Who will succeed Jerry Nadler?

The race for New York's Twelfth Congressional District begins...

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As the sun set on Labor Day weekend, Rep. Jerry Nadler announced his retirement after thirty-two years in Congress. Nadler, 78, the Dean of New York’s Congressional delegation and a “pillar of the Democratic Party’s [liberal] old guard,” stepped aside to facilitate generational change, scarred from Joe Biden’s decline last year.

The departure of Nadler from New York’s 12th Congressional District, which spans both sides of Central Park, creates a sought-after political vacuum at the heart of Manhattan, and a generational opportunity for the next representative. In many respects, the Twelfth District is the epicenter of the cultural, financial and media elite; including Museum Mile on Fifth Avenue, Billionaires Row on Central Park South, and The New York Times headquarters in Times Square. The constituency is the wealthiest of any Congressional District in the United States.

Nadler is well representative of the Twelfth District’s ideological median. The Chair of the House Judiciary Committee during Donald Trump’s first term, Nadler famously brought a bag from Zabar’s, the iconic gourmet emporium on 79th Street, to impeachment proceedings. A proud zionist, Nadler has nonetheless sharpened his criticism of the Israeli government in recent weeks. When the House reconvenes, the Co-Chair of the Jewish Caucus, who represents more of Abraham’s descendents than any other member of Congress, plans to support an offensive weapons ban. Not a political boss in the classic sense, Nadler’s multi-decade immersion in local politics has inspired generations of loyalty. Forced to choose between two polarizing candidates, the Twelfth District split nearly 50-50 in the Democratic Primary for Mayor, between democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani and former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Nadler endorsed neither, but backed Mamdani immediately upon his victory, becoming a key surrogate for the Democratic nominee in the weeks thereafter.

The Path To Victory in NY-12 is unique. Stratified by Age, the most predictive variable for voter preference in the aforementioned Mayoral Primary, the Twelfth District ranks in the 95th percentile for the Silent Generation, and the 99th for Millennials, but with the lowest number of Generation-Z in the nation. The New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, ascendant in the wake of Mamdani’s triumph, have only one elected official here (Kristen Gonzalez, whose district is anchored by the Commie Corridor of Western Queens and North Brooklyn). Democratic clubs, moribund in many corners of the city, remain an important part of the local political ecosystem. Organized labor, the quintessential backbone of the Democratic coalition, tantamount to coalition building in the outer boroughs, lacks a foothold in this white-collar, affluent district (save for the teacher’s union). Rather, in the most-educated (and wealthy) district in America, the whims of The New York Times and prestige media is akin to gospel. Historically, “liberal technocrats” — in the mold of Kathryn Garcia, Scott Stringer, or Michael Bloomberg — have done well. Yet, for all the cultural spoils and institutional influence throughout the Twelfth District, geography may play the most important role in anointing the next Member of Congress.

For decades, Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Side were deliberately placed in separate Congressional Districts, despite their comparable racial and class character, a nod to the culture that differentiated West from East: the former, historically-Jewish, was decidedly more liberal (and overwhelmingly Democrat) than the latter, historically-waspy and old moneyed (home to countless ancestral Independents and Republicans). That all changed in 2022, when a court-appointed special master combined both sides of Central Park, narrowing the Twelfth to a single borough, stretching south to 14th Street. In the process, Representatives Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, neighboring septuagenarian staples of the Democratic Party, were forced to fight to the (metaphorical) death. The West Side prevailed.

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Changing of the Guard

While the race will undoubtedly be crowded, several otherwise marquee contenders will be missing. State Senator Brad Hoylman-Sigal, who contemplated a run for adjacent 10th Congressional District four years ago, will become the newly-minted Manhattan Borough President come January, robbing the field of a pre-eminent contender. Despite residing farther uptown, Mark Levine would have been well-positioned to appeal to voters on both sides of Central Park, were he too not slated for higher office in the new year. Once Nadler’s top protégé, Scott Stringer has seen his electoral prospects diminish over the past five years after two unsuccessful campaigns for Mayor (the first of which was irrevocably derailed by sexual harassment allegations). Were this vacancy to have occurred last decade, Stringer would have been a shoe-in to succeed Nadler. “I believe that the next congressmember should fight like hell to continue Social Security,” Stringer told Gothamist, “It should not be a person who is on Social Security.” Had the incumbent retired a few years down the road, Virginia Maloney — daughter of three-decade, East Side Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney — now the Democratic nominee for a Manhattan-based City Council seat, would have been in the mix as her mother’s heir. Out for vengeance following her crushing and abrupt defeat to Nadler in 2022, the eldest Maloney (age 79) may be tempted to reclaim the seat she held for thirty years. However, she would face a steep climb in returning to Congress; Maloney’s battle with Nadler was ugly, as she implied her West Side colleague was “senile.” Even beforehand, the East Side incumbent was hemorrhaging support across her district, eking out narrow victories in both 2018 and 2020. The next generation of Upper East Side politicos are no longer deferring their ambitions. For these reasons, I expect her to (ultimately) remain on the sidelines. Given the seventy-eight year old Nadler stressed the theme of “generational change” in his retirement, elected officials such as Linda Rosenthal and Liz Kreuger, both 67, have unsurprisingly declined.

Several others may be on the outside looking in…

When Liam Elkind announced that he would be running against Jerry Nadler, it was under the pretense of challenging the gerontocracy. Now, with Nadler out and a plethora of younger candidates on deck, the rationale behind Elkind’s bid has evaporated (along with any goodwill in Jerry-world). He’ll need to find a compelling message, quickly, because thus far I have not seen one. Elkind, who resides in the 69th Assembly District (represented by Lasher) is rumored to be considering dropping down and running for State Legislature. Suraj Patel has already run for Congress three times (challenging Maloney in 2018, 2020, and 2022). Could the fourth time be the charm? The rationale, in a split field, would be simple: “If I get the people who already voted for me to vote for me again, I’ll win.” However, it doesn’t help Patel’s case that, in the interim between campaigns, he has acquired a reputation as being relatively absent from the district.

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In the mix…

West Side City Council Member Erik Bottcher’s problem is one of geography, as relatively few votes in NY12 can be traced to his district, based in Hells Kitchen and Chelsea (which includes a noticeable portion in the neighboring 10th Congressional District). Indeed, any conceivable path-to-victory runs through the Upper East or Upper West Side; however, both sides of Central Park are poised to have their own standard bearers. While Bottcher easily won his Council seat, much of his success was owed to being Chief of Staff to Corey Johnson (the Speaker and outgoing incumbent); four years later, it is unclear how Bottcher’s institutional support and fundraising would scale up against more battle-tested opponents. One of the only openly-gay candidates in the running, Bottcher’s record on LGBTQ+ rights will boost him along the West Side, but identity appeals alone will not singlehandedly deliver the district’s significant gay population — just ask Mondaire Jones. Angling for Brad Hoylman’s soon-to-be-vacant State Senate seat or Tony Simone’s Assembly seat (both of which have no term limits) seems wiser.

Cynthia Nixon parlayed her award-winning acting career into thirty-four percent of the vote versus Governor Andrew Cuomo, over-performing in the well-heeled neighborhoods that would eventually become New York’s 12th Congressional District. A proud leftist, who was endorsed by NYC-DSA and the Working Families Party during her insurgent run for Governor, Nixon was one of the first to back Zohran Mamdani’s longshot bid for Mayor. Across the spectrum of progressive politics in New York City, Nixon has buy-in from activists, influential organizations, and the next generation of elected officials, many of whom she has helped raise money for. Were the left, emboldened in the Mamdani Era, to dream of a democratic socialist winning a plurality in the wealthiest district in the United States, many would first look to Nixon.

President Kennedy’s only grandson, Jack Schlossberg, has already formed an exploratory committee. Raised on the Upper East Side, the son of Caroline Kennedy has spoken at the previous two Democratic National Conventions, while writing about politics for Vogue, TIME, and New York Magazine. Undoubtedly, the Harvard Law School graduate would be the most prolific “poster” in the race, and seems well suited for the short-form, vertical video era. One can imagine Schlossberg organically building enthusiasm with younger voters on social media, provided his campaign reflects the left-leaning values of his peers, while greeting older voters alongside mother Caroline at street fairs and farmer’s markets, as the national press hangs on every word. Schlossberg’s greatest asset and most pronounced weakness is that, save for his revered double-barrelled name, the Kennedy heir remains a relatively blank canvas. In a district that prides itself on substance, he will be tested early.

Will he be the next Zohran Mamdani or Dianne Morales?

MSNBC political analyst Molly Jong Fast was “thinking about challenging Nadler” in February. Nonetheless, in an interview with POLITICO, Jong Fast stressed that her preference was for someone else to run: “If a good communicator and a serious Democrat runs for that seat, then I absolutely will not.” With Nadler out of the picture, and a crowded field rife with establishment politicos, a well-known legacy media figure with press connections remains an intriguing archetype. In fact, someone capable of seizing attention, expanding the electorate, with a pre-existing grassroots base could transcend the district’s West—East binary.

That candidate, in every respect, was Lina Khan.

What began as nothing more than Twitter musing took on a life of its own in the days after Nadler announced his retirement — and for good reason. Khan, who lives a few blocks north of the district (there are no residency requirements for Congress), is beloved across the progressive left — hosting town halls with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Zohran Mamdani. Yet, it was her technocratic bona fides, embodied by her widely-celebrated tenure as Chair of the Federal Trade Commissioner during the Biden Administration, that made her an intriguing candidate for higher office, capable of coalition-building across ideology and class. The Mamdani Coalition: Millennial and Gen-Z progressives, cost-conscious renters, and the growing number of South Asian and Muslim voters — more than fifty-five thousand first place votes in the Twelfth District — would have been Khan’s for the taking. However, the former FTC Chair unequivocally shut down the idea on The Bulwark podcast last week: “I’m not a politician… running for Congress is not something I am interested in.” Now, many of those lower-propensity voters (think younger, more “anti-establishment”) will have fewer incentives to vote, let alone volunteer or donate in what promises to be a more “traditional” electorate.

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The Inner Circle

Khan’s withdrawal narrows the top contenders list, at this very early juncture, to only two candidates. In a sign of generational change, neither held public office as little three years ago. Personally, I know both quite well: they are my past, and present, representatives in the State Assembly, Alex Bores and Micah Lasher.

Their legislative districts mirror the nuances and ideological differences across a Congressional seat that split down the middle between Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo. Lasher’s 69th Assembly District — spanning Morningside Heights, Manhattan Valley, and the Upper West Side (north of 81st Street) — voted for Mamdani by seventeen points; Bores’ 73rd Assembly District — the oldest and wealthiest in New York State, includes the Upper East Side’s most affluent corridor (Park, Madison, Fifth) and Midtown East — voted for Cuomo, a resident of tony Sutton Place, by almost twenty-seven percent.

First elected in 2022, Bores out-hustled a crowded field and prevailed by less than five hundred votes. Bypassed by progressive organizations (the Working Families Party endorsed Kellie Leeson), spurned by older institutions (the atrophying Lexington Democratic club backed Russell Squire), nor the favorite of moneyed elites (who supported Adam Roberts), Bores was widely considered the underdog. He bridged the gap with work ethic: greeting commuters outside subway stations, standing on street corners, and handing out literature at green markets and street fairs. At the #6 train station on 77th Street, I saw him no less than five times (as did my family). Without a doubt, he loves tried-and-true retail politics, and the elbow grease paid off handsomely; Bores still credits his tireless glad-handing as the reason he ultimately won. To this day, whenever I see Bores in public, our conversations are inevitably interrupted because he is greeted by constituent passersby. Undoubtedly, he understands the personal, relationship-based aspect of politics very well. Nor is this ethic confined to the Upper East Side: I’ve seen Bores at Claire Valdez’s inauguration in Sunnyside and Yusef Salaam’s victory celebration in Harlem. Since he won his Assembly seat, those appearances have included trips to the Upper West Side…

Bores, 34, has already eyed higher office once before, flirting with a run for Manhattan Borough President, only to ultimately decline. With Keith Powers termed-out of office, the Maloney dynasty either too young or too old, and Julie Menin, at least for now, preoccupied with the City Council Speaker’s race, the deck of elected officials on the East Side appears clear for Bores to run for Congress.

Even so, the two-term Assembly Member would face an uphill climb. For one, while Bores would perform well within his district, the whims of his constituents — older, wealthier, more moderate and pro-Israel — are an imperfect proxy for the rest of the Congressional District. The other half of the Upper East Side, Yorkville, is less politically homogenous and more ideological; liberal West Siders Nadler and Hoylman-Sigal picked up many votes there versus “local” East Side candidates Maloney and Powers. Farther south, both Nadler and Mamdani, decidedly to the left of their opponents, enjoyed comparable success in Murray Hill, Kips Bay, and Stuyvesant Town — undoubtedly affluent, but also younger and more renter-focused. Furthermore, there are (historically) more Democratic votes to be found along the West Side; not to mention more established political infrastructure and institutional cohesion. Both Nadler and Hoylman-Sigal only lost one precinct — a public housing development in Chelsea — between West 15th Street and West 100th Street, more than four miles worth of votes. In the contest to succeed Nadler, power brokers on the Upper West Side are lining up behind one of their own: Micah Lasher.

Lasher, 43, has been enmeshed in New York City politics for over two decades. As a teenager, he graduated from magician to “political wunderkind,” helping a plethora of candidates up and down the West Side of Manhattan. From his dorm room at NYU, the Stuyvesant High School alum founded the firm that later became consulting giant SKDKnickerbocker. On September 11th, Lasher was crisscrossing Lower Manhattan, managing the City Council campaign of Brad Hoylman before the primary was abruptly cancelled as the Twin Towers were attacked. Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s chief negotiator in Albany, Lasher earned a laudatory New York Times profile at the tender age of twenty-eight. Running for office was a question of when, not if. A shoe-in for City Council in the late 2000’s, term limit extensions foiled his plan to run. Campaigning for a highly-coveted (and gerrymandered) State Senate seat along the West Side several years later, Lasher fell short by three-hundred votes. A key advisor to both Scott Stringer and Eric Schneiderman, a top position in City Hall or Albany was inevitable, until personal scandal leveled both of their careers. As Micah Lasher turned forty, his political odyssey had been defined by a series of what ifs.

Perhaps it was not meant to be? Lasher, Governor Kathy Hochul’s policy director, resigned himself to a future behind-the-scenes. Then, without warning, State Assembly Member “Danny” O’Donnell — Lasher’s representative in Albany — retired from politics. The magician had pulled a rabbit out of the hat.

Lasher may not have been an incumbent, but his institutional support was incumbent-esque. Almost every local elected official endorsed him. He raised more than half a million dollars. The many local Democratic clubs backed him by landslide votes. After helping countless others reach their dream of elected office, Lasher was on the precipice of achieving his own. However, Eli Northrup did not accept his coronation.

Northrup, a public defender supported by the progressive Working Families Party, lacked the institutional connections of his opponent. Rather than make peace with a second place finish, he did the unthinkable: criticize Lasher’s record, which included work for the Republican Bloomberg and the Charter School lobby. A compare and contrast mailer, disseminated by the Northrup campaign, ruffled feathers. Bristling at the mailer's “negativity,” the episode revealed a vulnerability on Lasher’s political left. Instead of standing pat and ignoring the criticism, the frontrunner pushed in his chips. A call was placed to his allies, Jerry Nadler and Ruth Messinger. Soon thereafter, Democrats across the Upper West Side and Morningside Heights opened their mailboxes, only to be greeted with an 8.5 x 22 brochure mailer: “What is happening now in the Assembly race to succeed Danny O’Donnell is so disheartening. One of the candidates, Eli Northrup, has begun sending negative attack mailings that distort Micah Lasher’s record and paint a picture of him that is fundamentally dishonest and unfair.” This was no magic trick; it was the art of power in politics. He won easily.

As of today, only nine months into his first term in the state legislature, Micah Lasher is the early favorite to succeed his mentor, Jerry Nadler. Yet, for those who followed the Lasher–Northrup race, particularly the mailer saga, the outgoing Congressman’s signal of support in the upcoming Primary comes as no surprise. While the blessing of Nadler alone cannot guarantee victory, no institution can, it will cohere the West Side — Hoylman-Sigal, Levine, Rosenthal, Abreu — behind Lasher, one of their own.

To say Lasher, a methodical operator who has worked on dozens of campaigns over the past twenty-five years, is prepared for this moment would be an understatement.

He may need every bit of that readiness to prevail. During Lasher’s twenty-five years in local politics, let alone the past twelve months, the ground has shifted. Federal politics once took a backseat to local fiefdoms, but as Donald Trump runs roughshod over liberal institutions, voters are anxiously search for fighters, not folders. Staunch support for the Israel government was considered a pre-requisite for any Manhattan candidate, not a political albatross. Now, as the Netanyahu regime continues its “war of annihilation,” support for Palestine polls forty-percent higher than Israel among Democrats in the city with the largest Jewish population in the world. An experienced, older candidate would thrash an unknown leftist across the many silk-stocking neighborhoods of the Twelfth District. Yet, Zohran Mamdani, a Muslim democratic socialist, edged former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic Primary for Mayor.

In New York City, the age of the institution is coming to a close. The Twelfth District, a rich tapestry of culture and media, is at the center of this political cross-current. Simultaneously one of the oldest and youngest communities in the United States, much of what’s left off the local institutions — clubs, newspapers, elected officials — will be with West Side Assemblymen. But will that be enough in 2026?

A hallmark of Lasher’s career has been an ability to adapt: an acolyte of Michael Bloomberg in Zohran Mamdani’s inner circle. A principled and savvy coalition-builder? An opportunistic politician reading the tea lives? Or a lifelong Upper West Sider in-touch with the whims of his neighbors? Yet, the through line of Lasher’s career is Jerry Nadler; from mentee to potential successor. More than a quarter century after breaking onto the political scene, Micah Lasher’s dream is alive. Can he realize it?

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