Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani will win the General Election for New York City Mayor on Tuesday, November 4th — yet the question remains: by what margin?
Mamdani, amidst a bitter three-way campaign, faces both former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running on an Independent ballot line, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. While consistently leading by double digits, Mamdani’s support, gauged repeatedly by surveys, has remained stuck in the mid-40’s (not that the polls are accurate), allowing critics to charge that the democratic socialist has a hard ceiling. Thus, Mamdani not only needs to win, but cross the 50% threshold along the way, earning a symbolic majority of the vote, tantamount to a mandate for his ambitious agenda.
Hence, I have sorted all of New York City’s 365 neighborhoods into eleven categories:
The Commie Corridor Sr: The young, leftist base that has reshaped New York City Politics over the past decade
The Commie Corridor Jr: The next era of socialist electoral expansion
Open Doors: Working-class South Asian and Muslim communities where Mamdani opened doors for The Left
The Capitalist Corridor: The wealthiest blocks of Manhattan
No Kings Marchers: Progressive middle-aged and older voters in Brownstone neighborhoods that broke overwhelmingly for Lander and Mamdani
MSNBC Viewers: Liberals who split their votes between Mamdani, Cuomo, and Lander in the Primary
The Black Belt: The most staunchly Democratic neighborhoods in America
The Anti-Commie Corridor: Heavily Republican communities with large ancestral Eastern European populations
The Forgotten People: Lower-income Black and Hispanic precincts where the Democratic Party is losing support
Swing States: Neighborhoods where the margin was close between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani in the Democratic Primary AND Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the Presidential Election
Archie Bunker’s Descendants: The dwindling MAGA white ethnics that once anchored New York City’s electorate
Here is Mamdani’s path to a Mandate.
THE COALITION OF THE IN-BETWEEN
The movement that carried Zohran Mamdani to victory in the Democratic Primary
The Commie Corridor Sr.
The young, leftist base that has reshaped New York City Politics over the past decade
Astoria, Long Island City, Greenpoint, Williamsburg, Fort Greene, Bushwick, Bed-Stuy
2024 General: Harris 83%, Trump 17%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 66%, Cuomo 14%, Lander 12%
We’re back!
Since the Democratic Primary, The Commie Corridor, the phrase I coined to describe Mamdani’s left-leaning and youthful base, has taken on a life of its own: headlining a New York Times Op-Ed, featuring in a primetime CNN segment, receiving a citation in The New Yorker, and even a Wikipedia blurb.
On June 24th, this ideological cohort, stretching from Astoria to Sunset Park, powered the democratic socialist Mamdani to victory with record turnout and resounding margins. But can the new shorthand for the urban left keep up this raucous energy in November? After all, the youth are notoriously fickle, at least according to their Baby Boomer parents.
Young people, thus far, have made up a smaller percentage of the electorate than in the Democratic Primary, according to data released by the Board of Elections, leaving some to question whether the Mamdani-mania has worn off. However, there is ample evidence to suggest that Mamdani’s tent has only grown. In the past few months, Mamdani’s volunteer army, which numbered close to fifty-thousand in the Primary, has nearly doubled to ninety thousand plus. Along the G train line, there is no more popular politician in America than Zohran Mamdani.
In a bitterly contested and higher-turnout General Election, The Commie Corridor will have less influence than a closed Democratic Primary. Mamdani did an excellent job of maximizing his base, but how many more untapped votes are there left?
We’ll find out soon enough.
Electorate Estimation: 14-18%
Zohran needs to win almost 80% of the vote (75% is pretty good, too).
The Commie Corridor Jr.
The next era of progressive and socialist electoral expansion
Bay Ridge, East Village, Hamilton Heights, Harlem, Hell’s Kitchen, Kensington, LES
2024 General: Harris 79%, Trump 21%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 52%, Cuomo 28%, Lander 11%
Nonetheless, Mamdani’s dominance in June was not confined to the neighborhoods where the socialist left had already established an electoral foothold. In expanding the political map, Mamdani broadened the Left’s horizons: coalescing previously unrealized gains, creating a new electorate with a mass politics campaign, and providing a winning template for future candidates of his mold.
For youth and leftism is not confined to the shores of Long Island City and Greenpoint.
Throughout the hip and happening blocks of the East Village, Alphabet City and the Lower East Side, Mamdani routinely eclipsed 80% of the vote. Across bustling Hell’s Kitchen and gentrifying Hamilton Heights, the charismatic insurgent seldom lost a precinct. Ditto for Central Harlem, historically the Black political capital of the world, where Mamdani trounced Cuomo by more than twenty-percent. In Bay Ridge, a diversifying middle-class community at the end of the R train, Cuomo won five precincts — Mamdani won the other thirty five. None of these neighborhoods, where the democratic socialist won handily, have any DSA elected officials.
Perhaps that will soon change.
Electorate Estimation: 13-17%
Zohran needs to win approximately two-thirds of the vote.
“After the polls have closed and the results have come in, we’ll go home. As we close our eyes, the days of countless others will only be beginning. Doors in Jackson Heights and Parkchester and Bay Ridge will open at midnight. New Yorkers will leave their homes and commute under streetlights to work, where they’ll drive buses and mop floors and bake bread. For some, this will feel like any other night. But for so many more, it will feel like the dawn of a new day. And when the sun finally climbs above the horizon, the light will seem brighter than ever before.”
Open Doors
South Asian & Muslim communities where Mamdani opened doors for The Left
City Line, Elmhurst, Jamaica Hills, South Richmond Hill, Westchester Square
2024 General: Harris 61%, Trump 39%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 55%, Cuomo 36%
Mamdani’s victory was not solely a triumph of The Commie Corridor, but under-represented and oft-overlooked New Yorkers: Muslims, South Asians, rent-stabilized tenants. Now, they are the fulcrum of the biggest political story in the country, with cable news pundits and national magazines have been forced to learn the plight of South Richmond Hill, Jamaica, and Westchester Square. A new story, bringing visibility to the lives of those too often ignored, written before our eyes.
One year ago, these working-class communities were the epicenter of the Democratic Party’s failure: lost to the couch, a write-in ballot, or Donald Trump himself.
In the wake of Trump’s victory, Mamdani’s breakout moment as a candidate for Mayor came from talking to voters on Hillside Avenue in Queens, a Bangladeshi corridor that saw one of the nation’s most pronounced shifts to the right. This was the start of an unprecedented level of outreach to South Asian and Muslim voters. Every Friday without fail, the first major Muslim candidate for Mayor would be at a different mosque for Jummah Prayers; on the night of Chaad Raat, the first South Asian man elected to the State Legislature crisscrossed Parkchester and Jamaica Hills. Four days before the Democratic Primary, Mamdani’s team canvassed a head-spinning 135 mosques after their weekly prayer session. On June 24th, as the results from the Board of Elections were broadcast onto a citywide precinct map, Hillside Avenue, emblazoned with Mamdani colors, was finally visible — in more ways than one.
In recent days, the Cuomo campaign and their surrogates have openly embraced Islamophobic rhetoric, intent to rile up their wealthy and zionist base with fear mongering. In doing so, they mirrored the tactics once used against Cuomo’s Italian and Catholic ancestors. Muslim and South Asian voters, ignored by the political class until this campaign, have been subjected to the anti-immigrant reaction that has, regrettably, been part of New York City’s storied history. Yet, every ethnic group has overcome the tide of inflammation on their path to political power. Now, on the precipice of history, these Open Doors can bring the race home for one of their own.
Electorate Estimation: 5-6%
Zohran needs to win greater than 60% (ideally two-thirds).
VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO?
The modern Democratic Party: the donor elite, progressive activists, liberal media, and Black working-class. To what extent will they back their Party’s nominee?
The Capitalist Corridor
The wealthiest (and avowedly zionist) blocks of Manhattan
Upper East Side (Park, Madison, Fifth), Carnegie Hill, Sutton Place, Battery Park City
2024 General: Harris 78%, Trump 22%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 27%, Cuomo 45%, Lander 19%
Save for Orthodox and Hasidic enclaves, the staunchest resistance to Zohran Mamdani comes from the city’s well-heeled older residents. Between Park and Fifth Avenue on the Upper East Side, stretching from Sutton Place to Carnegie Hill, age and affluence meet, culminating in a crescendo of support for Andrew Cuomo. Once the home of the Republican Party’s liberal wing, these billion dollar blocks have realigned towards the Democratic Party during the Trump era.
Here, where The Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank The New York Times, expect both the Democratic nominee, a pro-Palestinian socialist committed to raising this taxes on the wealthy, and Republican nominee, an outer borough populist who frequently rails against the billionaire class, to struggle for votes. While never overwhelming in numbers at the ballot box, The Capitalist Corridor’s influence was felt elsewhere: in editorial boardrooms, multi-million dollar television advertisements, and Super PAC expenditures. For months, these precincts have been the heart of the anti-Mamdani resistance, which has fallen flat, despite its financial largesse.
Through the first few days of Early Voting, The Capitalist Corridor has led the way with respect to voter turnout: offering an early bright spot for Cuomo and mild warning sign for Mamdani. However, amongst the wealthiest, oldest, and most-educated blocks in the nation, where Mamdani hysteria has reached a fever pitch, the question remains: do working-class Black, Hispanic, and Asian New Yorkers feel the same?
Electorate Estimation: 6-7%
Zohran needs to win more than 25% of the vote.
No Kings Marchers
Progressive middle-aged and older voters in Brownstone neighborhoods that broke overwhelmingly for Mamdani and Lander
Park Slope, Windsor Terrace, Carroll Gardens, Hudson Heights, Morningside Heights
2024 General: Harris 90%, Trump 10%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 47%, Cuomo 16%, Lander 30%
The Resistance 2.0
They are angry at the establishment and crave new leadership. They span all ages, embody the politics of New York Magazine and your local Indivisible chapter, and form the backbone of the small dollar donor class. And most importantly, for our purposes, they vote in large numbers. The No Kings Marchers may be wealthy, but affluence has not stymied their radicalization.
In 2016, most of these neighborhoods decisively backed Hillary Clinton, eschewing the democratic socialist rhetoric of Bernie Sanders; only to overwhelmingly reject Clinton acolyte (and former Governor) Andrew Cuomo in favor of Zohran Mamdani, a cadre member of NYC-DSA, less than a decade later. Not only had their ideology changed over time, the political environment had, too. A concurrence of crises, local and national — Trump, Gaza, Cuomo’s resignation, Adams’ corruption — pushed No Kings Marchers to their Party’s anti-establishment, left-leaning flank.
These civically-engaged communities, some of the only places where Kamala Harris did not bleed support last fall, came to the polls in droves this June, squashing Cuomo like a bug. On November 4th, I expect more of the same.
Electorate Estimation: 4-5%
Zohran needs to win more than 70% (honestly, he should aim for three-quarters)
MSNBC Viewers
Liberals who split their votes between Mamdani, Cuomo, and Lander in the Primary
Brooklyn Heights, Forest Hills, Spuyten Duyvil, Upper West Side, Yorkville
2024 General: Harris 81%, Trump 19%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 34%, Cuomo 34%, Lander 22%
The median New York Times reader and cable news watcher, MSNBC viewers are steadfastly liberal, but value technocracy in local government. Predominantly concentrated in Manhattan’s affluent enclaves, they seek candidates in the mold of Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Michael Bloomberg. Instead, they were forced to choose between a democratic socialist, a scandal-scarred relic of the political establishment, and a well-meaning left-liberal with no chance of victory; the closest three-way margin between Mamdani, Lander, and Cuomo.
With the primary decided, many of these voters will fall in line behind the Democratic ticket. While raging debates over Israel may cost the nominee some support among Jewish Democrats, it should not be enough to temper Mamdani’s momentum.
Electorate Estimation: 11-13%
Zohran needs to win a decisive majority (60%+ ideally).
The Black Belt
The most staunchly Democratic neighborhoods in the United States
Brownsville, Canarsie, Co-op City, East Flatbush, Rochdale Village, Wakefield
2024 General: Harris 87%, Trump 13%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 26%, Cuomo 60%
In the Democratic Primary, Zohran Mamdani won White, Hispanic, and Asian voters; whereas the well-known Andrew Cuomo performed best among Black voters.
Across The Black Belt, spanning Canarsie in Brooklyn to Co-op City in the Bronx, Cuomo consistently outperformed Mamdani by double-digits. Nonetheless, the former Governor lacked comparable enthusiasm to that of Eric Adams four years prior, which manifested in lower voter turnout, which ultimately cost him dearly. Since then, Mamdani, armed with the Democratic nomination, has made steady and significant inroads with older Black voters. Now, according to some polls, the African-born Mamdani, who shares the story of his father’s Civil Rights era activism from the church pulpit every Sunday, is leading among African Americans.
No cohort could swing the election’s outcome more than The Black Belt. If Mamdani, the Democrat on the ballot among the nation’s bluest blocks, thrashes Cuomo among Black voters, a mandate will be inevitable. However, were Cuomo to keep the margin close, or even win the Black electorate for a second straight time (despite losing scores of institutional support), the race would narrow. At the very least, uncomfortable narratives about The Left’s struggles with the Black working-class would resurface.
Electorate Estimation: 11-13%
Zohran needs to win at least a plurality (48%+).
OUTER BOROUGH NUANCE
A messy mosaic away from the neat narratives
The Anti-Commie Corridor
Heavily Republican communities with large ancestral Eastern European populations
Borough Park, Gravesend, Manhattan Beach, Midwood, Sheepshead Bay
2024 General: Harris 35%, Trump 65%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 23%, Cuomo 65%
It is not a question as to whether most of the various Hasidic, Sephardic, and Orthodox Jewish sects will vote for Andrew Cuomo, who has made “fighting antisemitism” (and Islamophobic fear mongering) a cornerstone of his campaign, but by what margin. However, while Cuomo has relentlessly courted influential rabbis, most Orthodox communities consistently vote for the Republican at the top of the ticket, a potentially boon to Curtis Sliwa. The Cuomo-Sliwa splits in Borough Park, Kew Gardens Hills, and Ocean Parkway — all of whom voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump — will make-or-break the former Governor’s third party bid.
Farther south, the Russians and Ukrainians of Southern Brooklyn — along the blood red blocks of Sheepshead Bay and Brighton Beach — are far more likely to remain with Sliwa, despite an eleventh hour push from Cuomo to earn their votes, who has cast the Republican nominee as a hopeless spoiler. Mamdani, on track to receive scant support, is hoping for a non-historic turnout against him.
Electorate Estimation: 6-8%
Zohran needs to win a non-negligible amount of the Satmar in South Williamsburg.
The Forgotten People
Lower-income Black & Hispanic voters where the Democratic Party is losing support
Bedford Park, Castle Hill, Highbridge, Hunts Point, Morrisania, Corona, Port Richmond
2024 General: Harris 72%, Trump 28%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 38%, Cuomo 50%
Last November, the Black and Brown working class dramatically shifted away from the Democratic Party. Only three counties in the country experienced a more pronounced swing to the right than The Bronx and Queens. Can Zohran Mamdani, who began his campaign talking to voters on Fordham Road, reverse these troubling trends?
In the Democratic Primary, Cuomo held most of these neighborhoods, albeit by a lesser margin than expected. Unsurprisingly, Cuomo did better in areas with higher Black populations, while Mamdani was stronger in more Hispanic precincts. The democratic socialist who ran on “freezing the rent” for two million rent stabilized tenants did best among the renter class more broadly; while the former Governor with universal name recognition swept every public and senior housing development.
Could Republican Curtis Sliwa, on the back of Trump’s gains last November, submit a surprisingly strong performance? In 2021, Sliwa performed quite well with Chinese immigrants in Southern Brooklyn and Eastern Queens, a precursor to the racial realignment that would come in the following years. However, the red beret Republican failed to make any discernible inroads with working-class Black and Hispanic voters, and, now hindered by a blue wave environment amidst the backlash to Trump 2.0, shows little signs of meaningful improvement four years later.
What percentage of these “lower propensity” voters will simply stay home?
Electorate Estimation: 8-10%
Zohran needs to win a plurality for victory, a majority for a mandate.
Archie Bunker’s Descendants
The dwindling MAGA white ethnics that once anchored New York City’s electorate
Breezy Point, Country Club, Howard Beach, Marine Park, New Dorp, Whitestone
2024 General: Harris 30%, Trump 70%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 35%, Cuomo 49%
In political commentary, the Archie Bunker vote, named after the fictional Queens homeowner from the 1970’s sitcom All in the Family, has become shorthand for the bloc of urban, white, working-class men. During the latter half of the 20th century, many neighborhoods across the outer boroughs (some of which, like Astoria and Throggs Neck, would be represented in Congress by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez decades later) were embodied by the blue-collar, Catholic, white ethnics (Italians, Irish, Greek, Polish, German); most of whom, despite identifying as Democrats, held relatively conservative views, particularly with respect to school busing and abortion.
For decades, the Archie Bunker bloc was the pre-eminent force shaping the contours of New York City politics. After uniting behind their fellow “stoop sitter,” Mario Procaccino, only to fall short to “limousine liberal” John Lindsay, the Archie Bunker vote became a key piece of Ed Koch’s three term coalition, a marriage of white conservatives and reactionary liberals, before migrating to Republican Rudy Giuliani, at the height of racial backlash, and later Michael Bloomberg, foreshadowing the Party realignment that would soon plague the national Democratic Party.
However, since the election of Bill de Blasio, Bunker’s Descendants, now a generation removed from their political heydey, have lacked the ability to influence municipal elections. De Blasio, a Park Slope liberal with a penchant for YMCA workouts and tardiness, routinely tarred and feathered by The New York Post, was particularly offensive to these voters. Yet every November, Bunker’s Descendants cried out in protest, only to be trounced at the ballot box, their votes never adding up to more than thirty percent; an island of red in a deep blue city. As the number of Bunker’s Descendants dwindled year-after-year, the consequence of age and atrophy, it appeared as though their days of influencing New York City elections were over.
Not yet. Amidst the most competitive Mayoral election in sixteen years, Bunker’s Descendants are poised to play a meaningful role in shaping the outcome. On these MAGA-friendly blocks, most will pull the lever for fellow Republican Curtis Sliwa, despite his impossibly long odds of victory. However, some (to what extent remains unknown), will be tempted to not “waste” their vote, and bet on Andrew Cuomo (once a darling of white ethnic New York), the Italian Catholic who can flawlessly pronounce “Kosciuzko.” Ultimately, for Cuomo to have a fighting chance, he will need to peel away a significant percentage of Bunker’s Descendants from Sliwa.
Electorate Estimation: 8-10%
Zohran needs to win a few precincts that voted for Trump (for the narrative war).
Swing States
Neighborhoods where the margin was close between Cuomo and Mamdani in the Democratic Primary AND Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the Presidential Election
Bath Beach, College Point, City Island, Coney Island, Morris Park, Glendale
2024 General: Harris 50%, Trump 50%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 42%, Cuomo 43%
An eclectic mix of Open Doors, Archie Bunker’s Descendants, and Forgotten People (with some Commie Corridor Jr. sprinkled in), the Swing States are New York City’s most interesting blocks, neatly split at both the national and local level.
Here, it will come down to turning out the base. Curtis Sliwa is counting on registered Republicans sticking with their nominee, and building on his inroads with East Asian voters from four years ago; Andrew Cuomo hopes to peel off Irish and Italian Republicans from Sliwa, activate moderate Democrats, and win a sizable chunk of Independents; Zohran Mamdani continues to rely on young voters, straight ticket Democrats (of all races), and his (difficult to poll) working-class coalition.
For Andrew Cuomo to close the gap versus the frontrunner, the former Governor will have to perform far better across these unique pockets than he did during the primary. Here, Cuomo has a greater chance of finishing third, behind Mamdani and Sliwa, than winning a plurality. On the contrary, a strong performance throughout the Swing States from Zohran Mamdani would go a long way in showcasing the appeal of economic populism with working-class voters in politically “purple” areas.
Can Mamdani, who has surpassed expectations at every turn, deliver one last time?
Electorate Estimation: 7-9%
Zohran needs to win around 40%.
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Love this piece. So good! My original prediction was Z would come away with 55-56%. Very unscientific and solely based on door knocking for Z in non-commie corridor neighborhoods where 6 out of 10 conversations were strong/lean Z. I hope he will still get to 55% but more realistically it may be more like 51-52%.
Mamdani hits 50 when the story stops being vibes and starts being receipts. From my last week’s work on symbolic vs instrumental power: turn symbolism into a permission slip for material guarantees. Speak to the Black Belt and the Forgotten People with three promises you can execute in year one, not vibes. 1) Freeze the rent and fund eviction defense. 2) Safer streets through services, lights, transit frequency, not policing theater. 3) Fare-free buses on the busiest routes, faster commutes, real money back in pockets.
“Symbolic power soothes; instrumental power feeds. The former keeps the peace at donor class dinner parties. The latter builds housing, clinics, and futures.”
MSNBC Viewers want a permission structure, give them competence with teeth. No Kings Marchers are already here; provide them with turnout jobs with goals. Capitalist Corridor will clutch pearls; let them. Sliwa is a mascot. Cuomo is a brand recall test. The mandate comes from kitchens and bus stops, not boardrooms. Make the 50 feel inevitable, then make it obvious.
https://twvme.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-center-a-place-that