Where AOC can help Zohran Mamdani

Can the insurgent who dethroned Joe Crowley help defeat Andrew Cuomo?

---

After much anticipation, the wait is over.

This morning, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Zohran Mamdani as her #1 choice to be the next Mayor of New York City.

The backing of AOC, one of the most popular Democrats in the nation, comes at a critical juncture for Mamdani, who still trails former Governor Andrew Cuomo by eight points in the lead-up to the Democratic Primary on June 24th.

“Assemblymember Mamdani has demonstrated a real ability on the ground to put together a coalition of working-class New Yorkers,” Ocasio-Cortez told The New York Times. “Even if the entire left coalesced around any one candidate, an ideological coalition is still insufficient for us to win.

We have to have a true working-class coalition.”

AOC’s endorsement was a full-circle moment for Zohran Mamdani, who first launched his campaign for State Assembly at a rally for Bernie Sanders headlined by Ocasio-Cortez in Queensbridge Park. Notably, Ocasio-Cortez did not endorse Mamdani’s insurgent bid against a relatively inoffensive, left-liberal incumbent. Nonetheless, the two have partnered frequently over the years, sharing a political base in Astoria, Queens — colloquially referred to as “The People’s Republic” for its leftist bent. Since launching his Mayoral campaign last fall, Mamdani has been compared to Ocasio-Cortez at every turn, as both: relentlessly focus on the working-class, embody social media savvy, inspire unparalleled volunteer energy, possess transcendent talent, showcase public speaking prowess, and retain a nuanced understanding of how emotion and relationships shape political outcomes. If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has had multiple mini-arcs: the unapologetic anti-establishment notes of her first term; followed by mending fences with certain segments of the Democratic establishment during the Biden years; culminating in a tumultuous 2024, which saw Ocasio-Cortez valiantly defend her colleagues from AIPAC’s encroachment (as the War in Gaza escalated), stick by the feeble Biden after a disastrous debate, and campaign hard on behalf of Kamala Harris — her (near term) political apex has come with the return of Donald Trump. Barnstorming the country alongside Bernie Sanders on the “Fight Oligarchy” tour, AOC has become a leading contender for the Democratic nomination in 2028. Many would be overshadowed by the spectre of AOC, a larger than life presence in progressive politics; but Zohran Mamdani has found a niche entirely of his own. There were a myriad of themes Mamdani could have put at the forefront of his Mayoral campaign, but he astutely chose costs-of-living — Rent Freeze, Fast & Free Buses, and Universal Childcare. Now, affordability, rather than “crime,” has become the race’s #1 issue. By any objective measure, the thirty-three year old has outworked all of his opponents and there is little doubt remaining that Mamdani’s campaign has been, by far, the best run operation of the cycle. The thirty-thousand inspired volunteers don’t hurt either. Not only is there room for two left-leaning stars in New York City (Mamdani and Ocasio-Cortez both live in Queens, less than four miles away from one another), their experiences (municipal, state, and federal) complement one another quite well.

Additionally, Ocasio-Cortez announced she was ranking City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams #2, Comptroller Brad Lander #3, former Comptroller Scott Stringer #4, and State Senator Zellnor Myrie #5.

Ocasio-Cortez’s eventual intervention (when, whom, how) in the Mayoral race roiling her backyard has been the subject of consistent debate and discussion over the past several months (including via this newsletter). For weeks, Ocasio-Cortez has (for lack of a more delicate phrase) taken shit (from all sides) for not weighing in sooner, particularly as Cuomo’s prohibitive lead has shown few signs of withering organically. According to CNN, the Congresswoman from New York’s 14th District had been encouraging the non-Cuomo candidates to develop an organized strategy against the frontrunner, an approach that has been met with “a lot of frustration, and a bunch of complaints that she doesn’t get how politics works.”

Four years ago, AOC endorsed civil rights attorney Maya Wiley, doubling her polling overnight, and propelling the progressive hopeful, confined to the single digits for months, into a surprise second place finish on Election Night. Now, at the peak of her powers, Ocasio-Cortez hopes to exert comparable, if not greater, influence on the impending outcome.

In 2021, she backed Wiley seventeen days before Primary Day; this year, she endorsed Mamdani with nineteen days remaining in the race.

With the political left staring down Mayor Andrew Cuomo, the last (and best) card has been played.

---

However, there is now a question as to whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement — perhaps the most sought after blessing in New York City Democratic politics — will ultimately matter at all.

Did she miss the window to stop Andrew Cuomo?

Much of this conjecture has taken place online — increasingly the medium where journalists, consultants, pundits, and the politically-engaged interact with one another — with spillage into left-leaning outlets, such as New York Magazine. Importantly, this discussion takes place far beyond the working-class of New York City, where the Mayoral race will be decided. Ross Barkan offered the most coherent summary of these arguments in his recent column:

“The reality for Mamdani is that he doesn’t necessarily need Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement any longer. Any diehard AOC fan knows of Mamdani and is likely preparing to vote for him. He also doesn’t need any fundraising help, having maxed out in public funds for June… AOC has shown herself to be, in this instance, overly cautious. The time to influence the election was a month or two ago, when Cuomo’s super-PAC was pounding the airwaves and none of the candidates could adequately return fire.”

In light of the stakes, this struck me as important to discuss. I’ll add two disclaimers: Barkan is not only a friend of mine, his pieces on the previous Mayoral race inspired me to start writing in the first place; I’ve only spoken at length with AOC once, but she is the reason I decided to pursue a career in New York City politics to begin with.

Let’s break it down.

---

Zohran Mamdani does need Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

This is not the AOC of yore: the freshman firebrand throwing bombs at the establishment OR the second-term lawmaker trying to soften her brand during the Biden administration. Since Donald Trump’s return to power, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who pointedly and enthusiastically campaigned alongside Kamala Harris last fall (on Election Eve, the two rallied together in Pennsylvania), has seen her popularity dramatically rise across the Democratic mainstream, to the point where she consistently polls in the top-3 in early 2028 Presidential Primary surveys. Four years ago, Ocasio-Cortez consolidated the progressive base around Maya Wiley, but did not have as much to offer in other corners of the five boroughs. Now, according to a recent Data for Progress poll, AOC leads Senator Chuck Schumer, a New York institution for several decades, by over nineteen points — with her most pronounced advantages coming among the urban working-class, the demographic most-friendly to Andrew Cuomo.

Imagine for a brief moment what the result of the New York City Mayoral race would be if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were the candidate against Cuomo. Would she win? Yes, in my estimation by between six and twelve points (I have an AD-by-AD breakdown, if you ask nicely). Consider where AOC would do well. Undoubtedly, she would crush the former Governor across the gentrifying “Commie Corridor” of Western Queens and North Brooklyn, equally dominating Brownstone neighborhoods on both sides of Prospect Park. Ocasio-Cortez would also run up the score across left-leaning, historically-Jewish neighborhoods in Manhattan, like the Upper West Side, Hudson Heights, and Inwood. The heavily-Hispanic Bronx and Upper Manhattan, where progressive insurgency traditionally stumbles, would ride-or-die with their hometown hero, particularly the Puerto Rican neighborhoods that comprise the heart of New York’s 14th Congressional District. All in all, AOC would win at least three of the five boroughs.

Next, examine the “gap” (in your head) between where Mamdani’s support is now, and compare it to that of Ocasio-Cortez. Here, is where she can most help Zohran Mamdani.

Where exactly is that?

Amongst Latinos and Liberals, Mamdani noticeably trails Cuomo. To have any chance at pulling off a historic upset, he must make significant inroads with both. Luckily for Zohran, these are two of AOC’s strongest constituencies, neatly coinciding with where the frontrunner’s support is softest.

Self-identified liberals, the dominant political strain in Manhattan below 96th Street, have fractured in the Mayoral Primary, defaulting to Andrew Cuomo after resoundingly backing Kathryn Garcia four years ago. This cohort — a mix of Bloomberg technocracy and classical liberalism, defined by relative affluence and college education — increasingly does not view AOC, also a democratic socialist, as a threat to their class interests, but as a frontline fighter against the fascist tendencies of the Trump administration. Ocasio-Cortez’s validation of Mamdani would create a permission structure for wealthy, left-of-center voters — many of whom revere her, but know little about him — to back the thirty-three year old assemblyman with fresh ideas over the scandal-scarred former Governor.

Despite trailing Andrew Cuomo by double digits, Latino voters have been one of Zohran’s best demographics, evidence that his campaign has juice outside of traditional progressive strongholds. And, while the frontrunner appeals to some of the more conservative strains in the Hispanic community, particularly amongst Evangelical Christians, Mamdani’s relentless focus on costs of living, specifically freezing the rent for all rent-stabilized tenants (the most rent-stabilized apartments, without fail, are majority-Hispanic neighborhoods in the Bronx and Upper Manhattan), has undoubtedly contributed to his steady rise. Here, Spanish-language advertising featuring AOC and Mamdani’s economic populist message, over the next nineteen days (working-class, ideologically moderate Latinos are most likely to vote on Primary Day) could significantly elevate the underdog during the final weeks.

Not for nothing, the Puerto Rican Day Parade is also this Sunday.

---

The question of her timing is far trickier. I’m on the record having said that an endorsement post-Memorial Day (four weeks until Primary Day) made sense for several reasons, including with respect to the vote schedule for the House of Representatives, in addition to providing more time to plan paid media featuring AOC and (potentially) a “Fight Oligarchy” rally during Early Voting, all while best-harnessing the inevitable earned media deluge that such an announcement would carry.

Against Andrew Cuomo, the more time one has, the better.

Undoubtedly, each passing day without an endorsement carried the risk that Cuomo would pull further away from Mamdani and company. However, the longer Ocasio-Cortez ultimately waited, the more voters would be tuned into the race when she eventually announced. This was a gamble.

Without a doubt, the specter of the 2021 Mayoral Primary has stuck with AOC. Four years ago, had she pulled the proverbial trigger in May, the progressive standard-bearer would have likely lined up behind Scott Stringer or Dianne Morales (as the Working Families Party had done), only to watch both of their campaigns implode in scandal. Ocasio-Cortez avoided this messy saga entirely by waiting until June, but by then the Wiley campaign lacked the requisite time to film a television ad.

Certainly, there was a very real possibility that Andrew Cuomo further separated himself from his moribund competition in May, rendering AOC’s endorsement too little, too late. However, Cuomo not only failed to pull away, but Zohran Mamdani cut the prohibitive favorite’s lead: ending the month of May within eight points of the former Governor. All of a sudden, Cuomo was stumbling, Mamdani surging, with AOC waiting in the wings. Could you script it any better?

Now, like a great relief pitcher in baseball, can Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez help put away Andrew Cuomo once and for all?

Where else could a collaboration between Ocasio-Cortez and Mamdani change the game over the remaining nineteen days: Television. It may not be “Dante,” the viral ad featuring Bill de Blasio’s son that swept his father into City Hall, but the bar for the two social media savvy Millennials is sky high. A truly great ad is one of the few needle-movers that remains in local politics. Andrew Cuomo’s coalition, primarily Black and Brown voters over-45, largely receive news about government and politics from broadcast television (twenty-percentage points higher than any other medium). Investing heavily in TV, with AOC — at the apex of her popularity — as surrogate and validator, is one of the best strategies to erode Cuomo’s lead.

Arguably, no Democratic politician has harnessed “new media” to the extent AOC has. Here, she and Zohran Mamdani are one in the same. Some colleagues resent the attention (look away Jessica Ramos), but the effectiveness is undeniable. If the Mayoral race has proved anything, it’s that candidates should overlook these communicative mediums at their own peril. Nonetheless, from an earned (traditional and prestige) media perspective, AOC has the power to uniquely challenge Andrew Cuomo. With one tweet, the frontrunner’s “Rose Garden” campaign from the shadows would instantly become a national story, purely because of Ocasio-Cortez’s interest.

Imagine the impact of a sustained effort, across several mediums, during the race’s final three weeks?

In the context of local politics, this soft power creates an interesting dynamic. Indeed, Ocasio-Cortez cannot whip large labor unions or marshall an army of district leaders and state committee members behind Mamdani. Nor is she frequently meddling in down-ballot affairs or trading favors with other powerful politicians. However, while her approach has shortcomings in lowkey, behind-the-scenes knife fights, she is remarkably well-suited for the high-profile, media-centric Mayoral race — where the Attention Economy supplants Institutional Influence.

Lastly, the inconvenient truth about the impactful of AOC’s endorsement is that such a question cannot be accurately evaluated until after the election. Clearly, the left’s precarious predicament — the return of Andrew Cuomo — is not her fault. Nor should Ocasio-Cortez be blamed for the fact that the Working Families Party’s Super PAC has raised only $38K (federal campaign compliance law would have likely made any effort to raise money on their behalf impossible), compared to the $10M+ for the Cuomo aligned-PAC, “Fix The City.” What is less clear to me is why, with all said power and profile, AOC kept her powder dry for months, and refrained from challenging Cuomo publicly in April and May.

But with less than three weeks remaining, none of those things can be changed. While Ocasio-Cortez “indicated that no immediate joint appearances [between her and Mamdani] were scheduled,” I don’t anticipate that she will take the next nineteen days lightly.

Ultimately, what you put into something — is what you get out of it.

---

For the past few years, the political left in New York City has, following breakthrough victories in 2018 and 2020, remained electorally stagnant. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose shocking triumph over Rep. Joe Crowley captured the imagination of a generation, was asked by activists and allies alike to do far too much: solve every problem, endorse each candidate, and warehouse all the electoral infrastructure. For several years, “the movement” would go as far as she carried it. Facing an inflection point one year ago, Zohran Mamdani understood that a high-profile Mayoral campaign was necessary to resurrect the progressive project in the five boroughs. In backing Mamdani’s underdog bid for Mayor, Ocasio-Cortez has taken an invaluable step in further building the movement she has come to embody.

Since 2018, AOC has been tasked with leading the progressive project at home and in Washington. Now, as she burnishes her national and statewide profile, Zohran Mamdani is well positioned to become the municipal leader that was always foisted onto Ocasio-Cortez.

In the next nineteen days, the progressive duo can not only reshape the political character of New York City, but the Democratic Party as a whole — together.

Tomorrow afternoon, the House of Representatives will enter recess until Monday, June 23rd.

The real fun has just begun.

---

Connect With Me:

Follow me on Twitter @MichaelLangeNYC

Email me at Michael.James.Lange@gmail.com