13 Comments

Very informative article! Never knew about the Hikind and Lander connection.

One minor nitpick, New York City is not getting whiter as you claim in the article. It is getting less Black and more Hispanic and Asian. The NYTimes article (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/nyregion/black-residents-nyc.html) you link says so explicitly

"Citywide, white residents now make up about 31 percent of the population, according to census data, Hispanic residents 28 percent and Asian residents nearly 16 percent. While the white population has stayed about the same, the Asian population grew by 34 percent and Hispanic population grew by 7 percent, according to the data."

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Thank you for reading, and yes I completely agree - which is why I carefully mentioned the "electorate" was getting whiter. I suppose the "mirroring population trends" was somewhat lazy and muddied that detail, but the former was my intention.

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So here's an interesting question: what happens if Jumaane becomes the incumbent mayor? (Not THAT implausible given all the investigations swirling around Adams right now.) Does Lander have the same odds when he's up against his old pal, the Kwisatz Haderach of NYC politics?

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Thanks for the read! Any thoughts on Andrew Cuomo's potential entrance into the race?

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Let me express my doubts that any candidate against Councilmember Hanif "will seek to make the campaign a referendum on incumbent’s support for a ceasefire" ("support for a ceasefire" seems an inapt way to describe Hanif's position that the entirety of Israel is occupied territory, and that October 7th was chickens coming home to roost), but will more likely fought out on quality of life concerns

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Nice read! Appreciated the rich history of Brad's first runs. I am a longtime supporter of his but still see a couple issues that he has to navigate, besides the lack of NYT endorsement which you noted and I think is a big loss:

- Has he actually done a good job as comptroller? It's not actually clear to me if the answer is yes, and there've been some (mostly quiet) rumblings in progressive groups about his performance

- Can he hold together his coalition? I think liberals and progressives (i.e., socialists and more DSA-adjacent groups) are at odds to a greater extent now than they were 2 years ago, in my opinion. You already noted how he held together everyone from Sarsour to Hikind in the past, but I'm not sure he can do that as well now. However, I don't think Israel-Palestine will be a big issue in next year's primary so the animosity may die down some.

- Has his vision of politics changed? My impression is that his personal politic is very much rooted in the identity/deferential politics that were dominant from 2016-2020. I do not think that is a winning strategy now. His supporting coalition is too broad and fraught for him to play deference politics.

- How will other contenders impact him? I believe Brad tends to play nice especially with those on his ideological side. Will they team up for some sort of slate approach? This is a difficult ask but I've heard that it's one some big players are pushing. My concern is: does he then get tarred with the scandals and issues of other candidates? For example, if Zohran were to run, whether you agree with him or not, you know what he's going to talk about and you know what the headlines will be. Is Lander predisposed to defend him and drag himself down alongside him?

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Thank you for this! I look forward to reading more of your pieces as the election approaches.

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Also, if you'll let me opine here - I don't really dig the snark towards Kathryn Garcia here. She'd never held elected office, sure, but neither has Maya Wiley, who has zero working-class bona fides and whose main qualification was "appears on MSNBC a lot." I can't think of an explanation for the disparity in how the two are discussed that doesn't boil down to journalists being more sympathetic to "black progressive in charge of anti-racism nonprofit" than "white centrist in charge of garbage trucks."

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Her main qualifications were working as counsel to de Blasio and working for the U.S. Attorney Office for the Southern District of New York. It's on Wikipedia.

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Yes, I know. I like Maya Wiley! I'm being maximally uncharitable to make a point here: "woman who had some unelected, unglamorous jobs in Blaz's administration, whose profile was higher than the median Blaz staffer thanks to positive coverage in liberal news outlets, and whose stature in the polls was based on one particular well-timed endorsement" is a good description of Garcia *and* Wiley. IMO they both had better resumes to be mayor than a borough president or a... whatever Andrew Yang's deal is.

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Eric Adams cannot win a ranked choice primary in 2025. He'll cry that RCV is unconstitutional, sue, lose, and then run as an independent (or Republican???) Then what? The general is not ranked choice - could he still win a majority?

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I think you mean a "plurality"

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Thanks for the deep dive. Brad is smart and has integrity - I’m thrilled he decided to run now!

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