darializa field lead is that I truly believe the race is less about many young people she can mobilize and more about how many old people she can persuade. My theory of victory for her always has been that Espaillat’s longstanding weakness with high engagement older black and older white voters in the southern half of the district—where he’s perpetually absent—can translate into a different kind of NYC-DSA coalition. The current turnout data seems to suggest that this theory will be directly put to the test.
Sample size of one, but friend who lives in Inwood (middle-aged, white) has intensely disliked Espillat for years (for anti-machine reasons) but voted for him, not because of the oppo research but because Chevalier's media appearances (Brian Lehrer/New York Editorial Board) convinced my friend that she would be worse.
Yeah my 68 year old mother also lives in NY-13 and I convinced her to vote for Chevalier!
Commenting from the future but this was another example of Espaillat’s limits. It reminds me of the 31st State Senate race where Robert Jackson managed to win despite Espaillat’s support of his opponent Vazquez. Espaillat was never able to gain much traction and I think he just never expanded much beyond his Dominican base.
I think all these predictions are pretty accurate I hope darializa wins though the attacks on her have been so bigoted especially coming from democrats
Phenomenal. Another masterclass. No wonder you're spawning a breed of @MichaelLangeNYC Election Analyst Cubs following in your footsteps.
They're doing some fine work, but this effort shows why there's only one original. The original is the original
I'm impressed by your accuracy for some spots I wouldn't have guessed in NY-7. I'm also curious to know how you put together these maps and their applications, they really look quite nice.
I am not convinced Espaillat is safe. The Harlem machine may not turn out in full force for him, and the college-educated liberals, older progressives, and anti-establishment renters in Morningside Heights, Hamilton Heights, South Harlem, Hudson Heights, and Inwood could still carry Chevalier through. That is the nightmare scenario for regular Democrats: the DSA proves it can move beyond Brooklyn hipster precincts and start cracking legacy minority-machine districts. If that happens, WFP-style progressivism becomes yesterday’s compromise, and the real fight becomes Regular Democrat versus Democrat-Socialist. NY-13 is not a local race. It is the warning flare.
NY13 constituent here as well. I was hopeful about Avilés Chavez too, but the rhetoric in the mailers and ads these last few weeks has been wild, and I fear it may cost her. The anti-DSA ones from the National Black Empowerment Action Fund, a name that at first glance would feel hard to argue with (but once you start looking into it and realize they’re AIPAC), have been flooding mailboxes in this district with straight-up fearmongering. We’re also seeing fewer canvassers compared to what we saw last year around this time.
I went to vote over the weekend and the corner where my polling site was had all sorts of Espaillat ads plastered everywhere. They even tore down the Conrad Blackburn ones too. The establishment is clearly nervous about this one.
Do you think the oppo dump on Darializa would have come out if Mamdani didnt endorse? Do you think if he endorsed like closer to the start of early voting, her peak would have been better timed?
Neither of those two women have the qualifications nor dignity to deserve a seat in the House of Representatives.
Qualifications and dignity, as personified by the likes of Jared Moskowitz (D) and (formerly) Matt Gaetz (R)?
Neither qualifications nor dignity have been required for this job for a very long time (if ever.) All that has been needed is a brazenness to keep telling voters that they can't have anything necessary for their material well-being, and "explain" why that money must really be spent on Elon Musk or Israel or <<literally anything else>>.
I do hope the electorate takes its chances on the young - including its problematic members - that at least want to do good for the local community, rather than the undeserving establishment that has only enriched itself while extracting resources to wage wars abroad.
I increasingly agree that we (we meaning everyone, but also we meaning those of us who talk about things like how good a candidate somebody makes) need to dramatically widen the filter on how people who are seeking office can be seen to emote and express themselves in public.
For a lot of reasons. First, the same old class-and-race-imbued litmus tests and gendered double standards. But critically now also new ones like the fact that many of us who have been most vocal, invested, and involved in public life over the last 30 years, including during years of adolescence and young adulthood, have been doing all of that in public, on social media platforms that enormously influence behavior in ways folks are just now beginning to gain awareness of, and which have a permanence that has steadily become less and less avoidable.
In particular I think we need to grant people some leeway about their first reactions to things. First, because we might not actually understand them, as very often seems to be the case. But even if we do understand and are rightfully critical, there's a way we can let folks be accountable for idiotic, incomplete, or insufficiently empathetic thoughts without having to pretend they're unthinkable by decent people: we can let them explain what's really behind them. Most people, being decent, will have a decent explanation. The key requirement, I think, is that the listener must presume their own willingness to extend some charitability -- a little grace.
A little grace in NY-13 lets us see that the real contest here is between an unaccountable machine and a truly democracy-oriented, humanity-aligned movement to make the world fundamentally a better place for all of us who are blessed/cursed to find ourselves here. It seems obvious to me that Avila Chevalier has lived online, insufficiently guarded only in hindsight, trying to find her way decently through an indecent world. Hopefully voters in NY-13 will see that.
Dignity is a great word, and an even better quality. I’m not sure that Espaillat has any, but perhaps I’m wrong — I would be eager to understand from a voice like yours how he is a dignified elected official and offers dignity to his district
I’m in CD12, every day at least two mailers, Lasher & Boras, my neighbors, no enthusiasm, anti AI, pro Boras.
Do the betting sites agree with you?
So many transplants
Good analysis! However, I think that morally speaking you might be off the mark. You are supporting a candidate who is okay with Ukranians being blown up as well as voicing disagreement with interracial relationships. You should really get your priors checked out
2/3 is pretty darn good. Was hard to predict darializa- but wow. Interested in your post mortem.
Congratulations… you are the prognosticator par excellence… How much does Kalshi owe you? 🙄
You voted for Chevalier who is a militant anarchist who wants to abolish prisons and all deportations? Did you read the NYT Editorial Board interview?
I have been voting in NY-13 and have voted for Espaillat at least 4 times. The issue for Espaillat is that people in the southern part of the district have wanted to replace him for a while because he hasn't done anything notable. To me it's more about Espaillat's weakness as a governing entity than Darializa's strength. Espaillat doesn't have any legislation with his name on it that he pushed. People below Inwood might feel strongly about AIPAC aligned PACs spending 7 million dollars for him to win. She's not perfect but people may see it as their chance to get rid of Espaillat.
great mix of sober minded analysis and full tankie apologia!