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Cole Sandick's avatar

As a leftist who cares deeply about being tactical in everything we say and do—I think Zohran is absolutely right to stay out of this—let me make this case for Osse.

The left in a position of borderline unprecedented momentum and strength. We have at our disposal an enormously unpopular Republican administration and an enormously unpopular Democratic establishment. Those two things are so incredibly difficult to get at the same time, and it’s imperative that we use this situation to acquire as much power in the coming years as humanly possible.

I don’t think it’s true that the anti-establishment backlash within the Democratic Party is confined to educated, informed voters. A multitude of polls, elections, and vibes suggest that the sense that Dem leaders are weak and incapable of meeting the moment is a consensus held by a supermajority of the rank and file.

Osse won’t win by running a normal race centered around the district, but if he nationalizes the contest and makes it a referendum on the establishment in general, he has a nonzero chance. “Do you think Democratic leaders are doing a good job standing up to Trump,” should be plastered on every bit of Osse’s messaging.

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Godelieve's avatar

Yes. This is my district, and I'll be knocking doors mostly out of anti-establishment anger than any positive interest in Osse... maybe that'll evolve more over time.

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Cole Sandick's avatar

💪

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Michelle's avatar

The question is should the left expend that newfound political capital—not to mention limited resources—on Osse? He had distanced himself from DSA after joining and quitting in less than a month back in 2020, he lied about voting for Bernie and his statement on Palestine leaves a lot to be desired

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Diogenes Camus's avatar

The problem is that Jeffries may be unpopular nationally and outside his district but in his district, he's popular with 70% approval. Challengers obviously struggle against popular incumbents compared to unpopular incumbents.

Honestly, I just think Zohran and AOC are waiting for Chi Osse to build a strong campaign first and some momentum before they decide to hitch their horses to him. Chi Osse should take a page out of Zohran's book and run a great grassroots campaign first that speaks to the Congressional district's constituents's needs, not snipe at his own party for not endorsing him the second he announced his run. Mamdani only really got his endorsements when he was a contender and polling double digits. Osse should perhaps focus on getting the DSA endorsement, support, and infrastructure first if he wants even a chance at defeating Hakeen Jeffries in a primary.

And honestly, the NYC DSA is pretty mixed leaning towards negative on endorsing Osse, quite a few of whom think Osse is an opportunist and not a years long cadre like Zohran, AOC, etc.

And another major thing is that Osse just does not have a single shot at ousting Jeffries in a primary. Jeffries may be disliked nationally but he's popular in his Congressional district, which is also like the most pro-Israel Congressional district in NYC, with Osse's City Council district only intersecting with 20% of Jeffries's Congressional district. Not only that but Jeffries is the second highest fundraiser for Democrats i the House (but a distant second to AOC). And while I'm sure people want to think Osse vs Jeffries would be like a second Mamdani vs Cuomo but the dynamics are not really the same at all. Osse is not Mamdani and Jeffries is not Cuomo. Cuomo was already an unpopular scandal ridden sex pest who almost everybody, both locally and nationally, despised. Jeffries meanwhile is not as scandal ridden and he's popular (70% approval) within his district. Challengers have very hard times primarying popular incumbents compared to unpopular incumbents. And Jeffries has got an endless amount of establishment Democrat politicians and figures that he could tap whose endorsement who would be devastating in his district.

**If DSA endorsed and supported Osse and he primaried Hakeem Jeffries, the primary race would be one that got national attention and Jeffries would curbstomp Osse. Jefffies and the Democrat establishment get an unneeded victory while the DSA and progressives get a major and public loss and it would kill the momentum of progressives electorally, with people thinking that progressives are unelectable. There's no need to give Jeffries and the Dem Establishment an unneeded victory and to kill their own momentum for a race that's just not viable and worth it.**

The DSA has a whole slate of endorsed socialist/progressive candidates that they're running next year for City Councils and the State Senate, trying to stack the deck as much as possible to help make Mamdani's affordability agenda a reality and to concretely show that progressives and socialists government delivers and is thus desirable. Making Mamdani's affordability agenda a reality is the top priority.

If they did endorse Osse and took him up in the electoral slate, then their already stretched resources would be at a breaking point. Either they wouldn't be able to give the full organization support for Osse's campaign that he would need or it would have to come at the cost of the other DSA supported campaigns. Osse just has a snowball's chance in hell against Jeffries in his district. From a stategic and logistics standpoint, there's no utilitarian benefit in wasting the time, energy, money, volunteers, etc. to campaign for a candidate that most DSA members are lukewarm about and don't really trust or are enthusiastic for. All in a race where they got a 99.999% chance in losing and which would require several miracles to happen and once-in-a-century voter turnout (as in, more voters in the district would have to turn out for Osse than they did for *Obama* . Yeah, that's not happening) in order for Osse to have even a miniscule chance of not losing to Jeffries by 5 points, much less winning. They would love to get Hakeem Jeffries ousted but the circumstances and material conditions are just not there.

The NYC DSA does not have an endless amount of resources to spend. The list of electoral victories they achieved are because they were ruthlessly pragmatic and strategic in who to endorse/support and in which specific races at which specific times and circumstances. Not only that but a majority of the DSA members have to really be enthusiatic for a race in over to volunteer, such is the democratic culture of the DSA.

So yeah, Mamdani and AOC not endorsing Chi Osse is not because they don't like him but because they are loyal to and listening to their DSA rank-and-file and are prioritizing the pragmatic strategy of making Mamdani's affordability agenda a reality and proving that progressive/socialist governance works. They got their eyes on the ball. And Osse is just a bet they can't afford to take.

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Justin E. Schutz's avatar

Yes! Thank you. The conversation on the core failure of Democratic Party leadership is essential. Let the past go, literally invite them all to please leave. Reboot, rebuild re-energize, from the roots up. And remember the “Corwin Amendment”, let’s not do anything like that “shit” again!

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Samuel Lipson's avatar

As a leftist who wants Jeffries out, I think Mamdani has the right idea in that even if it's the morally correct thing, it may be politically counterproductive, especially if a hypothetical Jeffries ousting results in a further right/more competent House Minority Leader/Speaker.

It's not like I'm rooting for Jeffries, but the big heads of the progressive movement *probably* have the right idea washing their hands of this.

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Mike Johnson's avatar

"(ironically, the young corporate lawyer campaigning on "change" and "reform" was the top choice of the urban professional class he now openly derides)" - always shocked that this doesn't get more coverage - that an emergent professional class largely powered Jeffries' initial political journey- a class without much affinity for the civil rights-oriented old guard. Very similar to the origins of Obama and Booker.

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Alex's avatar
Nov 18Edited

Mamdani’s movement proved power belongs to the people, not to those who endorse candidates. If mobilization efforts are seriously made, there is no reason why we cannot unseat Jeffries as he has failed to rise to this national crisis. Jeffries is a corporate Democrat, not a working class fighter.

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Jack PG's avatar

I think Chi Osse should run, but I really hope NYC DSA doesn’t endorse him, for a myriad of reasons. Great piece!

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Godelieve's avatar

I think he really needs the WFP support as well

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Joe Cook's avatar

Nice recap and framing! Lots of good insights! Thanks for giving this early handicapping of an intra-party matchup.

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mll's avatar

Beautifully crafted.

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Getlemanstimes's avatar

i live in this district, too, and chi's 2021 campaign was the most active i have ever seen in the neighborhood. his campaign (and chi personally!) were constantly knocking on doors, and posted up and every park and subway stop in the neighborhood, and engaging everyone they saw. like zohran (whose presence in the neighborhood was actually less than chi's) i think you ignore the impact of a door-knocking campaign like that at your peril.

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Unset's avatar

"Central Brooklyn’s atrophying Democratic machine"

Lol. If those clowns are a machine they are a 55 Packard with weeds growing through the windshield. I enjoy their barely-literate email updates, which they usually need to send two or three times with corrections.

That said, there are nowhere near enough young white forever-maskers in Bed Stuy to get this done.

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Zachary Clein's avatar

Is this going to be a herculean task unlike anything we’ve ever seen? Most likely. Jeffries, despite what those of us nationally think of him, is tremendously powerful and the full brunt of that power will bear down on Chi and anyone else who is aligned with him. To go after someone so powerful is an immense gamble. High risk, high reward situation personified.

That said, there will never be a better time to try and oust him than now. If democrats succeed in retaking the House then Jeffries is sure to become Speaker and it will probably be decades before another opportunity arises. This is the weakest he will ever be so I’m all for Chi taking this argument to his voters. At the very least, a somewhat competitive primary could force Jeffries to take certain stances on positions he doesn’t want to take a stance on.

For as much worry there is going after him could stop the Left’s momentum, we should also worry that throwing cold water on young candidates ambitions could do the same thing. I worry the damage could be even worse if we end up doing it to ourselves. If there was a time to press our advantage, it would be now.

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Diogenes Camus's avatar

The problem is that Jeffries has 70% approval in his district. He may be unpopulad nationally and outside his district but within hia district, he's very popular.

Honestly, I just think Zohran and AOC are waiting for Chi Osse to build a strong campaign first and some momentum before they decide to hitch their horses to him. Chi Osse should take a page out of Zohran's book and run a great grassroots campaign first that speaks to the Congressional district's constituents's needs, not snipe at his own party for not endorsing him the second he announced his run. Mamdani only really got his endorsements when he was a contender and polling double digits. Osse should perhaps focus on getting the DSA endorsement, support, and infrastructure first if he wants even a chance at defeating Hakeen Jeffries in a primary.

And honestly, the NYC DSA is pretty mixed leaning towards negative on endorsing Osse, quite a few of whom think Osse is an opportunist and not a years long cadre like Zohran, AOC, etc.

And another major thing is that Osse just does not have a single shot at ousting Jeffries in a primary. Jeffries may be disliked nationally but he's popular in his Congressional district, which is also like the most pro-Israel Congressional district in NYC, with Osse's City Council district only intersecting with 20% of Jeffries's Congressional district. Not only that but Jeffries is the second highest fundraiser for Democrats i the House (but a distant second to AOC). And while I'm sure people want to think Osse vs Jeffries would be like a second Mamdani vs Cuomo but the dynamics are not really the same at all. Osse is not Mamdani and Jeffries is not Cuomo. Cuomo was already an unpopular scandal ridden sex pest who almost everybody, both locally and nationally, despised. Jeffries meanwhile is not as scandal ridden and he's popular (70% approval) within his district. Challengers have very hard times primarying popular incumbents compared to unpopular incumbents. And Jeffries has got an endless amount of establishment Democrat politicians and figures that he could tap whose endorsement who would be devastating in his district.

**If DSA endorsed and supported Osse and he primaried Hakeem Jeffries, the primary race would be one that got national attention and Jeffries would curbstomp Osse. Jefffies and the Democrat establishment get an unneeded victory while the DSA and progressives get a major and public loss and it would kill the momentum of progressives electorally, with people thinking that progressives are unelectable. There's no need to give Jeffries and the Dem Establishment an unneeded victory and to kill their own momentum for a race that's just not viable and worth it.**

The DSA has a whole slate of endorsed socialist/progressive candidates that they're running next year for City Councils and the State Senate, trying to stack the deck as much as possible to help make Mamdani's affordability agenda a reality and to concretely show that progressives and socialists government delivers and is thus desirable. Making Mamdani's affordability agenda a reality is the top priority.

If they did endorse Osse and took him up in the electoral slate, then their already stretched resources would be at a breaking point. Either they wouldn't be able to give the full organization support for Osse's campaign that he would need or it would have to come at the cost of the other DSA supported campaigns. Osse just has a snowball's chance in hell against Jeffries in his district. From a stategic and logistics standpoint, there's no utilitarian benefit in wasting the time, energy, money, volunteers, etc. to campaign for a candidate that most DSA members are lukewarm about and don't really trust or are enthusiastic for. All in a race where they got a 99.999% chance in losing and which would require several miracles to happen and once-in-a-century voter turnout (as in, more voters in the district would have to turn out for Osse than they did for *Obama* . Yeah, that's not happening) in order for Osse to have even a miniscule chance of not losing to Jeffries by 5 points, much less winning. They would love to get Hakeem Jeffries ousted but the circumstances and material conditions are just not there.

The NYC DSA does not have an endless amount of resources to spend. The list of electoral victories they achieved are because they were ruthlessly pragmatic and strategic in who to endorse/support and in which specific races at which specific times and circumstances. Not only that but a majority of the DSA members have to really be enthusiatic for a race in over to volunteer, such is the democratic culture of the DSA.

So yeah, Mamdani and AOC not endorsing Chi Osse is not because they don't like him but because they are loyal to and listening to their DSA rank-and-file and are prioritizing the pragmatic strategy of making Mamdani's affordability agenda a reality and proving that progressive/socialist governance works. They got their eyes on the ball. And Osse is just a bet they can't afford to take.

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Jessica Benjamin's avatar

Better case but unlikely scenario would be unseating HJ as Dem Caucus leader. Why is there no talk about something innovative: like a campaign to get all progressive members to demand HJ disown AIPAC and apologize for his surrender to corporate politics. All for primaries and electoral moves but maybe Left energy aimed at directing the national anger toward such clear demands should accompany something purely local and complicated at that. Wish DSA could do more than endorse and support in NYC.

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Matt McIntosh's avatar

Watching closely from Seattle. I think endorsements mostly don’t matter, and Osse would be foolish to spend a ton of time pursuing those that he likely won’t get. Approach legacy institutions, activist organizations, and disaffected voters online with a sharp but positive contrast to Jeffries. Say you respect Jeffries’ relationships. Likely lose, but expand a positive name id for yourself. This is all a tough needle to thread. Hoping he can win it, of course, but not expecting him to.

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Dora Mercedes's avatar

The the voters in his district will be the ones who decide, ultimately. I don't think it's in the best interest of Mamdani and his administration to pick a side before they're even in office when the whole world is looking at what they'll be able to accomplish in the first 100 days. Like someone else's campaign shouldn't be their priority. Meet the voters where they are, speak to their needs, and let them decide at the ballot box.

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Goodman Peter's avatar

Five months into his mayorality Z will play a major role in the political arena, if you stay on the sidelines you alienate all Dems … and dumping Jeffries and Schumer would cost the state billions, for the Dems it’s a lose/lose, freshmen congress members doesn’t can’t get much beyond a bathroom key, Jeffries as speaker is worth billions to the state.

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Paul Werner's avatar

He's worth billions to the State of Israel, that's for sure.

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Wesley Hoy's avatar

This is going to be the flashpoint race in 2028 if he moves forward. Godspeed to Chi Osse.

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osman's avatar

Do you see any scenarios where Chi Ossé outperforms Zohran's numbers with, or otherwise activates, black voters under 45 in any parts of the district?

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