Predicting Every Block of the 2025 NYC Mayoral Election
Spoiler Alert: Zohran Mamdani is going to win
From start to finish, the campaign for New York City Mayor, pitting Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani against former Governor Andrew Cuomo, has been scintillating and suspenseful. But tomorrow night, this bittersweet election, spanning more than twelve months, will come to an end. While not as climactic as the Democratic Primary, a come-from-behind upset of epic proportions, the General Election is nonetheless on course for historic voter turnout, the highest in fifty-six years.
With Zohran Mamdani’s victory all but assured, the real drama lies in the details.
Will Mamdani crack 50%? Can the first major Muslim candidate for mayor win back the city’s working-class Hispanic and Asian communities that swung dramatically towards Donald Trump last November? How many Republican voters can Andrew Cuomo peel away from GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa? And will the Black electorate, older and historically loyal to Cuomo, shift to Mamdani, the Democratic nominee?
Thus, in an ode to the infinite nuance of New York City’s mosaic, I have predicted the results, BLOCK by BLOCK.
2,000,000+ Votes
120,000+ City Blocks
4,000+ Election Districts
1,212 Polling Sites
350 Neighborhoods
51 City Council Seats
5 Boroughs
3 Candidates
1 Prediction
Without further ado, let’s begin!
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THE BRONX
On the banks of the Hudson River rests the Riverdale section of the Northwest Bronx. Adjacent to the water, homes routinely cost millions, while the atmosphere bears a closer resemblance to Westchester County, than the rest of the borough. Here, Cuomo will do well, particularly among Orthodox Jews in the lush Fieldston enclave. Mamdani, in turn, will perform better inland, closer to Van Cortlandt Park; a mix of apartments and modest single family homes, more middle class and culturally diverse.
Woodlawn, a historically-Irish community (bordered by Westchester County, Van Cortlandt Park, Woodlawn Cemetery, and the Bronx River Parkway), should be close between Mamdani and Sliwa (although Cuomo, on account of the older white ethnic population, remains viable here, too). A bit south, on both sides of the Major Deegan Expressway, Mamdani is poised to perform well among the Hispanic working-class of Kingsbridge, and the middle-class of Van Cortlandt Village and Kingsbridge Heights, building upon his strong showing in the Democratic Primary. Across the Jerome Park Reservoir, the Bronx Science alum should continue to dominate in Norwood, a neighborhood of hospital workers and civil servants at the end of the #4 train, home to a growing South Asian and Muslim population. I also expect Mamdani to win Bedford Park comfortably, along with the blocks adjacent to Fordham University. College students, having missed the Democratic Primary on account of summer break, are back in school for the fall semester, and should give Mamdani a notable boost in Fordham and Morningside Heights.
South of the Cross Bronx Expressway, Mamdani and Cuomo trade precincts, while Sliwa remains a non-factor. In the bluffs of Highbridge, Cuomo holds onto support from older Black and Hispanic Democrats (many of whom live in public housing); whereas on the comparably low-income blocks of Morrisania and East Tremont, adjacent to Crotona Park, where the majority of the housing stock is either rent-stabilized or subsidized with vouchers, Mamdani fares better. In Mott Haven, the southernmost neighborhood of the South Bronx, amidst the early stages of gentrification, I expect Mamdani to do well, as is the case for the precincts adjacent to Saint Mary’s Park (where Bernie Sanders held a Presidential rally in 2016) and the Dawson Street historic district in Longwood. Across the Bruckner Expressway, in the industrial, working-class peninsula of Hunts Point, Mamdani and Cuomo should play to a draw. Across the South Bronx, I expect voter participation to continue to decline, a consistent trend since 2016. Were Mamdani to rout Cuomo here, amongst the lowest-income blocks in the United States, which dramatically shifted to the right over the past decade, countless narratives would be shattered in real time.
Across the Bronx River, in Soundview and Castle Hill, Cuomo holds onto a handful of HDFC co-ops and public housing developments, but Mamdani gains everywhere else. On the middle-class peninsula of Clason Point, colloquially referred to as “Little Puerto Rico,” complete with waterfront condominiums, townhouses, and two influential homeowner’s associations, I expect Mamdani to win a plurality. However, north of the Cross Bronx Expressway, those pluralities become majorities (and supermajorities) in Parkchester, a planned community of 171 apartment buildings (affixed with beautiful Terracotta statues on their exterior, between seven and thirteen stories tall), home to thousands of African, South American, Bangladeshi, and Puerto Rican immigrants. Once “Whites Only,” Parkchester has become a remarkable reflection of New York City’s mosaic, a place where working class people, whose doors open at midnight, can harbor middle-class dreams. Half a mile away in Westchester Square, home to an even larger Bangladeshi Muslim population, Mamdani will run-up-the-score, as he did in the Primary. On one block in particular, where almost 40% of voters cast their ballots for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Donald Trump last November, Mamdani has a chance to eclipse 80% of the vote (Kamala Harris limped to 60%).
On the other side of the (freight) tracks, the heart of historically-Italian Morris Park promises to be a red reprieve in an otherwise blue borough, surrounded by Mamdani blue in working-class Van Nest (Yemeni immigrants) and Allerton (Puerto Ricans and Dominicans). Farther north, The Black Belt of the Northeast Bronx, once represented in Congress by Jamaal Bowman, begins. Majority African American and Afro Caribbean, the area straddles between working and middle class, with an almost identical number of renters and homeowners. The oldest precincts, such as the Edenwald houses, stick with Cuomo, albeit to a lesser extent; while the younger, bluer blocks of Wakefield and Williamsbridge shift to Mamdani. Across I-95 lies Co-op City, the world’s largest NORC (naturally occurring retirement community), whose electorate is two-thirds Black and one-third Hispanic. In the Democratic Primary, Cuomo dominated Mamdani here, winning by 50%. However, as Mamdani has steadily gained ground among older Black and Hispanic voters, I expect the margin will be much closer this time around, with Cuomo earning majorities from the development’s two senior centers (along with several pluralities elsewhere), while Mamdani performs better in the more Puerto Rican precincts.
I predict Pelham Bay, a vestige of the white working-class at the terminus of the #6 train, to break for Mamdani, albeit narrowly. East Tremont Avenue, which runs south from Pelham Bay through Throggs Neck, acts as the de-facto line of political demarcation: with middle-aged, working-class two family homeowners to the west supporting Mamdani; while their older, white ethnic counterparts to the east back Sliwa (and Cuomo). In both Country Club and Throggs Neck, I believe Cuomo will dent Sliwa’s margins among Italian American homeowners, limiting the Republican nominee to pluralities, not majorities. The two Sliwa majority precincts are both gated communities: Edgewater Park and Silver Beach, the most GOP-friendly blocks of the Bronx. I expect the Seaside Swing State of City Island, closely contested by all three candidates, to be a narrow Sliwa plurality, with Mamdani finishing a close second. Throughout the many white ethnic (and Republican-leaning) enclaves of the East Bronx, Sliwa should also receive a bump from the local City Council Member, Kristy Marmorato, who I expect to comfortably win re-election.
Bronx Prediction: Mamdani 50%, Cuomo 39%, Sliwa 10%
MANHATTAN
Along the Upper East Side’s Capitalist Corridor, from Park to Fifth Avenue, the wealthiest and oldest precincts in the nation, resistance to the thirty-four year old democratic socialist will be pronounced. The same can be said for tony Sutton Place, Cuomo’s temporary home during the campaign, in addition to Battery Park City, East End Avenue, Lincoln Square, and pockets of Riverside Drive on the Upper West Side. Here, where The Free Press outranks The New York Times, expect both the Democratic nominee, a pro-Palestinian socialist committed to raising taxes on the wealthy, and the Republican nominee, an outer borough populist who frequently rails against the billionaire class, to struggle for votes. Amongst these old, educated, and avowedly zionist billion-dollar blocks, Mamdani hysteria has reached a fever pitch.
Yet, I expect everywhere else to be a sea of blue, the only question is what shade?
Cuomo’s working-class support will keep him afloat in East Harlem and corners of Washington Heights, but only enough to “limit” Mamdani to pluralities and majorities. Across Harlem and Hamilton Heights — gentrifying, relatively young, staunchly Democratic — I expect Mamdani to run up the score, building on his twenty five point margin in the Primary. Throughout Hudson Heights and the Park Terrace historic district, Cuomo, the scandal-scarred former Governor running as an Independent, will be bludgeoned by progressive, upper-middle class cooperators. Mamdani will even hold his own in the Yorkville section of the Upper East Side, the young (and increasingly hip), renter-majority counter to the neighborhood’s old-moneyed elite. In Hell’s Kitchen and the East Village, neighborhoods I have deemed part of The Commie Corridor Jr, Mamdani will assuredly run-up-the-score, as he did four months prior. While Cuomo can temper Mamdani’s margins in the West Village and TriBeca, the former Governor lacks avenues to build majorities of his own, absent the Upper East and Upper West Side.
One year after the election of Donald Trump, Manhattan’s predominantly white-collar electorate will be fired up and motivated to Vote Blue No Matter, inevitably aiding Mamdani, the Democratic nominee. In the Primary, Mamdani won Manhattan by 11%. Expect that number to grow, perhaps significantly.
Manhattan Prediction: Mamdani 56%, Cuomo 40%, Sliwa 4%
STATEN ISLAND
Across the racially diverse and working-class North Shore of Staten Island, one would never know that The Forgotten Borough routinely delivers more than two-thirds of its votes to Republicans each November.
Here, expect Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani to win the majority of most precincts, from gentrifying Tompkinsville to immigrant-heavy Port Richmond, in addition to working-class Black enclaves such as Mariner’s Harbor and Clifton. Mamdani will also excel at bringing out the North Shore’s growing Muslim and Arab community, and will likely outperform Kamala Harris across a handful of precincts.
The Staten Island Expressway splits the borough politically, between the bluer North Shore, a diverse polyglot of renters; and the redder Southern and Eastern Shores: Italian, union-dense, and homeowner-heavy. Across mid-Island, I expect Sliwa to perform well in middle-class Castleton Corners and the wealthier Todt Hill enclave, while Cuomo wins the Orthodox of Willowbrook. Some neighborhoods along the Eastern Shore, such as Dongan Hills and Arrochar (whose electorates are two-thirds White, one-third Hispanic & Asian), have the chance to be competitive between all three candidates. Farther south, I was conservative with my prediction, limiting Sliwa to pluralities along most of the Eastern Shore, communities where other Republicans have coasted to majorities. Yet, I have also been generous to the GOP nominee, as Cuomo wins only a handful of precincts outright, with Sliwa even approaching supermajority territory in Tottenville and Prince’s Bay. However, my least confident prediction point rests with Sliwa’s performance among white ethnic Republicans and Independents, specifically Italian Americans. Were Sliwa, consistently painted as a spoiler, to see his support collapse, Cuomo would stand to benefit handsomely in places like Staten Island, the most Italian county in the United States.
Brigid Bergin from Gothamist published an excellent article exploring this question about Staten Island’s southern shore, the most Republican-leaning state house district in the entire northeast. Here, turnout is among the highest of anywhere in New York City, only eclipsed by Brownstone Brooklyn. How many — given the choice of a non-viable Republican gadfly, a disgraced former Governor embodying the Democratic establishment’s old guard, and an unabashed democratic socialist — will simply stay home?
Staten Island Prediction: Mamdani 25%, Cuomo 37%, Sliwa 38%
BROOKLYN
As the results pour in, you will be able to see The Commie Corridor from space.
From Greenpoint, once the Polish capital of New York, to Sunset Park, a gentrifying Mexican and Puerto Rican community adjacent to Greenwood Cemetery, Mamdani will win a supermajority of the vote. For miles, the Democratic nominee will not lose a single precinct, save for the Satmar Hasidim of South Williamsburg (more on them later), netting several hundreds of votes per block. At the end of the R train, Bay Ridge — once the only neighborhood outside of Staten Island to vote for Barry Goldwater over Lyndon Johnson — is expected to decisively support Mamdani. Across upper-class Brownstone Brooklyn (Carroll Gardens, Park Slope, Prospect Heights) where the proverbial No Kings Marchers (90-10: Harris vs. Trump) reign, the fresh-faced and dynamic Mamdani will clobber the listless and scandal-scarred Cuomo, amidst a deluge of blue wave voter turnout. Farther into Central Brooklyn, Mamdani’s pronounced advantage among younger voters, combined with the loyalty of Black voters to the Democratic Party, will carry him to significant majorities in Crown Heights, Flatbush, and Bedford-Stuyvesant; the bluest neighborhoods in New York City. As was the case in the Bronx, I expect Brooklyn’s African American and Afro Caribbean neighborhoods to split their votes between Mamdani and Cuomo, along the lines of age, tilting slightly towards the Democratic nominee. Once more, were Mamdani to consolidate support across middle-class Canarsie, working-class East Flatbush, and low-income Brownsville, he would be on pace for 60%+ in Kings County, the most vote-rich of all five boroughs.
While some leadership of the powerful anti-zionist Satmar Hasidim in South Williamsburg have declined to make an endorsement, sending a letter to the community protesting the “smears against Mamdani,” (despite an eleventh hour plea from both Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams), I expect the rank-and-file to still support either Cuomo or Sliwa. Amongst other Orthodox and Hasidic sects, in Midwood and Borough Park (and Crown Heights), I anticipate Cuomo’s margins to be even more pronounced. Along Ocean Parkway, home to the thousands of Sephardic Jews, expect Cuomo to earn a supermajority of support.
Across Southern Brooklyn’s mosaic, each candidate will find pockets of support. For Curtis Sliwa, the blood red blocks (Trump 80%+) of Russian-heavy Manhattan Beach, as well as Luna Park Towers and Trump Village (built by the President’s father) in nearby Coney Island, should serve as a bulwark against some of Cuomo’s late gains. Sheepshead Bay, reliably Republican, predominantly Russian and Chinese, should also be friendly to the GOP nominee; ditto for Marine Park, Gerritsen Beach, and Mill Basin, white ethnic waterfront communities (mostly Italian) that serve as time capsules to an older era. Andrew Cuomo should be able to peel away some votes here, particularly from immigrants from the former Soviet Union, as evidenced by Republican Council Member Inna Vernikov’s endorsement of the former Governor over the weekend. Mamdani, in turn, should continue building support among Brighton Beach’s emerging Pakistani Muslim population, partially offsetting the neighborhood’s heavy Republican lean. In Coney Island, the Democratic nominee should find solace among the Mexican working-class and local public housing residents. Across Gravesend Bay, I am eagerly anticipating the results of Bath Beach and Bensonhurst, Italian and Asian neighborhoods which Donald Trump won with more than 60% of the vote. Four years ago, Curtis Sliwa shocked the Democratic establishment by crushing Eric Adams here, foreshadowing the rightward realignment of the Chinese working and middle class. I consider both genuine Swing States, where each candidate has a chance. As of now, I expect both neighborhoods to split, block by block, between Mamdani and Sliwa (in neighboring Sunset Park East, Mamdani should lead, with Sliwa ahead in Dyker Heights). For Zohran Mamdani, the overlooked whims of the Chinese working-class will be one of many tests on Tuesday. Can he outrun Kamala Harris? I wouldn’t rule it out.
Brooklyn Prediction: Mamdani 59%, Cuomo 30%, Sliwa 10%
QUEENS
We end where it all began: The World’s Borough.
“The People’s Republic of Astoria,” the heart and soul of The Commie Corridor, will inevitably turn out in large numbers to support their State Assemblyman, Zohran Mamdani. As will neighboring Long Island City and Sunnyside, a trinity of once white ethnic, now gentrifying neighborhoods that have helped remake New York City politics since 2018. Astoria Heights, the neighborhood’s last enclave of Greek homeowners, which seesaws between Democrats and Republicans in midterm and Presidential elections, should be an interesting battleground between the three leading candidates. The Commie Corridor, and Mamdani’s dominance, will extend farther east into Filipino and Bangladeshi Woodside and the multi-ethnic, immigrant polyglot of Jackson Heights (where 200+ languages are spoken), the site of Mamdani recent night workers press conference. In the civilly-engaged Historic District, Mamdani will crush Cuomo among older progressive white voters. Farther south, buried between cemeteries and expressways, I expect Sliwa to hold onto historically-Irish Maspeth and historically-Polish and German Middle Village, while Mamdani annihilates the competition in Ridgewood along the Brooklyn border.
Both Chinatowns in Queens, Elmhurst and Flushing, are enclaves where Mamdani will expand his head-to-head lead versus Cuomo. Flushing, in particular, should be a fascinating battleground between Mamdani and Sliwa, whereas Cuomo will almost assuredly finish a distant third. College Point, a nearby peninsula of working-and-middle-class Chinese and Hispanic immigrants, won decisively by Donald Trump last November, has a strong chance of being retaken by Mamdani. The incredible influence of South Asian voters, activated like never before through Mamdani’s campaign, can be seen along the dark blue of Hillside Avenue, which stretches from South Richmond Hill to Glen Oaks. One year ago, this corridor experienced one of the most pronounced rightward shifts in the nation. In the wake of Trump’s victory, Mamdani’s breakout moment as a little known candidate for mayor came from talking to voters here, listening to their concerns. Since then, the democratic socialist has worked tirelessly to bring those communities back into the Democratic Party tent with an affirmative, costs-of-living focused agenda. Tomorrow night, at the epicenter of the World’s Borough, Mamdani is poised to do just that.
In the older suburban neighborhoods across northeast Queens, Cuomo and Sliwa will battle for votes. Sliwa should hold MAGA-friendly Whitestone and build off his past Asian inroads across Linden Hill (home to conservative Chinese homeowners) and Bayside (the Korean middle-class); while the former Governor coalesces older, white Democrats in Bay Terrace, Douglaston, and Little Neck, in addition to running-up-the-score among Orthodox Jews in Fresh Meadows and Kew Gardens Hills.
Southeast Queens, the heart of the city’s Black middle-class, should be more amenable to Mamdani than in the Democratic Primary, where the well-known Cuomo easily outpaced his fresh-faced opponent. Here, I expect Mamdani to do best in-and-around Queens Village and Jamaica, which, in addition to their large Black populations, have growing South Asian communities; while struggling the most (a relative term) in places like Rochdale Village and Springfield Gardens, among the oldest developments in the city. If Mamdani, the Democratic nominee among the bluest neighborhoods in the United States, thrashes Cuomo among Black voters in Queens, a mandate will be inevitable.
Along the Rockaway Peninsula, from west to east, Sliwa should win the Republican stronghold of Breezy Point, a gated community of Irish civil servants and retirees, and neighboring Belle Harbor, both of whom delivered 70%+ of their votes to Donald Trump (expect Broad Channel and Howard Beach, fellow A train peninsulas, to follow suit). Rockaway Park, once known as the “Irish Riviera,” has the contours of a Swing State, split between Sliwa, Cuomo, and Mamdani. Farther east, in Arverne and Edgemere, the character of the peninsula changes, becoming more working-class and racially-diverse, to Mamdani’s benefit as the Democratic nominee. At the edge of the peninsula, bordering Nassau County, I anticipate the local Orthodox population of Bayswater and Far Rockaway will bloc vote for Cuomo.
Fittingly, I wanted to conclude with Corona, a working poor neighborhood of immigrants and non-English speakers, in the shadow of the #7 train. There is no place, over the last decade, where the Democratic Party has hemorrhaged more support, taken voters so consistently for granted, and failed so catastrophically. The people of Corona are The Forgotten People to many across the media class: ignored unless given a reason to care. Last November, Donald Trump won a majority of the vote in precincts that went for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by more than 90%. The political establishment took notice, as did the national press, at least for a couple months. Now, especially around election season, we hear little about the plight of Corona; perhaps because this immigrant enclave, home to tens of thousands of non-citizens, has relatively few votes to contribute. Their fears of prostitution, ICE raids, and higher costs have not receded, but the attention has. Perhaps it is wishful thinking to say that Zohran Mamdani will do well here, that his economic message and I’m Fighting for You ethos speaks to the anxieties and fears pulsing through this oft-overlooked community. Everyone always wants the perfect ending. Maybe this is it.
Queens Prediction: Mamdani 49%, Cuomo 34%, Sliwa 16%
FINAL PREDICTION
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AP News, calling at 9:30 PM, in a shocking upset, with a +20 margin, it’s….Michael Lange for greatest pundit of 2025 ⁉️⁉️⁉️
When you said you were doing a block-by-block analysis yesterday, I thought it was a bit. Kudos as always! NYC political junkies are lucky to be living in the Michael Lange era.