Another excellent piece, Michael. Just wanted to respectfully make one historical correction, in service of your overall narrative: while Jesse Jackson made "Rainbow Coalition" a household name, credit for coining it truly belongs to someone who named the original coalition from the late 60s that bears its name. That formation, led by Fred Hampton and Bob Lee, brought together BPP, Young Lords, and Young Patriots, and its name was appropriated by Jesse Jackson for his own subsequent coalition. Given the socialistic politics of both leaders in the original RC and leading forces in Zohran's electoral coalition, I find the true origin of the name to provide an even more satisfying through-line to the present.
Like you, I was surprised that Zohran didn’t win by more. I didn’t expect white outerborough support to surge like it did. But it seems like Cuomo’s negative campaign helped mobilize a reactionary electorate based on nativism.
There were many writing off the Bronx after Cuomo won the primary. Zohran consolidating union and local political support helped boost the working class black and latino vote. These voters are not as driven by ideology as much as they are about supporting the candidate who has adjacent institutional support. It’s what helped Eric Adams in the last primary.
Kudos, as usual a thoughtful analysis, campaigning and governing are different animals, after the postcoital exultation the day to day drudgery of governing. In 1989 the UFT vigorously supported the insurgent challenge to a three term incumbent. E d Lynch, Dinkins political guru urged him to be tough with the UFT, months went by, the UFT picked Gracie Mansion, radio ads, finally, a few months before the election a contract was agreed to, the UFT made no endorsement, teacher fled to Giuliani. The lesson: voters are fickle, in love one day, unfaithful the next, polyamory is common in the behavior of voters, hopefully Z has some Houdini DNA
Exactly. BdB came in with most of the same hype in 2013. Fair to say he was not beloved for long. And today's young electorate is far more into Manichean purity politics.
With regards to the East Asian vote, there are two points that I wanted to flag as food for thought:
1) Many East Asian communities (esp. older immigrants) are firmly small "c" conservatives. Often, they are immigrants from countries where communism/socialism are often not seen in the most positive light (China, Korea, but also Vietnam). While over time (and esp with the next generations) that sentiment does dampen, in a pitched election (or even as a longer campaign strategy over the years) where one of the messages being blasted is "us vs socialism", many (esp older) folks do revert back. In NYC, this is part of a longer campaign going back to Trump 1. but worked on the local/state level by folks like Sliwa and Zeldin over the years.
In many ways, it is incredibly similar to the ex-Soviet immigrant population in Sheepshead Bay/Brighton Beach or the Cuban/Venezuelan population in Florida or the Korean/Vietnamese population in California.
2) A continued weak spot among both the left and the Democratic party as a whole is it is its failure to break into linguistic media bubbles that exist outside the English centric media environment that most of us are in. Too often, outreach comes in the form "xxx language ad on Facebook" or something similar which is often not enough. An entire world of social media, radio stations, TV channels, influencers exist solely in those languages and for the most part, the left is completely MIA. Take for example social media platforms. Both the Chinese and Koreans have their own social media platforms (WeChat and KakaoTalk) with their own set of influencers, discourse, which of course leans rightward. It has been well documented that Republicans are super active on those platforms (Lee Zeldin for example was super active there in 2022), but the left for the most part MIA.
This parallels again to the situation down in Florida. One reason why the Democrats have lost ground with Latinos is that they more or less ceded the entirety of Spanish language media to the right.
" While he made pronounced inroads among working-class Black and Hispanic voters the past four months, his ceiling for improvement is even greater. The intelligentsia of Manhattan may sour on him, or rally behind a white-collar adversary in four years, but Mamdani will almost assuredly deepen his reservoir of support across the blue-collar outer boroughs; net positive arithmetic in the equation of re-election." - great insight here and one I think will likely end up being the case, even in the best-case scenario.
> the voter coalition the political left had always sought to build.
Actually the political left always wins these groups in NYC. The coalition the political left seeks to build is in Iowa, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Doing this sleight of hand where you use terms the national party is using and apply them to a borough of New York City is kind of laughable, I mean I did click and then laugh so I guess you win. But as political analysis it's fundamentally unserious. Left-wing Dem wins Brooklyn. Great, De Blasio is on line 2 with a very similar winning coalition to tell you that's nothing new!
The CUNY Graduate Center did a precinct analysis where you can filter EDs "where 10%+ of registered voters have Jewish surnames." I wasn't cherrypicking, I promise! That was the best micro-level data I have seen so far.
And no, it would not leave out the UES (which went overwhelmingly for Kamala Harris), it's the closest "filter" to see the non-Orthodox/Haredi votes. Check it out for yourself:
From a Jew with a German surname (i.e., a "Yekke") whose family's been on the UES since before WWI and whose partner is a Jew with a surname that passes for Hispanic.
Another excellent piece, Michael. Just wanted to respectfully make one historical correction, in service of your overall narrative: while Jesse Jackson made "Rainbow Coalition" a household name, credit for coining it truly belongs to someone who named the original coalition from the late 60s that bears its name. That formation, led by Fred Hampton and Bob Lee, brought together BPP, Young Lords, and Young Patriots, and its name was appropriated by Jesse Jackson for his own subsequent coalition. Given the socialistic politics of both leaders in the original RC and leading forces in Zohran's electoral coalition, I find the true origin of the name to provide an even more satisfying through-line to the present.
Like you, I was surprised that Zohran didn’t win by more. I didn’t expect white outerborough support to surge like it did. But it seems like Cuomo’s negative campaign helped mobilize a reactionary electorate based on nativism.
There were many writing off the Bronx after Cuomo won the primary. Zohran consolidating union and local political support helped boost the working class black and latino vote. These voters are not as driven by ideology as much as they are about supporting the candidate who has adjacent institutional support. It’s what helped Eric Adams in the last primary.
Kudos, as usual a thoughtful analysis, campaigning and governing are different animals, after the postcoital exultation the day to day drudgery of governing. In 1989 the UFT vigorously supported the insurgent challenge to a three term incumbent. E d Lynch, Dinkins political guru urged him to be tough with the UFT, months went by, the UFT picked Gracie Mansion, radio ads, finally, a few months before the election a contract was agreed to, the UFT made no endorsement, teacher fled to Giuliani. The lesson: voters are fickle, in love one day, unfaithful the next, polyamory is common in the behavior of voters, hopefully Z has some Houdini DNA
Exactly. BdB came in with most of the same hype in 2013. Fair to say he was not beloved for long. And today's young electorate is far more into Manichean purity politics.
"Block By Block, Baby!"
With regards to the East Asian vote, there are two points that I wanted to flag as food for thought:
1) Many East Asian communities (esp. older immigrants) are firmly small "c" conservatives. Often, they are immigrants from countries where communism/socialism are often not seen in the most positive light (China, Korea, but also Vietnam). While over time (and esp with the next generations) that sentiment does dampen, in a pitched election (or even as a longer campaign strategy over the years) where one of the messages being blasted is "us vs socialism", many (esp older) folks do revert back. In NYC, this is part of a longer campaign going back to Trump 1. but worked on the local/state level by folks like Sliwa and Zeldin over the years.
In many ways, it is incredibly similar to the ex-Soviet immigrant population in Sheepshead Bay/Brighton Beach or the Cuban/Venezuelan population in Florida or the Korean/Vietnamese population in California.
2) A continued weak spot among both the left and the Democratic party as a whole is it is its failure to break into linguistic media bubbles that exist outside the English centric media environment that most of us are in. Too often, outreach comes in the form "xxx language ad on Facebook" or something similar which is often not enough. An entire world of social media, radio stations, TV channels, influencers exist solely in those languages and for the most part, the left is completely MIA. Take for example social media platforms. Both the Chinese and Koreans have their own social media platforms (WeChat and KakaoTalk) with their own set of influencers, discourse, which of course leans rightward. It has been well documented that Republicans are super active on those platforms (Lee Zeldin for example was super active there in 2022), but the left for the most part MIA.
This parallels again to the situation down in Florida. One reason why the Democrats have lost ground with Latinos is that they more or less ceded the entirety of Spanish language media to the right.
The Times/Ozone Park anecdote is great. Looking forward to your writings on the future Mamdani administration
" While he made pronounced inroads among working-class Black and Hispanic voters the past four months, his ceiling for improvement is even greater. The intelligentsia of Manhattan may sour on him, or rally behind a white-collar adversary in four years, but Mamdani will almost assuredly deepen his reservoir of support across the blue-collar outer boroughs; net positive arithmetic in the equation of re-election." - great insight here and one I think will likely end up being the case, even in the best-case scenario.
I love you but this is so trolly
> the voter coalition the political left had always sought to build.
Actually the political left always wins these groups in NYC. The coalition the political left seeks to build is in Iowa, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Doing this sleight of hand where you use terms the national party is using and apply them to a borough of New York City is kind of laughable, I mean I did click and then laugh so I guess you win. But as political analysis it's fundamentally unserious. Left-wing Dem wins Brooklyn. Great, De Blasio is on line 2 with a very similar winning coalition to tell you that's nothing new!
"Jewish Democrats (precincts where 10%+ of registered voters have Jewish surnames, and Kamala Harris won 60%+ of the vote)"
Hmmm... That would leave out the UES as a whole where Cuomo did considerably better, no? Curious as to where this rather odd assessment comes from.
The CUNY Graduate Center did a precinct analysis where you can filter EDs "where 10%+ of registered voters have Jewish surnames." I wasn't cherrypicking, I promise! That was the best micro-level data I have seen so far.
And no, it would not leave out the UES (which went overwhelmingly for Kamala Harris), it's the closest "filter" to see the non-Orthodox/Haredi votes. Check it out for yourself:
https://www.urbanresearchmaps.org/electioncompare2025/?filters=rvjwsh&lat=40.77593&lng=-73.95804&zoom=13.03
Thanks! Fascinating.
From a Jew with a German surname (i.e., a "Yekke") whose family's been on the UES since before WWI and whose partner is a Jew with a surname that passes for Hispanic.
It's complicated.
They said this day would never come.
It's nice to witness history, but towards the future you want.