The Fall of Eric Adams & The Unprecedented Special Election for NYC Mayor

Eric Adams is Indicted, Andrew Cuomo's Career is Resurrected.

“These are bright red lines, and we allege the mayor crossed them again and again, for years. That is the only reason we are here today.”

— U.S. Attorney Damian Williams of the Southern District of New York

On Thursday morning, federal prosecutors unveiled a five-count indictment against New York City Mayor Eric Adams, charging him with bribery, conspiracy, fraud, and soliciting illegal foreign campaign donations.

Adams is the first sitting New York City Mayor to be indicted — a dubious factoid that even escaped the likes of Tammany men Jimmy Walker and William O’Dwyer, both of whom ultimately resigned. Calls for Adams to step-down, once confined to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and a small cadre of socialist and progressive lawmakers prior to the indictment, have grown considerably in the aftermath hours, with more likely on the way.

In the past week alone, Schools Chancellor David Banks, Health Commissioner Ashwin Vasan, and NYPD Commissioner Edward Caban tendered their resignations. Now, the floodgates will open — as officials, akin to passengers aboard the RMS Titanic weathering the jolt of a mid-Atlantic iceberg, will flee the administration with the urgency of those who witnessing their ship rapidly taking on water (with an alarmingly low number of lifeboats).

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries will undoubtedly pressure Adams to go quietly — at a time when the national Democrats can ill-afford a distraction emanating from New York, already the epicenter of their suburban-based fight to regain control of the House of Representatives. Vice President Kamala Harris, less than six weeks out from the Presidential Election on November 5th, will surely be asked of Adams’ fate on the campaign trail. President Joe Biden has little political impetus to give Adams the benefit of the doubt, given the Mayor’s persistent criticism of his administration’s handling of the migrant crisis. In 2010, President Barack Obama placed a call to embattled Governor David Paterson urging him to step aside, and allow the Democratic Party to unite around “popular Attorney General… Andrew Cuomo.” Could the former President, easily the Party’s most popular figure (besides his wife), covertly broker the withdrawal of a stubborn, besieged incumbent one more time?

Eric Adams, who has repeatedly scorned the political elite of the Democratic Party, has never been one to stand down. The Hell With Them — Adams might think, pointing to his strength with the working and middle-class Black voters that constitute the heart-and-soul of the Democratic base in New York City and beyond. Yet, while the Mayor could conceivably dig in, with the (false) hope of outlasting the first wave of fallout, the self-proclaimed “Biden of Brooklyn” is mortally-wounded.

Fewer than two months ago, the Democratic Party shelved an incumbent President, one who had defeated Donald Trump and easily felled token opposition in the primaries earlier this Spring, because of a single catastrophic debate performance. While Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama tactfully navigated the behind-the-scenes push to drop Biden, the media’s weeks-long autopsy of the President’s dismal performance, and every appearance that followed, ultimately sealed his fate. Adams, whose remaining allies can be traced to the atrophying Brooklyn Democratic machine, the law offices of confidante-turned-lobbyist Frank Carrone, or his curious relationship with Assembly Member Jennifer Rajkumar — has few friends left outside City Hall. No “permission structure” will be necessary for lawmakers to come out against a Mayor who was already deeply-unpopular.

However, the only elected official who truly controls the Mayor’s fate does not reside in Washington D.C., but in the state capital of Albany. Relegated to a defense crouch for much of the year following her “pause” on Congestion Pricing and public rebukes at the hands of Nancy Pelosi for New York’s poor performance in the 2022 midterms, Governor Kathy Hochul, under the power of the state constitution, retains the authority to remove the only Democratic politician who is more unpopular than she is: Eric Adams. While the City Council could convene an “Inability Committee,” the opaqueness of the City Charter makes the move unlikely. If Adams resists growing calls for his departure, and the legal situation devolves further, Hochul’s hand could be forced — the result of mounting pressure from Democratic leaders in Washington and a relentless media.

Speaking of, the press had soured on Eric Adams long ago, and while The New York Times Editorial Board took a step back from their history of issuing local endorsements, the paper of record chronicled the Mayor’s demise from beginning to end with precision, ultimately breaking the news of his indictment on Wednesday evening. Even the right-leaning New York Post, who endorsed the crime-focused Adams in the Democratic primary three years ago, has had enough of the corruption perpetually consuming the Mayor’s inner-circle. Once hailed by the national media as rising star in the Democratic Party — the ex-cop backed by a working-class coalition who made white progressives squirm — Adams will find himself besieged by the press to a degree unseen in the modern history of New York City, creating a cycle of negative feedback that ultimately dooms his prospects. Already, Adams was weak amongst this cohort — the civically-engaged and college-educated class that dominate the political landscape across wide swaths of affluent neighborhoods in Manhattan and Brooklyn. Now, his candidacy will be radioactive, tainted by the worst charge of all: corruption. 

The Mayor’s tenuous support among the city’s working-class Latino and Asian electorates, who supported his previous bid in part due to concerns about crime and policing, will only further erode now that Adams himself has been credible accused of committing crimes. His long standing allies in the Orthodox and Hasidic communities like to pick winners, and from where the author is sitting, the Mayor is anything but that. If Adams were to continue his hopeless bid, even his standing amongst the Black community, once irreproachable, would inevitably slip.

To win re-election, Eric Adams would need a miracle. His days left in City Hall are numbered.

Today, the Mayor is floundering, insinuating the charges against him are retribution for consistent criticism of the Biden Administration’s handling of the migrant crisis: “Despite our pleas, the federal government did nothing as its broken immigration policies overloaded our shelter system, with no relief – I put the people of New York before party, and politics.”

Yet, perhaps most cynically, Eric Adams has frequently invoked the legacy of the late David Dinkins — New York City’s first Black Mayor who lost a bitter re-election campaign to Republican Rudy Guliani thirty years ago — in his own defense. Nevermind the fact that Adams — at the time President of the City's black police officers association, was himself “reluctant” to endorse Dinkins because New York’s first Black Mayor declined to meet with Louis Farrakhan of the Nation of Islam, a staunch Adams ally. Adams’ ongoing effort to dispel credible questions about the fitness of his administration by stoking racial resentment, pitting New Yorkers, Black and White, against one another in an electoral ploy, is wearing thin. City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, who went to high school with Adams and represents a Southeast Queens-based district the Mayor won by sixty-eight points, rejected the argument that Adams was targeted for investigation on account of his race. Not to mention the fact that the man tasked with Adams’ case, U.S. Attorney Damian Williams of the Southern District of New York, is the first Black person to hold the coveted position.

On Thursday morning, Adams gathered alongside Black clergy at a press conference to profess his innocence. Inexplicably held outside Gracie Mansion, Adams’ last stand presser was routinely interrupted by chants of "Resign, Resign, Resign” from hecklers. As the Mayor, grinning and laughing, attempted to segue into his speech, a blaring message rendered him silent: “This is Not a Black Thing, it is a You Thing!”

Adams’ ascension was hailed as the triumph of Black New York’s political power: “I am you. After years of praying and hoping and struggling and working, we are headed to City Hall,” he proclaimed.

Mara Gay of The New York Times Editorial Board wrote, “New York’s Black Democratic base had endured a plague and marched for Black lives. They had kept the city going, along with municipal workers of all backgrounds, while wealthier New Yorkers remained safely at home. They had felt the rise in violence in their neighborhoods, and seen the resurgence of white supremacy under President Donald Trump. Their choice for mayor was Eric Adams.” Indeed, that choice was as resounding as it was widespread — from those reliant on public assistance and public housing, to working-class people with middle-class dreams, to those whose decades of hard-work had paid off with a three-bedroom apartment in Co-op City or a two-family home in Canarsie. The resonance of Eric Adams spanned from Parkchester in the Bronx to Starrett City in Brooklyn, and from Rochdale Village in Queens to Esplanade Gardens in Harlem. Even as his poll numbers stumbled over the past twelve months, the Mayor was buoyed by his popularity with Black New York, reluctant to abandon the man who “urged his supporters to respond by re-electing him to the second term that Mr. Dinkins was denied.” Today, on a dreary and overcast Thursday morning in late September, that trust was irrevocably damaged.

Eric Adams has only himself to blame.

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Were Eric Adams to resign or be forced out, in accordance with the City Charter, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams would become acting Mayor, until a Special Election could be held within 80 days of the vacancy.

The Special Election — nonpartisan, with ranked choice voting — would be unprecedented in the municipality's illustrious electoral history. There would be no party ballot lines or designations (Democratic Party, Republican Party, Working Families Party), merely self-taglines for each candidate (“Common Sense”, “Fix The MTA”, “For The People”). Name recognition, the ability to fundraise furiously to inundate the airwaves as soon as possible, and the will to drive media narratives while relentlessly amassing press coverage in a field starved for attention — will be tantamount to success.

However, the biggest development lies with the voters themselves, as instantly, the geometry of New York City’s traditional primary electorate would be turned upside down. Republicans and Independents, effectively shut out of selecting the Mayor for the past fifteen years — owed to the overwhelming Democratic voter registration advantage and an increasingly polarized electorate — would be enfranchised in a Special Election.

The Southern Shore of Staten Island, a relatively ignored region in the Democratic Primary, would suddenly possess voting power on par with Manhattan’s Upper West Side or Brooklyn’s Carroll Gardens, in turn, tilting the electoral scales to favor a moderate or conservative Democrat. In Queens alone, the shift would be seismic — Howard Beach, Breezy Point, Maspeth, Whitestone, and Glendale would all transform, overnight, into critical voting blocs capable of altering the outcome. The Hasidim and Orthodox of Borough Park, Midwood, South Williamsburg, and Far Rockaway would see their political power multiplied threefold. Not only might one see a candidate or two criss-cross Staten Island, some may dare venture into the sequestered Italian neighborhoods of the East Bronx, to pay homage to the marinas and gated-communities of Silver Beach, Edgewater Park, and Country Club that line the Eastchester Bay waterfront.

Altogether, this conservative contingent — relegated to the sidelines as Democrats crowned Bill de Blasio, Brad Lander, and Eric Adams — would represent at least one-quarter of the electorate in a Special Election.

While undoubtedly more representative of the collective will of New York City’s voters, said equation spells trouble for the progressive movement, already reeling from a series of setbacks dating back to the previous Mayoral race. Brad Lander, who historically counts his Brownstone Brooklyn base — primarily, the affluent, picturesque blocks that stretch from Park Slope to Brooklyn Heights — as among the highest turnout precincts in all the five boroughs, would see the overall influence of his core voting base decrease, whilst the electorate would be considerably expanded to encompass many voters increasingly hostile to his left-leaning positions — a double whammy indeed.

Furthermore, were his close confidante, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, elevated to City Hall — would it be in the progressive movement’s best interest for Lander to scrap his candidacy and quickly coalesce around the interim Mayor?

There’s much to consider. For one, Lander is already running for Mayor, and has the outlines of a team that could be conceivably ramped up in the coming weeks. Whereas Williams has shown little desire to run for Mayor despite consistent prodding — it is the author’s contention that had he run three years ago, he would have won — while possessing far less cash-on-hand. However, Williams has something that money, nor ambition, can buy — the capacity and history of building the multi-racial, cross-class coalitions that will be needed to defeat the stronger competition that will fill the vacuum created by Adams’ abrupt departure. Before Lander authored the white-collar blueprint to winning a citywide election, it was Williams who had delivered the left’s sole victories at this level: the first coming when the City Council Member from East Flatbush, underfunded and untested, notched 54% against Kathy Hochul in 2018, who benefited from Cuomo’s coattails and considerable financial edge; the latter being the last time New York City had a special election close to this scale, where Williams dominated the competition and ascended to the Public Advocate’s office, defeating a seventeen candidate field with one-third of the vote.

According to The New York Times, Williams “would likely run in the [special] election, which could take place by the end of the year.” If that were the case — would Zellnor Myrie, Jessica Ramos, Scott Stringer, and the aforementioned Lander agree to collectively stand down and unite against Andrew Cuomo, or simply continue their crusade into the Special Election, and potentially the Democratic Primary thereafter? The specter of Cuomo, who is almost guaranteed to run for Mayor now that Adams is compromised, will loom large over these decisions and negotiations. Williams, given his ability to tap into a base which has, at times, transcended the racial and class politics that traditionally bind electoral outcomes in New York City, may be the best-prepared elected on the left to undertake a winning campaign in a compressed, three-month timeline.

Having kept a low-profile following his decisive defeat to Kathy Hochul in the Gubernatorial Primary two years ago, a doomed effort which coincided with his wife’s cancer-diagnosis that kept him off the campaign trail, Jumaane Williams may soon be desperately needed by the progressive movement – perhaps now, more than ever before. 

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Andrew Cuomo, who spent this past Sunday lambasting “progressives” at a Presbyterian Church in Crown Heights, would be the early polling leader in a hypothetical Special Election. Cuomo, always uneasy about the prospect of challenging a Black elected, dating back to his failed 2002 campaign for Governor against Carl McCall, would not have to contend with Eric Adams, and would instantly compete for a considerable share, if not an outright majority, of the Black vote. He would frequently rail against Congestion Pricing, assail do-nothing progressives who want to “defund the police” and “abolish Israel,” side with NIMBY homeowners and vow to protect single-family zoning, while undoubtedly jabbing his successor, Governor Kathy Hochul. The Cuomo comeback, rather quickly, would adopt a conservative posture — ironically, much more Ed Koch than Mario Cuomo. According to POLITICO New York, Cuomo has already courted both Ruben Diaz Sr, a socially-conservative Pentecostal minister who previously represented the South Bronx in the State Senate, and Andy King, an ex-Council Member well known throughout middle-class Black neighborhoods in the Northeast Bronx, including Co-op City, whose expulsion from the chamber followed allegations of sexual harassment and ethical misconduct.

Republicans and Independents, while not necessarily friendly to the former Governor, could theoretically save a slot for him somewhere on their respective ballots, preferring the scandal-scarred Cuomo over any progressive rival. One peak at Cuomo’s past performance in Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Northeast Queens further bolsters the notion that the Italian from Briarwood will retain metaphorical “split-ticket” appeal. 

His raging negatives, overwhelming and abundant in nature — so exhaustive in fact, that to detail them thoroughly will require a piece of its own — are far from confined to the Department of Justice report which found Cuomo sexually harassed “at least thirteen women” or his team’s “extraordinary intervention” to “obscure” nursing home death data, scandals which pushed him out of the Governor’s mansion three years ago. In fact, Cuomo’s own close aides have also faced indictments, and those hoping for a competent administration free of corruption will be reminded of the Buffalo Billions and the ex-Governor’s disastrous micro-management of the MTA. However, the compressed timeline of the Special Election could lend itself to decreasing the electoral impact of these scandals — a fact the former Governor knows all too well: “Mr. Cuomo would likely prefer to run in a special election with a truncated timeline, where he could rely on name recognition and avoid months of additional scrutiny.” (The New York Times)

With an iron-clad grip on New York State, Cuomo never paid the price at the ballot box for these transgressions, facing spirited, but ultimately capped challenges from both Zephyr Teachout and Cynthia Nixon. In fact, Cuomo has experienced little beyond the privileges of incumbency or the deference traditionally paid to a decided frontrunner – namely, the overwhelming financial, labor, and press support – for the past two decades. His last truly competitive campaign came in 2002, when Cuomo, leading comfortably in the Democratic Primary, imploded following what many perceived as grossly insensitive comments with respect to Republican Governor George Pataki’s role in the aftermath of September 11th. Can Cuomo, prone to the occasional slip of the tongue, hold onto his lead for ninety days, amidst a coordinated assault from the rest of the field?

But where would a prospective Jumaane Williams vs. Andrew Cuomo matchup leave the rest of the candidates — many of whom have already declared? Jessica Ramos, the Chair of Labor in the State Senate, would surely have an easier time courting unions for key endorsements. However, the collective influence of the “Latino Vote” in New York City — from the burgeoning-Dominican population along the hilly streets of University Heights to the Puerto Rican middle-class of Clason Point — is already underrepresented in the Democratic Primary (~approximately one-fifth of the citywide electorate) despite constituting the second-largest racial group in all the five boroughs. Furthermore, majority-Hispanic neighborhoods — already, far from a political monolith — would see their voting power diluted in a Special Election, whose electorate bears a close resemblance to that of a General Election. Case and point, Ramos’ 13th Senate District at the heart of Queens County — which spans the ethnic and ideological polygot of Jackson Heights, the Black middle-class of East Elmhurst and Lefrak City, and the spanish-speaking blocks of Corona home to over one-hundred thousand Latin American immigrants – had the second-lowest voter turnout of any Senate district in New York City, in the 2022 General Election. In order to become both the first woman and Latina to be elected Mayor, Ramos will have to significantly expand her coalition beyond the city’s Hispanic enclaves – quickly. 

While Zellnor Myrie’s Brooklyn-based district fared considerably better with respect to voter turnout (89K vs 36K), the Senator’s odds of ultimate victory appear as muddied as ever. With the largest cash advantage of anyone in the field, Myrie will be compelled to remain in battle, but his path to consolidating Black Brooklyn has arguably become more difficult, as, rather than facing Adams, who would be hemorrhaging support and goodwill by the day, Myrie would have to contend with both Williams and Cuomo, no strangers themselves to winning large majorities of Brooklyn’s Black voters — from low-income African-American tenants in Brownsville and East New York to middle-class Caribbean families in East Flatbush and Flatlands. If The New York Times Editorial Board does not reconsider their ill-timed decision to suspend the practice of making endorsements in city and state races, it will be extremely difficult for Ramos and Myrie, with comparably lower name recognition than the other rumored candidates, to break out from the pack.

Who else may consider an entrance? City Council Minority Leader Joe Borelli of Staten Island has telegraphed his desire to run if Adams were forced to step aside. Borelli, while a consistent supporter of former President Donald Trump, is more in the mold of Mike Lawler than Curtis Sliwa, and has a conceivable path to winning disaffected moderate Democrats and right-leaning Independents. After all, Republican Eric Ulrich, ironically another indicted Adams appointee, captured nineteen-percent of the citywide vote in the previous non-partisan special election, finishing comfortably in second place, seven-points clear of his closest rival.

However, Borelli, or any Republican for that matter, would be hard pressed to win a citywide election in today’s age. While the Staten Island-native would easily capture his home borough, with an electoral ceiling that could peak at a top-three finish, the GOP Leader would struggle mightily in the Democrat-heavy boroughs of Manhattan, Brooklyn and the Bronx — owed to the polarization that has cascaded into local politics during the Trump Era. The coalitions of Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Guliani – Upper East Side WASPs, Maspeth Irish, Greenpoint Polish, Astoria Greeks, Bensonhurst Italians – that linked both Manhattan and Staten Island, the multi-generational white ethnic middle-class and the new-moneyed affluent of the urban core, are largely a relic of the past.

However, this coalition could be tapped one final time to the tune of citywide victory.

Already, the likes of Brad Lander, Zellnor Myrie, Jessica Ramos, and Scott Stringer have attempted to downplay their “progressive” roots, while eschewing “labels” in favor of touting their management chops, attempting to project an aura of competence. In many respects, they are each trying to emulate the candidacy of one Kathryn Garcia, the former Sanitation Commissioner who came within eight-thousand votes of defeating Adams in the Democratic Primary. Thus far on the sidelines, Garcia could be compelled to run, and would be wise to seriously consider the opportunity. If her opponents are trying to be her — after all, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery — then, why should she not run for Mayor?

The peripherals of The Special favor Garcia — namely, her robust ranked-choice-voting appeal, which could theoretically span the spectrum of Manhattan’s Upper West Side, Brooklyn’s Carroll Gardens, and Staten Island’s Great Kills. Liberals, Republicans, and Independents alike could see her as a non-partisan manager capable of restoring trust in municipal government — driven by competence, rather than ideology, amidst an era of fervent polarization — at a time when belief in institutions remains at an all-time low. With moderates and conservatives, Garcia could outflank the scandal-scarred and polarizing Cuomo (so long as the latter fails to draw attention to Garcia’s desire to upzone their low-density neighborhoods), whereas in the affluent precincts of Manhattan and Brooklyn, Garcia’s experience in city and state government and legacy as a The New York Times endorsed candidate, could give her the edge over Williams, whose standing amongst this cohort has diminished the past several years. 

Essentially, Garcia would be tasked with assembling a new-age, almost entirely white coalition, in the mold of former Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg, that could out-vote the multi-racial, working and middle-class anchored in the farthest reaches of the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn.

Over the next several months, New York City will find itself at a political crossroads, navigating a scenario without equal in the municipality’s storied history. This epic clash will deepen divides, expose fault lines, pit friend against foe, and chart the course of politics throughout the five boroughs, not just for the ensuing term, but for the decades thereafter. As Ross Barkan said, “whatever happens next, there will simply be no precedent.”

Buckle up.

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