Love this piece. So good! My original prediction was Z would come away with 55-56%. Very unscientific and solely based on door knocking for Z in non-commie corridor neighborhoods where 6 out of 10 conversations were strong/lean Z. I hope he will still get to 55% but more realistically it may be more like 51-52%.
Mamdani hits 50 when the story stops being vibes and starts being receipts. From my last week’s work on symbolic vs instrumental power: turn symbolism into a permission slip for material guarantees. Speak to the Black Belt and the Forgotten People with three promises you can execute in year one, not vibes. 1) Freeze the rent and fund eviction defense. 2) Safer streets through services, lights, transit frequency, not policing theater. 3) Fare-free buses on the busiest routes, faster commutes, real money back in pockets.
“Symbolic power soothes; instrumental power feeds. The former keeps the peace at donor class dinner parties. The latter builds housing, clinics, and futures.”
MSNBC Viewers want a permission structure, give them competence with teeth. No Kings Marchers are already here; provide them with turnout jobs with goals. Capitalist Corridor will clutch pearls; let them. Sliwa is a mascot. Cuomo is a brand recall test. The mandate comes from kitchens and bus stops, not boardrooms. Make the 50 feel inevitable, then make it obvious.
Liberals who split their votes between Mamdani, Cuomo, and Lander in the Primary
Brooklyn Heights, Forest Hills, Spuyten Duyvil, Upper West Side, Yorkville
2024 General: Harris 81%, Trump 19%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 34%, Cuomo 34%, Lander 22%
The median New York Times reader and cable news watcher, MSNBC viewers are steadfastly liberal, but value technocracy in local government. Predominantly concentrated in Manhattan’s affluent enclaves, they seek candidates in the mold of Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Michael Bloomberg. Instead, they were forced to choose between a democratic socialist, a scandal-scarred relic of the political establishment, and an uninspiring (but well-meaning) left-liberal with no chance of victory; the closest three-way margin between Mamdani, Lander, and Cuomo.
With the primary decided, many of these voters will fall in line behind the Democratic ticket. While raging debates over Israel may cost the nominee some support among Jewish Democrats, it should not be enough to temper Mamdani’s momentum.
Most of the 'MSNBC' /NYT-subscriber mini-districts could also have been dubbed Landerville in the primary. The scattered reliably left-Dem heavy-turnout upper-income donor-disproportionate EDs where Brad came in first in the 1st round (UWS patches, Brooklyn Heights, his old Prospect Heights & Park Slope Council neighborhoods) have like Brad himself been radicalized by Trump and energized by Zohran in the past few months - No Kings-ers now.
Where’s Greenwich village, TriBeCa, Soho, Finance district in your analysis? I was surprised to see Mamdani do so well in the primary in Soho and Finance District/Tribeca.
Checking in as one of the Forgotten People lol. I was actually surprised my precinct voted majority Zohran ( at just over 50%). I do think he will make the biggest gains with Hispanics, many leaders like Adriano Espaillat have backed him now.
I think the most crucial sections are the No Kings and MSNBC districts. Turnout tends to be high here, and one interesting thing I noticed is that there were a lot of Inactive ballots in the primary in these areas (UWS, Chelsea, Riverdale, Park Slope), presumably for Lander voters. We’ll see how successful Zohran has been in getting them to turnout for him.
The Emerson poll just came out as I’m writing this, with 50% support for Zohran to Cuomo’s 25%. Considering they were the closest to a Zohran win, I’m thinking he will at least get 55% of the vote.
Kudos, an exhausting dive, the NYT should feature your analyses, among college educated Black males a reluctance to jump on board, a coven of young DSA white folks running the city is not attractive… Cuomo, with all his worts is a known quality… and, plurality or majority is a one day story, will he surround himself with DSA bros or highly competent managers. a la Bloomberg… who will be his deputy mayors??? and how will he react to a T 10B slice off fed aid?
Love this piece. So good! My original prediction was Z would come away with 55-56%. Very unscientific and solely based on door knocking for Z in non-commie corridor neighborhoods where 6 out of 10 conversations were strong/lean Z. I hope he will still get to 55% but more realistically it may be more like 51-52%.
Completely agree! I think he will get at least 55% since the polls seem to underpoll enthusiasm for him. I wouldn’t be surprised at 60% either though.
Mamdani hits 50 when the story stops being vibes and starts being receipts. From my last week’s work on symbolic vs instrumental power: turn symbolism into a permission slip for material guarantees. Speak to the Black Belt and the Forgotten People with three promises you can execute in year one, not vibes. 1) Freeze the rent and fund eviction defense. 2) Safer streets through services, lights, transit frequency, not policing theater. 3) Fare-free buses on the busiest routes, faster commutes, real money back in pockets.
“Symbolic power soothes; instrumental power feeds. The former keeps the peace at donor class dinner parties. The latter builds housing, clinics, and futures.”
MSNBC Viewers want a permission structure, give them competence with teeth. No Kings Marchers are already here; provide them with turnout jobs with goals. Capitalist Corridor will clutch pearls; let them. Sliwa is a mascot. Cuomo is a brand recall test. The mandate comes from kitchens and bus stops, not boardrooms. Make the 50 feel inevitable, then make it obvious.
https://twvme.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-center-a-place-that
It's a Momdate, Mon. Or if you're Cuomo, a Ma'amdate.
Commie Corridor Sr. (Astoria) resident here - thanks for putting this together! Voted early for Zohran yesterday!
You got my neighborhood right
MSNBC Viewers
Liberals who split their votes between Mamdani, Cuomo, and Lander in the Primary
Brooklyn Heights, Forest Hills, Spuyten Duyvil, Upper West Side, Yorkville
2024 General: Harris 81%, Trump 19%
2025 Primary: Mamdani 34%, Cuomo 34%, Lander 22%
The median New York Times reader and cable news watcher, MSNBC viewers are steadfastly liberal, but value technocracy in local government. Predominantly concentrated in Manhattan’s affluent enclaves, they seek candidates in the mold of Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Michael Bloomberg. Instead, they were forced to choose between a democratic socialist, a scandal-scarred relic of the political establishment, and an uninspiring (but well-meaning) left-liberal with no chance of victory; the closest three-way margin between Mamdani, Lander, and Cuomo.
With the primary decided, many of these voters will fall in line behind the Democratic ticket. While raging debates over Israel may cost the nominee some support among Jewish Democrats, it should not be enough to temper Mamdani’s momentum.
Michael, you rock. I was waiting for this piece and you delivered. Will have notifications on for your tweets on election night, my man.
Most of the 'MSNBC' /NYT-subscriber mini-districts could also have been dubbed Landerville in the primary. The scattered reliably left-Dem heavy-turnout upper-income donor-disproportionate EDs where Brad came in first in the 1st round (UWS patches, Brooklyn Heights, his old Prospect Heights & Park Slope Council neighborhoods) have like Brad himself been radicalized by Trump and energized by Zohran in the past few months - No Kings-ers now.
Sephardic Jews are not an ancestral Eastern European population.
>>who has made fighting antisemitism (and "Islamophobic fear mongering") a cornerstone of his campaign
FIFY
depends on which ones and if you count SE Europe. Some of them are
Where’s Greenwich village, TriBeCa, Soho, Finance district in your analysis? I was surprised to see Mamdani do so well in the primary in Soho and Finance District/Tribeca.
I feel like that’s firmly MSNBC Viewers territory. A lot of renters and younger professionals probably gave him a good boost there.
Checking in as one of the Forgotten People lol. I was actually surprised my precinct voted majority Zohran ( at just over 50%). I do think he will make the biggest gains with Hispanics, many leaders like Adriano Espaillat have backed him now.
I think the most crucial sections are the No Kings and MSNBC districts. Turnout tends to be high here, and one interesting thing I noticed is that there were a lot of Inactive ballots in the primary in these areas (UWS, Chelsea, Riverdale, Park Slope), presumably for Lander voters. We’ll see how successful Zohran has been in getting them to turnout for him.
The Emerson poll just came out as I’m writing this, with 50% support for Zohran to Cuomo’s 25%. Considering they were the closest to a Zohran win, I’m thinking he will at least get 55% of the vote.
The map has Manhattan Valley and much of the Upper East Side as Commie Junior, but neither is in the enumeration. Which one is right?
are there any other indications of harlem joining the commie corridor?? 👀 i'd love better reps
Kudos, an exhausting dive, the NYT should feature your analyses, among college educated Black males a reluctance to jump on board, a coven of young DSA white folks running the city is not attractive… Cuomo, with all his worts is a known quality… and, plurality or majority is a one day story, will he surround himself with DSA bros or highly competent managers. a la Bloomberg… who will be his deputy mayors??? and how will he react to a T 10B slice off fed aid?