Districts, Data, & Demographics: A Comprehensive Look at New York City's Congressional Redistricting

A look into the electoral data and demographic shifts behind New York City's newly re-drawn congressional districts featuring a hot take on NY-11's competitive Democratic Primary

The seeds for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s monumental upset were planted during the redistricting changes of 2012. Incumbent Joe Crowley, a white Irishman from Woodside who never learned Spanish throughout his twenty years in office, was drawn into a majority Hispanic district. Crowley, who had never faced a competitive primary before, would have to wait another six years before even being challenged.

In 2018, a young woman from Parkchester did just that. The rest is history.

This time around, the New York State legislature, led by a Democratic supermajority no longer held hostage by State Senate Republicans, gerrymandered a 22D-4R map from the previous 19D-8R map - with the hopes of helping the national party stave off losses in the House during what promises to be a difficult midterm cycle.

At the local level, amidst the wave of leftist primary challenges that have consumed City politics over the past four years, coupled with Republican gains in East Queens, Southern Brooklyn, and Staten Island - protecting Democratic incumbents, from all sides, was of the highest order. Much of that ethos is borne out with these new maps, yet it is still important we review how the lines have changed, and how that might alter city politics into the future.

Combining past election data with demographical shifts helps paint a picture of the present and future of each new respective district.

To help estimate ideological support for incumbents, challengers, and prospective future candidates, I focused on past electoral data from the 2021 Mayoral Primary, the 2018 Governor Primary, and the 2018 Lieutenant Governor Primary.

For the 2021 Mayoral Primary, I used data from the sixth round of ranked choice voting - thus narrowing and coalescing the field to just include Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Kathryn Garcia, and Andrew Yang. 

While these candidates' respective vote shares are not perfect proxies for how any particular congressional candidate will perform, I believe they were apt ideological parallels that made drawing inferences on voter preference easier. This was the template I followed to draw such comparisons:

Eric Adams - A moderate, law and order style candidate who is deeply rooted in the City’s working class communities. This candidate is well versed with insider politics, courts big unions effectively, and is looked upon favorably by the county organizations. A candidate in this mold will be strongest in the outer boroughs, particularly with Black, Hispanic, and Orthodox Jewish voters.

Maya Wiley - A clear progressive whose strength rests with younger, professional class voters in gentrifying neighborhoods in North Brooklyn and Western Queens. This candidate would be the favorite amongst activists and left-leaning nonprofits, in addition to more progressive labor unions, like 1199 SEIU and NYSNA.

Kathryn Garcia - A technocrat candidate with managerial experience that appeals mostly to the City’s highest earners, concentrated in Brownstone Brooklyn and Manhattan voters south of 96th street. This candidate can combine support amongst older white liberals, who frequent The New York Times, with more moderate outer borough white ethnics. 

Andrew Yang - An Asian American candidate running in the moderate lane. Most similar to the Eric Adams-proxy, except with a slightly different coalition - performing better amongst Asian, Orthodox Jews, and ethnic whites, while struggling more with the City’s Black and Hispanic working class.

Additionally, I have included data from both the Andrew Cuomo/Cynthia Nixon Gubernatorial Primary and the Kathy Hochul/Jumaane Williams Lieutenant Governor race. I think these data points are less reliable in terms of finding the district’s ideological median, but I still believe they are important. While Cuomo was a juggernaut who won every congressional district in the city, Nixon’s strongest neighborhoods have only migrated leftward in recent years. On the contrary, while Jumaane Williams did quite well at the time, uniting progressives in North Brooklyn and Western Queens with Central Brooklyn’s base of Black voters, Hochul was completely unknown downstate, a far cry from today. If they rematched right now, the results would likely change significantly.

For two of the districts I have also included general election data, which suggests a rightward shift at the City level. I believe City general elections in odd-years skew right, so I am skeptical that such results, particularly in NY-6, will drastically alter outcomes of even-year congressional races, but they are still noteworthy and should be factored into any analysis.

Without further adieu, let’s begin.

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Special Thank You to those in the Twitterverse for help on this piece, especially @Thorongil16, @cinyc9, and @umichvoter for sharing their data and maps.

All other election data and maps comes from either atlasizer.com or Dave’s Redistricting - which is my personal go to for all NYC election data and maps.

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NY-5 - Gregory Meeks

Demographics: White 11.2%(+1.2) Hispanic 19.1%(-0.5) Black 50.4%(-0.3) Asian 17.2%(-0.3)

Editor’s Note: Demographic changes between the old district and the new district are highlighted in parentheses

2021 Mayoral Primary - Adams 63% Wiley 19% Yang 10% Garcia 8% (Adams+44)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 86% Nixon 14% (Cuomo+72)

2018 LG Primary - Hochul 54% Williams 46% (Hochul+8)

Chair of the Queens Democratic Party, Meeks is attempting to avoid the fate that beset his predecessor, Joe Crowley. While he may lack the bully pulpit of the former King of Queens, Meeks is much better positioned to fend off a challenger, from the left or right. As long as Meeks delivers for his steady base of middle class African American homeowners in Southeast Queens, his standing should remain secure. While his district remained relatively unchanged, Meeks added the predominantly white, more conservative neighborhood of Howard Beach on the district’s west side. Looking ahead, Meeks’ seat could very well change hands before the next redistricting cycle, although likely from retirement, given his age (68), rather than via primary ouster like the former Queens County Boss.

Two big names to keep your eye on for Meeks’ seat down the line are City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams and Queens Borough President Donovan Richards. Although State Senator James Sanders Jr., who once flirted with the prospect of challenging Meeks in 2016, could be a wildcard entrant into the race.

NY-6 - Grace Meng

Demographics: White 29.8%(+0.1) Hispanic 19.4%(-0.3) Black 5.2%(-0.3) Asian 46.0%(+0.6)

2021 Mayoral General - Sliwa 48% Adams 47% (Sliwa+1)

2020 Presidential - Biden 61% Trump 37% (Biden+24)

2017 Mayoral General - Malliotakis 48% De Blasio 46% (Malliotakis+2)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Yang 36% Garcia 24% Wiley 23% Adams 17% (Yang+12)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 70% Nixon 30% (Cuomo+30)

2018 LG Primary - Hochul 61% Williams 39% (Hochul+22)

Just like her Queens counterpart, Grace Meng’s district was also relatively unchanged - save for minor alterations: picking up a few blocks in Woodside, gaining Clearview Park to the Northeast, and losing some of Glendale to Nydia Velázquez. However, Meng’s district remains quite intriguing given how it has trended to the right in City elections. In the past two Mayoral campaigns, both Nicole Malliotakis and Curtis Sliwa have won Meng’s new congressional district. On the surface, such a prognosis might seem alarming, but much of that poor performance can be attributed to hyperlocal factors - such as lackluster general election campaigns from Bill de Blasio and Eric Adams, coupled with backlash directed at Democrat’s attempts to amend the city’s gifted and talented public school programs, in addition to the SHSAT. It remains highly unlikely that the GOP base in Queens could nominate a semi-serious candidate capable of keeping pace with Meng’s fundraising and ties to the community. The first Asian American elected to Congress in New York state history, Meng is well-positioned to retain her seat over the next decade. 

NY-7 - Nydia Velázquez

Demographics: White 34.8%(+3.7) Hispanic 36.6%(-1.0) Black 16.0%(+3.6) Asian 14.3%(-6.7)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Wiley 35% Adams 24% Garcia 24% Yang 17% (Wiley+11)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 54% Nixon 46% (Cuomo+8)

2018 LG Primary - Williams 62% Hochul 38% (Williams+24)

As part of the gerrymander to swing NY-11 from R+10 to D+9, New York’s 7th Congressional district lost Sunset Park, Gowanus, and Park Slope. The loss of Sunset Park in particular has become a flashpoint in the redistricting process. When the district was drawn nearly thirty years ago, it sought to link communities from Sunset Park to the Lower East Side to Bushwick, creating a Hispanic majority, while uniting Brooklyn and Manhattan’s Chinatowns - all of which have since been served by Rep. Nydia Velázquez. While the district’s boundaries have been stretched into Ozone Park to maintain the current demographic balance, many local leaders, including Alexa Avilés, Jennifer Gutiérrez, and Marcela Mitaynes have come out against the new map, penning a letter asking the state legislature to redraw the lines. 

While Velázquez herself remains as safe from a challenge, right or left, as any congressmember in the City, many are left wondering how such a change will affect the Hispanic and Asian residents now drawn into NY-11, who have enjoyed decades of consistent support from Velázquez’s office.

Whitney Hu, Director for Civic Engagement and Research at Churches United for Fair Housing, told the Brooklyn Paper:

“Velázquez’s office is an integral source of support and information for the community — especially for people facing problems with immigration and deportation. If Malliotakis suddenly becomes the neighborhood’s representative, even for a short while, constituents would be without a trusted, safe place to turn, Hu said. The Democratic party’s larger goal of flipping a district and gaining a house seat could come at the expense of people who need a representative who knows and cares about them.”

To dive deeper into this issue, please check out this article: 

NY-8 - Hakeem Jeffries

Demographics: White 27.7%(+3.3) Hispanic 15.6%(-2.7) Black 49.5%(-2.1) Asian 10.2%(+1.2)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Adams 54% Wiley 26% Garcia 11% Yang 9% (Adams+28)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 73% Nixon 27% (Cuomo+46)

2018 LG Primary - Williams 60% Hochul 40% (Williams+20)

As Jeffries looks primed to succeed Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House, he remains quite safe from challengers in his district. Jeffries district shifted right by six points, going from D+62 to D+56, a consequence of losing portions of Downtown Brooklyn while picking up parts of more conservative Southern Brooklyn neighborhoods, like Sheepshead Bay and Gravesend. Jeffries is well-positioned to hold his seat for as long as he wants to.

NY-9 - Yvette Clarke

Demographics: White 28.9%(-2.4) Hispanic 12.5%(+0.7) Black 46.8%(-2.0) Asian 13.4%(+3.6)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Adams 53% Wiley 28% Garcia 11% Yang 8% (Adams+25)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 73% Nixon 27% (Cuomo+46)

2018 LG Primary - Williams 64% Hochul 36% (Williams+28)

After having nearly lost to primary challenger Adam Bunkeddeko in 2018, Yvette Clarke appeared quite vulnerable. However, a more decisive win two years later coupled with new maps this year should further insulate Clarke from a competitive challenge to her Central Brooklyn seat. Gone are the white liberal precincts of Park Slope and Windsor Terrace that almost fueled Clarke’s upset, replaced instead by more of Midwood's Orthodox Jewish lined along Ocean Parkway. While Clarke sheds conservative enclaves in Sheepshead Bay and Gerritsen Beach to Hakeem Jeffries, her district rounds out in the Southwest to include many majority Asian precincts in Bensonhurst, Brooklyn’s second largest Chinatown. Using data from the 2021 Mayoral Primary, comparing Clarke’s new district to her old one, changes to the candidates vote shares were as followed: Eric Adams (+6.5%), Andrew Yang (+1.8%), Maya Wiley (-2.5%), and Kathryn Garcia (-6.7%). Essentially, Clarke has shed all of the precincts that decisively voted against her four years ago, while retaining her most loyal voting blocs.

NY-10 - Jerry Nadler

Demographics: White 51.3%(-6.4) Hispanic 13.3%(+0.2) Black 6.3%(+0.4) Asian 28.4%(+6.0)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Garcia 40% Wiley 24% Yang 20% Adams 16% (Garcia+16)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 54.5% Nixon 45.5% (Cuomo+9)

2018 LG Primary - Williams 57% Hochul 43% (Williams+14)

It is likely that Nadler’s crudely shaped, heavily gerrymandered district - designed to unite Manhattan’s West Side Jewish population with Borough Park’s Hasidim community - will change hands before the next redistricting cycle, as rumors have picked up over the last twelve months concerning whether Nadler, 74, will retire soon. Coupled with the retirement of longtime assembly member Dick Gottfried, a changing of the guard could soon commence on the Upper West Side, where Nadler has held elected office for over forty-five years. All eyes are on Comptroller Scott Stringer, a longtime protege of the congressman, who figures to be in the mix for Nadler's seat upon his retirement. 

NY-11 - Nicole Malliotakis

The Brooklyn portion of NY-11

Demographics: White 52.6%(-2.4) Hispanic 22.7%(+4.8) Black 10.6%(+1.1) Asian 15.0%(-3.4)

2021 Mayoral General - Sliwa 53% Adams 41% (Sliwa+12)

2020 Presidential - Biden 54% Trump 45% (Biden+9)

2017 Mayoral General - Malliotakis 56.5% De Blasio 38.5% (Malliotakis+18)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Garcia 34% Wiley 29% Adams 22% Yang 15% (Garcia+5)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 55% Nixon 45% (Cuomo+10)

2018 LG Primary - Williams 56% Hochul 44% (Williams+12)

By far the most intriguing development from the state’s congressional redistricting was the gerrymander to flip NY-11 from a Trump+10 district to Biden+9, which puts Republican Nicole Malliotakis in grave danger of losing her seat this November. Malliotakis, who voted to decertify the Presidential election, has seen her Staten Island-based seat drawn to include some of Brooklyn’s most left leaning neighborhoods, like Gowanus and Park Slope, as well as the western, more Hispanic portion of Sunset Park - all while losing more conservative southern Brooklyn neighborhoods like Bensonhurst and Gravesend. The polarization surrounding Malliotakis, who will likely be endorsed once more by Donald Trump, severely hampers her ability to win over the district’s crossover voters, which could ultimately doom her. Even amidst a difficult midterm environment, Democrats remain poised to pick up the seat, especially without Trump on the ballot, so long as turnout doesn’t crater.

However, much of the politics concerning the November election hinge on who wins the June Democratic primary. Given the unique opportunity - an open Democratic primary for a Biden+9 seat - one can expect this race will attract a lot of attention, money, and entrants over the next few months. 

Max Rose, who represented NY-11 for two years before losing a bitter election to Malliotakis in 2020, is back with a vengeance. Already, Rose has amassed strong fundraising totals and looks poised to consolidate support from the City’s more moderate institutions. However, Rose could soon face questions over past moves to appeal to the district’s more conservative voters - which could potentially hamper him with the district’s liberal voters, leaving him vulnerable to a progressive, or even a socialist.

Editor’s Note: Rose appears to have deleted an ad from his Twitter page in which he praised Donald Trump for killing Qasem Soleimani and criticized Bill de Blasio for “trying to defund the police”

Enter Socialist Brittany Ramos DeBarros. Since the district lines were redrawn, no congressional candidate has gained more momentum than Ramos DeBarros, an Afro-Latina community organizer and former combat veteran. Despite lacking the name recognition possessed by Rose or some of the other rumored entrants, Ramos DeBarros has an ideological path to victory in the primary - given that socialist candidates have done well in Bay Ridge (Khader El-Yateem), Sunset Park (Alexa Avilés and Marcela Mitaynes), and Park Slope (Brandon West and Shahana Hanif). If Ramos DeBarros can coalesce left-leaning nonprofits and progressive institutions, while translating earned media into competitive fundraising, she will have a strong chance.

After reportedly commissioning polls and making calls to gauge support, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is rumored to be considering a bid in the redrawn 11th district, which now includes his home in Park Slope. After being visibly beaten down by the stress of being Mayor, De Blasio may be better suited for Congress, where he can rehab his standing amongst the broader Democratic electorate without the pressure of delivering as an executive. While a congressional run in NY-11 is infinitely more realistic than his previously rumored run for Governor, De Blasio would be far from a shoe-in. 

Both Rose and Malliotakis consistently turned the ex-Mayor into both a punchline and punching-bag throughout their past campaigns. Out of all the candidates, De Blasio could be the greatest general election liability, given his polarization amongst outer borough whites. In their Mayoral matchup, Malliotakis handily beat him by eighteen points in the new NY-11, which - in spite of all the differences between a non-competitive 2017 citywide race and a 2022 swing house district - cannot be taken lightly. However, I would not count out De Blasio, who has made a habit of winning as an underdog. 

If De Blasio enters the race, it would likely be on the presumption that many of his longtime allies in organized labor would back him. Undoubtedly, there are a few folks who still owe him favors too. He would also have near universal name recognition with the district’s voters - although whether that does more harm than good is anyone’s guess. Losing a congressional race fresh off being Mayor would be a somber arc for New York City’s former progressive wunderkin, so if De Blasio declares, it’s because he genuinely believes there is a credible path to victory.

Max Rose will undoubtedly cast himself as the safe bet, while implying that either De Blasio or Ramos DeBarros is in serious danger of losing the general election to Malliotakis. Such a strategy could help manufacture consent for Rose, and it will be interesting how narratives develop throughout the primary, given a lionshare of the district’s Democratic electorate now resides in progressive Brooklyn. 

Yet, there are two wildcard entrants I could foresee potentially shaking up the race. The first is a rather obvious take, so I preemptively apologize. Kathryn Garcia, the former sanitation commissioner who came within less than eight thousand votes of becoming Mayor, could enter as the frontrunner if she chose to declare. In the final round of ranked choice voting during the Mayoral primary, Garcia won the newly drawn 11th district with over 66% of the vote. Already, over 41,000 of the district’s voters have ranked her on a Democratic primary ballot before. With the rare ability to unite both Park Slope liberals and Staten Island conservative whites, Garcia would likely emerge as the favorite amongst the City’s Editorial Boards, namely The New York Times. If Garcia, who is currently the Director of State Operations for Governor Kathy Hochul, remains enticed by the prospect of holding elected office, then this strikes me as a golden opportunity. 

The last person we shall discuss is already running, just not for this seat. Jumaane Williams, the City’s Public Advocate, is currently engaged in a longshot primary challenge to Governor Hochul. However, given the chasm between their fundraising totals - as of the last filing deadline, Hochul had outraised Williams by a factor of 100 to 1 - and because Hochul, for all her faults, is simply not the leftist foil Cuomo was, there is less energy around Williams’ statewide bid than there was four years ago. Given Hochul’s growing strength, the window of opportunity for a Williams upset appears to be closing. In spite of sitting out the Mayoral primary, where he would have been a premier contender, Williams still remains one of the City’s biggest progressive stars poised for higher office. I would argue that instead of looking statewide, Williams should consider his backyard first. This brings us to the newly drawn NY-11.

A resident of Fort Hamilton in Southern Brooklyn, Williams could draw national attention if he ran for Congress. A darling of the Working Families Party and New York City’s left leaning nonprofits, Williams could conceivably marry endorsements from the likes of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren with powerhouse unions like 32BJ and 1199 SEIU. If he won, Williams could easily join ranks with “The Squad” and hold his seat indefinitely, raising his profile exponentially overnight. 

Despite the district's noticeably large white-to-black population ratio - 55% to 10% - Williams nonetheless bested Hochul here by twelve points in their 2018 faceoff. Having run statewide once and citywide twice, Williams possesses the high name recognition necessary to win a crowded primary, without the baggage of De Blasio or the centrist reactionary concerns of Rose. 

Instead of primarying an incumbent Governor who has banked over $21 million, Williams would have as strong a shot as anyone in this field. Most importantly, Williams could run for Congress and not risk losing his position as Public Advocate if he lost, like he would have, had he run for Mayor. While political capital is not endless, the rewards here far outweigh the risks - many of which are mitigated.

If Jumaane Williams intends to seek higher office soon, this is his best chance. 

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NY-12 - Carolyn Maloney

Demographics: White 64.0%(+2.5) Hispanic 11.6%(-2.0) Black 7.0%(--) Asian 17.0%(-0.5)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Garcia 46% Wiley 24% Adams 16% Yang 13% (Garcia+22)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 54% Nixon 46% (Cuomo+8)

2018 LG Primary - Williams 55% Hochul 45% (Williams+10)

Carolyn Maloney emerged from this year’s redistricting cycle as one of the clearest winners. As her district continued to trend farther left, Maloney was shored up immensely, losing large chunks of Astoria (to Ocasio-Cortez) and Greenpoint (to Velázquez). Maloney’s combined vote share amongst all the precincts she ceded on the district’s more progressive Queens/Brooklyn side, amounted to a whopping 28.2% in her 2020 primary. The district was deliberately drawn to maximize Maloney’s strength with public housing residents, as all three large NYCHA developments on the Queens side - Ravenswood, Queensbridge and Astoria - remained, while the district’s northernmost boundary in Manhattan was extended to include East Harlem’s Washington Houses. The district, which for decades has been confined to Manhattan’s East Side, even expanded west of Central Park to include Columbus Avenue, while extending downward to encompass significant portions of Greenwich Village and Soho. 

Results from the 2021 Mayoral Primary - specifically the vote splits between Kathryn Garcia and Maya Wiley - offer a near perfect proxy for this shift. All told, within the old boundaries of NY-12, the splits between Garcia and Wiley were 42.27% to 28.41% respectively - a sizable gap nonetheless, but one progressives could realistically close. Yet, by altering the district’s boundaries, vote share in the new NY-12 skewed towards Garcia - with 45.99% - instead of Wiley - 24.43% - essentially an eight point shift. I see a lot of overlap, particularly on the Manhattan side, between Maloney and Garcia, and I view their results as closely linked.

Given the new lines, Rana Abdelhamid, the Justice Democrats-backed challenger to Maloney, faces an uphill climb that just got steeper. A looming variable hanging over the race is whether Suraj Patel, who challenged Maloney in 2018 and 2020 - and came within 3,300 votes of victory in the latter - will enter the race and self-finance. Patel, who recently commissioned a text poll gauging his support, is said to be weighing his options. A last minute Patel entrance would shake up the race, threatening to split up the already fractured progressive vote while kneecapping any momentum Abdelhamid might have in the process. 

While Maloney, 75, is favored to win in June - many candidates are undoubtedly setting themselves up to run once she retires, likely within before the district is redrawn again. If Abdelhamid does not prevail this time around but submits a strong showing, I would be surprised if she was a “one and done” candidate. Challengers rarely defeat incumbents the first time around. 

Looking ahead, I have my eye on State Senator Brad Hoylman and Councilmembers Keith Powers and Julie Menin. There is a chance former City Council Speaker Corey Johnson was also drawn into this seat as well…

NY-13 - Adriano Espaillat

Demographics: White 13.2%(-1.4) Hispanic 55.0%(+2.3) Black 35.3%(+0.5) Asian 5.2%(-1.1)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Adams 40% Wiley 32% Garcia 19% Yang 9% (Adams+8)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 68% Nixon 32% (Cuomo+36)

2018 LG Primary - Williams 55% Hochul 45% (Williams+10)

After winning a bitterly close 2016 open primary, following two close but unsuccessful challenges to longtime Rep. Charlie Rangel, Espaillat looks poised to comfortably hold his seat for the foreseeable future, given he is an ideological and demographical match for his district. In terms of redistricting, the few notable changes occurred in the Bronx portion of his district, as he lost Norwood and a portion of Bedford Park, but gained University Heights, Fordham, and Tremont from Ritchie Torres. Espaillat appears to have the pulse of his district, as he backed all the winning council candidates: Shaun Abreu, Carmen De La Rosa, Oswald Feliz and Pierina Sanchez, all of whom could be in line to succeed him in Congress. Similar to Nydia Velázquez in North Brooklyn, Espaillat has a strong bench of localized leaders in Upper Manhattan and the Bronx.

NY-14 - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Demographics: White 22.7%(+1.8) Hispanic 47.1%(-1.4) Black 11.7%(-0.8) Asian 20.5%(-0.2)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Wiley 31% Adams 28% Garcia 23% Yang 18% (Wiley+3)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 65% Nixon 35% (Cuomo+30)

2018 LG Primary - Williams 51% Hochul 49% (Williams+2)

The entirety of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s congressional district is not nearly as down ballot progressive as one might think. Amongst the Democratic electorate in AOC’s old district, Eric Adams received the highest vote share of all the Mayoral candidates. Even in her newly drawn district, which added some of the City’s most progressive precincts in Astoria, both Cynthia Nixon and Jumaane Williams underperformed their citywide margins. It is a testament to the organizing done by Ocasio-Cortez and her allies that, in spite of an onslaught of right wing media, she remains staunchly popular inside her district - having dispatched very well-funded opposition just two years prior with over 74% of the vote. A Senate run is the only thing that could separate Ocasio-Cortez from the 14th district. 

NY-15 - Ritchie Torres

Demographics: White 7.4%%(+4.9) Hispanic 59.4%(-5.0) Black 38.2%(-2.2) Asian 4.6%(+1.4)

2021 Mayoral Primary - Adams 50% Wiley 21% Garcia 27% Yang 13% (Adams+3)

2018 Governor Primary - Cuomo 65% Nixon 35% (Cuomo+30)

2018 LG Primary - Hochul 58% Williams 42% (Hochul+16)

The staunchly Pro-Israel Torres saw his district extend north to the whiter, more affluent Riverdale, known for its substantial Jewish population. Gifting Riverdale to Torres was an attempt to shore up support for Jamaal Bowman, who had staked out a relatively left-leaning position on Palestine by Democratic Party standards.

After winning a highly competitive primary in 2020 with twelve candidates on the ballot, it is unlikely Torres faces a strong challenge for a while, sans scandal or outright disaster. Considering he is only 33, Torres can bide his time, as he is considered a rising star amongst the Party’s more corporate-aligned moderate faction.

I will be back TOMORROW to give a detailed preview of how redistricting affected the State Assembly and Senate maps. Sign up below to have my next piece delivered right to your inbox !

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