A Path to Victory in the City Council Speaker's Race
Mapping out potential coalitions in the City Council Speaker's Race - based on ideology, endorsements, identity, and geography
There is eleventh hour drama as the City Council Speaker’s Race enters the home stretch.
In a perennial struggle of wills, seven candidates enthusiastically vie against one another for the support of twenty-six of the council’s fifty-one incoming members. To win, a speaker candidate must tactfully navigate county organizations and local power brokers all while contending with issues of representation and ideology.
While the Speaker’s race is still brokered behind closed doors, largely out of view from the general public, this year’s race marks an inflection point. Never before have incoming members had greater autonomy from interest groups, county organizations, and labor unions.
Such a sea change has been brewing for years, and has likely contributed to the unpredictable environment in this year’s race, which still lacks a clear frontrunner.
To learn about the history of the Speaker’s race, please check out my last piece:
Today, we will attempt to evaluate each Speaker candidate's chances at reaching twenty-six votes, and which members could help, or hurt, their odds of reaching the ever-elusive threshold.
In order to get a sense of how members will decide which Speaker candidate they will support, it is essential to look at the many factors which could influence such a decision - one at a time - before combining such forces to establish a candidate’s potential coalition, and ultimately assess their path to victory.
The factors I focused on that could determine a members’ support are:
Ideology, Endorsements, Identity, and Geography.
I then broke down how every council member fit into each group - and if a particular Speaker candidate would be more or less likely to win their support because of it.
As you will see, I labeled these groups as blocs and listed out each council member (and their district) that fit into said category - while totalling the number of members in said bloc.
While many of the blocs listed will not vote as one (except the Republican delegation) nor am I trying to say any one group is a monolith, I am simply trying to approach the Speaker’s race from as many lenses as possible, and at the very least, offer the reader all the information necessary to come to their own conclusion.
Disclaimer: If you disagree with any designation, coalition, or bloc I have - or a members’ place in them - Please reach out to me kindly and offer your thoughts. This is an imperfect exercise undertaken with the hope of mapping out the many potential outcomes the Speaker’s race could entail.
Without further adieu, here are the seven candidates. We’ll learn more as we go.
Carlina Rivera (District 2) - East Village and Lower East Side
Keith Powers (District 4) - Midtown East and the Upper East Side
Gale Brewer (District 6) - Upper West Side
Diana Ayala (District 8) - East Harlem(MN) and Mott Haven(BX)
Francisco Moya (District 21) - East Elmhurst, Jackson Heights, Lefrak City and Corona
Adrienne Adams (District 28) - Jamaica, Rochdale, Richmond Hill, and South Ozone Park
Justin Brannan (District 43) - Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, and Bensonhurst
These aforementioned Speaker candidates are removed from the following Blocs, as each are attempting to build their own winning coalitions sans other candidates. However, as the field narrows, Speaker candidates will undoubtedly form alliances and coalesce, which we will address later.
Potential Voting Blocs
Ideology-Based Blocs
Progressive Bloc:
Christopher Marte (D1), Carmen De La Rosa (D10), Marjorie Velázquez (D13), Pierina Sanchez (D14), Althea Stevens (D16), Amanda Farias (D18), Shekar Krishnan (D25), Julie Won (D26), Lincoln Restler (D33), Jennifer Gutiérrez (D34), Crystal Hudson (D35), Chi Ossé (D36), Sandy Nurse (D37), Shahana Hanif (D39), Rita Joseph (D40) - Fifteen total
Despite being overshadowed by Eric Adams' narrow victory, progressives made credible gains in the council, in many cases replacing more conservative, term-limited members - thus shifting the power in the Democratic. Nowhere was this more evident than in the Bronx, where Marjorie Velázquez, Pierina Sanchez and Amanda Farias replaced Mark Gjonaj, Fernando Cabrera and Ruben Diaz Sr. While the Council’s Progressive Caucus is normally inflated, as some members join for status and not substance, this year’s council boasts a relatively promising group with strong left bona fides. Most of these incoming members campaigned on significantly reducing the NYPD’s operating budget, which should benefit Carlina Rivera, the only Speaker candidate who voted against the 2020 budget on the grounds that such cuts to the NYPD were not made. Rivera, who has credibly claimed the progressive lane in the Speaker’s race, endorsed over half this group in the primary. While she has the inside track to win over most progressives, in order to reach the magic number of twenty-six votes, Rivera will likely need to coalesce at least ⅔ of these members, if not all of them, behind her effort.
[Speaker candidates in this category - one: Carlina Rivera]
Liberals:
Erik Bottcher (D3), Lynn Schulman (D29), Mercedes Narcisse (D46) - Three total
There are few incoming council members who I would consider classic liberals. However, these three, whose districts vary from Manhattan's Chelsea to Brooklyn’s Canarsie, campaigned on ideologies that could realistically lead them to backing any of the seven Speaker candidates. Bottcher, Shulman and Narcisse all won support in the primary from both establishment-heavy labor coalitions and progressive grassroots organizations. Their support will likely not be tied to one another or even to their ideology - a unique phenomena for this section - potentially leading them to opt for another coalition instead, centered around labor, endorsements, identity, or geography. These folks are prime candidates to be the swing votes that decide the outcome of the Speaker’s race. Be sure to see which committees they end up on.
[Speaker candidates in this category - Two: Keith Powers and Gale Brewer]
Moderate Bloc:
Julie Menin (D5), Shaun Abreu (D7), Eric Dinowitz (D11), Kevin Riley (D12), Oswald Feliz (D13), Rafael Salamanca (D17), Sandra Ung (D20), Linda Lee (D23), Nantasha Williams (D27), Selvena Brooks-Powers (D31), Darlene Mealy (D41), Farah Louis (D45), Ari Kagan (D47), Kamilah Hanks (D49) - Fourteen total
While only *officially* numbered at fourteen by my estimation, moderate council members will face fewer obstacles building upon their bloc given their position at the ideological median. To win the race, these members are a necessary part of any coalition, a reality that entails a lot of power. The harsh truth is that even if socialists, progressives and liberals coalesce - they will still fall short by approximately six votes. Whether the ideology of moderate councilmembers takes a backseat to issues of identity representation, repaying primary endorsements, or geographical blocs, is the question that could ultimately define the race. If these members align in some way, they retain a tremendous amount of negotiating power, given they can easily pit the left against the right to increase their leverage. Since the “moderate lane” is also the most heavily occupied, boasting four of the seven speaker candidates, the preferences of future Mayor Eric Adams, as well as his allies in organized labor, will loom especially large over this group.
[Speaker candidates in this category - Four: Diana Ayala, Francisco Moya, Adrienne Adams, Justin Brannan]
Conservative Democrat Bloc:
Jim Gennaro (D24), Robert Holden (D30), Kalman Yeger (D44) - Three total
The infamous “Common Sense” Caucus, a dubious alliance between conservative Democrats and Republicans in the mold of the IDC, senses an opportunity to expand its ranks with the incoming council - and in turn, influence the Speaker’s race. While Holden and Yeger, both of whom were elected on the Republican and Democrat ballot lines, have limited influence with other members, banding together with Gennaro and the Republican caucus is the ultimate ploy to increase their power. Elected without the support of the city’s most influential labor unions and power brokers, Holden, Yeger, and Gennaro are beholden to little except their own self-interest and ideological leanings - much to the chagrin of the moderate candidates. In a classic political power play, I expect these three conservative members to essentially vote alongside the five Republican members, giving them a formidable bloc of eight capable of significantly altering the race - so long as they don’t overplay their hand.
Editor’s Note: The IDC, or Independent Democratic Conference, was a group of State Senate Democrats who, despite their party affiliation, caucused with Republicans, giving them a majority in the chamber, which stonewalled progressive legislations for years.
Republican Bloc:
Vickie Palladino (D19), Joann Ariola (D32), Inna Vernikov (D48), David Carr (D50), Joe Borelli (D51) - Five total
Led by Minority Leader Joe Borelli, the Republican caucus grew its ranks this past November, expanding its council foothold into Northeast Queens and South Brooklyn while retaining all three of their current seats. After watching the Speaker’s race unfold from the sidelines over the past decade, the Republican Caucus is eager to assert themselves this year. Unlike the previously mentioned ideological blocs, the Republicans will almost assuredly vote together as a bloc of five, in order to increase their bargaining power with the candidates, hoping to extract maximum concessions from the eventual victor. If they successfully block with conservative members, IDC-style, their ability to sway the race will only increase. Despite the best efforts of progressive non-profits, including Make The Road Action and New York Communities, who openly penned a letter urging the Speaker candidates to forgo making deals with the Republican members, all seven candidates declined to eschew their support. Candidates are increasingly reluctant to leave any votes on the table, even those by members who proudly supported Donald Trump. In a crowded, muddied race that lacks a clear frontrunner, any vote, let alone five, is increasingly hard to come by.
DSA Bloc:
Tiffany Cabán (D22), Alexa Avilés (D38) - Two total
While the DSA bloc is relatively small in size, expect both Cabán and Avilés to not only have significant influence within the council’s progressive caucus, but to tie their votes together for the Speaker’s race. During the June Primary, most of the Speaker candidates went against DSA in Districts 14, 23 and 35 - backing Pierina Sanchez over Adolfo Abreu, Linda Lee over Jaslin Kaur, and Crystal Hudson over Michael Hollingsworth. However, Cabán and Avilés were both backed in their races by Carlina Rivera, the only speaker candidate to support both. Rivera, a former dues-paying member of DSA, also sought the organization’s endorsement in 2017. Given Rivera’s vote against the 2020 budget and her early support for both Cabán, who according to Politico is angling for Public Safety Chair, and Avilés - she should be considered the frontrunner for their support.
Black-Socialist Bloc:
Kristin Richardson Jordan (D9), Charles Barron (D42) - Two Total
One of the great unknowns in the Speaker’s race is what Charles Barron and Kristin Richardson Jordan will do. Barron is infamous for his dissent, as both him and his wife, Inez (we wish her well in retirement), have previously launched last-minute protest bids, losing 50-1. Barron and Richardson Jordan, often compared to one another for their embrace of socialism rooted in Black radical politics, appear to have forged a genuine friendship. Per Jeff Coltin’s reporting, Barron and Richardson Jordan might have something up their sleeve - urging members to preserve their autonomy and band together, as in this race, two votes can make a profound difference in altering the landscape. There are few absolutes in life, but Charles Barron will never support a Speaker candidate backed by Eric Adams.
Endorsement-Based Blocs
Labor Strong Coalition Bloc:
Erik Bottcher (D3), Julie Menin (D5), Shaun Abreu (D7), Carmen De La Rosa (D10), Kevin Riley (D12), Marjorie Velázquez (D13), Althea Stevens (D16), Rafael Salamanca (D17), Amanda Farias (D18), Sandra Ung (D20), Tiffany Cabán (D22), Shekar Krishnan (D25), Lynn Shulman (D29), Selvena Brooks-Powers (D31), Lincoln Restler (D33), Jennifer Gutiérrez (D34), Sandy Nurse (D37), Alexa Avilés (D38), Farah Louis (D45), Ari Kagan (D47) - Twenty-one total
Made up of five of the city’s most influential labor unions, four of whom endorsed Eric Adams in the primary, the Labor Strong Coalition backed every incumbent Speaker candidate, endorsing twenty-eight winners in total. One would think, given the unions’ proximity to Eric Adams throughout the duration of his career, a prospective labor coalition in the speaker’s race would only center around a candidate with Adams’ blessing. Yet, per The Daily News, despite Adams’ inner circle attempting to rally support for Moya, the heavyweights of the Labor Strong coalition, namely 32BJ and DC37, do not share their enthusiasm, preferring Carlina Rivera, Keith Powers, Adrienne Adams or Diana Ayala instead. If organized labor and the Mayor settle on a candidate, it could be game over for everyone else.
[Speaker candidates backed by Labor Strong - All Seven: Carlina Rivera, Keith Powers, Gale Brewer, Diana Ayala, Francisco Moya, Adrienne Adams, Justin Brannan]
Working Families Party Bloc:
Marjorie Velázquez (D13), Althea Stevens (D16), Amanda Farias (D18), Tiffany Cabán (D22), Lincoln Restler (D33), Jennifer Gutiérrez (D34), Chi Ossé (D36), Sandy Nurse (D37), Alexa Avilés (D38), Shahana Hanif (D39), Mercedes Narcisse (D46) - Eleven total
A Working Families Party centered coalition is a good starting base for any candidate. Since WFP only endorsed Rivera and Brannan, they will face an easier time coalescing their endorsees if they choose to do so. Although nothing is guaranteed, the party’s ability to swing the race down the stretch, especially for Brannan, who could significantly benefit from more progressive members in his corner, should not be discounted.
[Speaker candidates backed by the Working Families Party - Two: Carlina Rivera and Justin Brannan]
Endorsed by Multiple Speaker Candidates:
Erik Bottcher (D3) - Rivera, Brannan, and Powers
Julie Menin (D5) - Rivera, Brannan, Ayala, and Powers (co-endorsement)
Shaun Abreu (D7) - Brannan and Powers
Carmen De La Rosa (D10) - Rivera, Brannan, Powers, and Adams
Eric Dinowitz (D11) - Rivera, Brannan, and Powers
Marjorie Velázquez (D13) - Rivera, Brannan, Powers, Adams, and Ayala
Pierina Sanchez (D14) - Rivera, Brannan, Powers, Adams, and Ayala
Althea Stevens (D16) - Rivera, Brannan, Powers, Adams, and Ayala
Amanda Farias (D18) - Rivera, Brannan, Powers, Adams, and Ayala
Sandra Ung (D20) - Rivera, Brannan, Powers and Adams
Linda Lee (D23): Rivera, Brannan, and Powers
Shekar Krishnan (D25): Rivera and Brannan
Lynn Shulman (D29): Rivera, Brannan, and Powers
Selvena Brooks-Powers (D31): Rivera, Powers, and Adams
Lincoln Restler (D33): Brannan and Powers
Jennifer Gutiérrez (D34): Rivera, Brannan, Powers and Adams
Crystal Hudson (D35): Rivera, Brannan, Powers and Adams
Alexa Avilés (D38): Rivera and Adams
All four of Rivera, Brannan, Powers and Adams were incredibly active with endorsements throughout the primary, in an attempt to curry favor with incoming members. All withstanding, Rivera, Brannan, and Powers each endorsed eighteen incoming winners, while Adams backed twelve and Ayala supported just five. The Bronx delegation was particularly competitive, as all five speaker candidates who made endorsements backed Velázquez, Sanchez, Stevens and Farias, the eventual winners. In the vast majority of cases, the speaker candidates endorsed the prohibitive favorite, as candidates rarely took a chance on insurgents. Outside of the Bronx, some of the most coveted incoming council members were Julie Menin, Carmen De La Rosa, Sandra Ung, Jennifer Gutiérrez, and Crystal Hudson - all of whom were endorsed by four of the candidates. There was relatively uniform consensus on who to endorse until halfway through Brooklyn, where the candidates either began to diverge from one another, or just stopped endorsing altogether.
Notably absent from this list are Francisco Moya and Gale Brewer, who did not endorse any incoming members, a startling fact that not only placed them in a position of disadvantage, but could ultimately doom their effort.
Endorsement information was cross referenced between the candidate’s websites, this article from Gotham Gazette’s Samar Khurshid and this Jeff Coltin tweet
Endorsed by Only One Speaker Candidate:
Carlina Rivera - Two: Tiffany Cabán (D22), Sandy Nurse (D37)
Justin Brannan - Three: Nantasha Williams (D27), Farah Louis (D45), Ari Kagan (D47)
Keith Powers - One: Rita Joseph (D40)
All other Speaker candidates have None
Each Speaker candidate who was the sole endorser of an incoming member should be considered a strong favorite to win their support.
Backed Their Opponent:
Christopher Marte (D1): Rivera, Powers, Adams (all Jenny Low)
Julie Won (D26): Adams (Ebony Young)
Chi Ossé (D36): Brannan (Henry Butler)
Sandy Nurse (D37): Brannan (Darma Diaz)
Alexa Avilés (D38): Brannan (César Zuñiga)
Rita Joseph (D40): Brannan (Josue Pierre)
Mercedes Narcisse (D46): Rivera (Shirley Paul)
Kamillah Hanks (D49): Brannan (Mariya Markh)
This is where things get awkward. Brannan had the worst luck (or foresight) of any speaker candidate, backing five candidates who went on to lose their - a risk when one endorses twenty-four candidates in all. While such blunders are forgivable, I find it hard to imagine that these council members will pledge to support the speakership candidacy of someone who backed their opponent in the primary - after all, politics is a game of hard feelings.
Rep. Nydia Velázquez:
Julie Menin, Shekar Krishnan, Lincoln Restler, Jennifer Gutiérrez, Sandy Nurse, Alexa Avilés
Velázquez has been a longstanding ally of Carlina Rivera and, after releasing a statement last night, seems determined to not only provide a check on Eric Adams’ power, but elevate a woman to be the next Council Speaker.
Rep. Adriano Espaillat:
Julie Menin, Gale Brewer, Shaun Abreu, Carmen De La Rosa, Pierina Sanchez, Oswald Feliz
In a shocking turn of events, Espaillat, who was recently appointed a Senior Adviser to Eric Adams’ transition team, appears to have drifted away from Diana Ayala and into the future Mayor’s corner. If Espaillat, with the help of Adams, defects to another candidate, members like Oswald Feliz could follow.
Queens County - Rep. Gregory Meeks:
Sandra Ung, Jim Gennaro, Lynn Shulman, Selvena Brooks-Powers + Moya and Adams
Presiding over the once-mighty county organization, Meeks made only eight endorsements in the council primary - three of whom were incumbents (Moya, Adams, and Gennaro). In open seats, the county party went 3-2, winning with Ung, Shulman and Brooks-Powers but losing in Districts 19 (Austin Shafran) and 26 (Ebony Young) per the Queens Eagle. While Meeks prefers Adams to Moya, it is unlikely he can marshall significant support for either on his own.
The Ultimate “Free Agents”:
Christopher Marte (D1), Kristin Richardson Jordan (D9), Julie Won (D26), Robert Holden (D30), Darlene Mealy (D41), Charles Barron (D42), Kalman Yeger (D44), Kamillah Hanks (D48)
These eight council members were not endorsed by ANY of the candidates for Speaker, nor the Working Families Party, Labor Strong coalition, or any congressional power broker. Their ideologies vary widely, from socialists Charles Barron and Kristin Richardson Jordan to conservatives Kalman Yeger and Robert Holden. These incoming members essentially “owe” nothing to the interest groups outlined above, which give them a degree of independence as the race enters it’s home stretch.
Indentity-Based Blocs
Democrat People of Color Bloc:
Christopher Marte (D1), Shaun Abreu (D7), Kristin Richardson Jordan (D9), Carmen De La Rosa (D10), Kevin Riley (D12), Marjorie Velázquez (D13), Pierina Sanchez (D14), Oswald Feliz (D15), Althea Stevens (D16), Rafael Salamanca (D17), Amanda Farias (D18), Sandra Ung (D20), Tiffany Cabán (D22), Linda Lee (D23), Shekar Krishnan (D25), Julie Won (D26), Nantasha Williams (D27), Selvena Brooks-Powers (D31), Jennifer Gutiérrez (D34), Crystal Hudson (D35), Chi Ossé (D36), Sandy Nurse (D37), Alexa Avilés (D38), Shahana Hanif (D39), Rita Joseph (D40), Darlene Mealy (D41), Charles Barron (D42), Farah Louis (D45), Mercedes Narcisse (D46), Kamillah Hanks (D49) - Thirty total
Including the Speaker candidates, a whopping thirty-four of the council’s fifty-one members will be people of color. The council, long holding a majority of Black, Latino and Asian members, has only once chosen a person of color to be Speaker, Melissa Mark-Viverito in 2013. If Democrats are determined to elect a Speaker that reflects the incoming council’s growing diversity, they undoubtedly have the votes to do so. In past Speaker’s races, member loyalty to county leaders, power brokers and labor unions routinely trumped concerns centering identity. As the collective influence of those forces has waned, it will be intriguing to see if members use their increased autonomy to support a Speaker that reflects the diversity pervasive throughout not only the council chamber, but the city itself.
[Speaker candidates in this category - Four: Carlina Rivera, Diana Ayala, Francisco Moya, Adrienne Adams]
Democrat Women Bloc:
Julie Menin (D5), Kristin Richardson Jordan (D9), Carmen De La Rosa (D10), Marjorie Velázquez (D13), Pierina Sanchez (D14), Althea Stevens (D16), Amanda Farias (D18), Sandra Ung (D20), Tiffany Cabán (D22), Linda Lee (D23), Julie Won (D26), Nantasha Williams (D27), Lynn Shulman (D29), Selvena Brooks-Powers (D31), Jennifer Gutiérrez (D34), Crystal Hudson (D35), Sandy Nurse (D37), Alexa Avilés (D38), Shahana Hanif (D39), Rita Joseph (D40), Darlene Mealy (D41), Farah Louis (D45), Mercedes Narcisse (D46), Kamillah Hanks (D49) - Twenty-four total
Spearheaded by organizations like 21 in ‘21, there has been a concerted effort to elect more women to the City Council - which culminated in twenty-three newly-elected women winning on the Democrat Party ballot line. When Speaker candidates are added into the fold, there are twenty-eight women in the Democratic Caucus, enough for a majority. However, the group spans radically different ideologies, so any effort to coalesce these members will not purely be driven by gender. While there will be a total of thirty-one women in the council come January, it is very unlikely that the three Republican women (Inna Vernikov, Joann Ariola, and Vickie Palladino) defect from the GOP bloc to individually support one of the women in the race. Would Vernikov, Ariola, and Palladino appeal to Borelli for their bloc to back a moderate woman? That remains to be seen.
This dichotomy when reports surfaced of Eric Adams’ preference for Moya or Branna, which drew the ire of many women's organizations, who released a joint statement. In the letter, Jessica Haller, executive director of 21 in ‘21 wrote:
“This is not in the hands of the Mayor-elect.We are not willing to accept the boys club of the old New York. Mayor-elect Adams needs to read the room,and when he does, he will see a majority of women, and they are ready to lead”
[Speaker candidates in this category - Four: Carlina Rivera, Gale Brewer, Diana Ayala, Adrienne Adams]
Women of Color in Bold - Twenty-two total
The vast majority of women newly elected to the Democratic caucus are people of color (22/24) and women will make up the majority of the BLAC (Black, Latino, and Asian Caucus) - 25/34. In the numbers game that is the Speaker’s race, these figures are tantamount to a winning coalition. While identity representation is not the overriding concern for every member when backing a speaker candidate, nor will women vote as a monolith, such concerns over representation are poised to play a defining role in this year’s race, especially given all three citywide elected officials are men. This reality could prove to be an obstacle for both Justin Brannan and Keith Powers, as many could be looking to diversify a position that has been held by a white member for 31/35 years it has existed.
There has been a growing call amongst the City’s Hispanic leaders for the next council speaker to be Hispanic, given the dearth of Latinos elected to city/statewide positions. The incoming class has fourteen total Hispanic members - eleven of whom are not running for Speaker - Rivera, Ayala and Moya are. Eight of the eleven are women, and all are ideologically aligned with progressive politics, a potential boon to Rivera, who likely has the edge with Tiffany Cabán, Jennifer Gutiérrez, Sandy Nurse, and Alexa Avilés. Determining who Bronx progressives Marjorie Velázquez, Pierina Sanchez, and Amanda Farias will support is more difficult - as both Rivera and Ayala endorsed all three. While their politics match up closest with Rivera, geographically, they share their borough and delegation with Ayala, who represents parts of the South Bronx. Despite neglecting to endorse during the primary, Moya could be in a strong position to woo moderates like Shaun Abreu, Oswald Feliz and Rafael Salamanca, buoyed by Eric Adams’ advisers and power broker Adriano Espaillat.
Editor’s Note: Both Sandy Nurse and Amanda Farias identify as Afro-Latina
Geographical Blocs
Bronx Bloc:
Eric Dinowitz (D11), Kevin Riley (D12), Marjorie Velázquez (D13), Pierina Sanchez (D14), Oswald Feliz (D15), Althea Stevens (D16), Rafael Salamanca (D17), Amanda Farias (D18) - Eight total + Diana Ayala
Under the leadership of State Senator Jamaal Bailey, the Bronx Democratic Party has sought to remake itself under a more progressive identity, and shed its much deserved reputation as a “boys club.” The county party, which has come to resemble a true organization rather than a political machine, swept their endorsement slate in June, backing all nine eventual winners. Wins for Velázquez, Sanchez, Stevens and Farias - all progressives - were particularly impressive, as in each case the party eschewed supporting more moderate alternatives.
As Party Chair, Bailey would ideally like to keep his members together to vote as a bloc, which would be a significant advantage, given that the other, once-mighty county organizations have withered away in power and influence. If the organization can coalesce its council delegation, there are a handful of Speaker candidates they could potentially support. Since 55% of the borough and 5/8ths of the council delegation is Hispanic, supporting one of Rivera, Ayala or Moya would make sense. Ayala, who represents Mott Haven in the council, appeared to have the inside track with the delegation, combining the necessary ideology, endorsements, geography, and demographics to win over members. She was also aided by the favor of Manhattan/Bronx congressman Adriano Espaillat, a senior adviser on Eric Adams’ transition team, who gave big endorsements to both Sanchez and Feliz during their campaigns. However, Espaillat and Adams have apparently teamed up in an attempt to push Ayala from the race in favor of another candidate, likely Francisco Moya, the emerging favorite amongst Adams’ inner circle, or even Brannan. Given Adams won 44.5% of the Bronx in the June Primary while being endorsed by the County Party, his intervention could go a long way in coalescing or dividing the borough. A wildcard in this equation is Moya’s relationship with State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie. Before being elected to the council, Moya served in the Assembly, growing close to Speaker throughout his time in Albany. Heastie, who chaired the Bronx Democratic Party for seven years, is a longstanding ally of Jamaal Bailey, who now occupies said position. Could Moya also ask Heastie and his labor allies to intervene on his behalf and convince Bailey to back him in the Speaker’s race?
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Paths to Victory
This section details every candidates’ potential coalition through a very optimistic lens, as, in a scenario where most things break in their favor - how will they do. As you will see, the race is muddied this year, and reaching twenty-six votes, especially without the help of Republicans or Conservative Democrats, is very difficult. You will see many of the same members appear on multiple lists, which is intended to show that there are many plausible ways these members could vote.
Carlina Rivera
An optimistic outlook of Rivera’s potential coalition:
13 / 15 votes from Progressives - Carmen De La Rosa*, Velázquez*, Sanchez*, Farias*, Krishnan*, Won, Restler, Gutiérrez*, Hudson*, Chi Ossé, Nurse*, Hanif, Joseph
6 / 14 votes from Moderates - Menin*, Dinowitz*, Ung*, Lee*, Brooks-Powers*, Hanks
2 / 3 votes from Liberals - Bottcher*, Schulman*
2 / 2 votes from Democratic Socialists - Cabán*, Avilés*
Carlina Rivera (1 vote)
(* denotes endorsement from Rivera)
Total: 24 votes
Rivera’s progressivism will make or break her Speakership campaign. Let’s start with the bad news first: Rivera is unlikely to get the support of the Bronx County Organization and will very likely need almost everyone she endorsed in June’s primary to support her bid. Given she voted to cut the NYPD budget by $1 Billion in 2020, as well as sought the endorsement of NYC-DSA in 2017, it is very unlikely that the council’s “Common Sense Caucus” members would support her - forcing her to play catchup with the council’s moderates. Rivera’s margin for error is very low, and to reach twenty-six votes and win, she’ll have to potentially rely on Charles Barron and Kristin Richardson Jordan - friendly advice, offer Barron the chairmanship for the Higher Education Committee. Rivera still has a decent chance, thanks to her defined position as the most left-leaning candidate in the race, which when combined with her strong endorsement record, could help her coalesce the progressives she needs to win. If the race tightens and candidates withdraw, Rivera could stand to benefit - I can see a scenario where Powers, Brewer(Manhattan-based liberals) or Brannan(only two endorsed by WFP) support her down the stretch - she just has to make it there first. With news breaking that Adams and Espaillat have turned on Ayala, NY1 political commentator Gerson Borrero reported that “Ayala and Rivera are talking,” an alliance that could be the perfect counterweight Rivera needs to stave off the Mayor’s encroachment.
What could make the difference between winning and losing:
If Charles Barron and Kristin Richardson Jordan back her
If 32BJ or DC37 endorses her
If Ayala drops out and endorses her
If Progressives form a united bloc behind her
If her endorsements of moderates create inroads for her
Likelihood: Difficult, but it can be done. Rivera needs a stroke of luck - such as help from another Speaker candidate or the backing of an organized labor coalition.
Justin Brannan
An optimistic outlook of Brannan’s potential coalition:
12 / 14 votes from Moderates - Menin*, Abreu*, Dinowitz*, Riley, Salamanca, Ung*, Lee*, Williams*, Mealy, Louis*, Kagan*
7 / 15 votes from Progressives - Marte, De La Rosa*, Velázquez*, Sanchez*, Farias, *Krishnan*, Hudson*
3 / 3 votes from Conservative Democrats - Gennaro, Holden, Yeger
2 / 3 votes from Liberals - Bottcher* or Shulman*, and Narcisse
Justin Brannan (1 vote)
(* denotes endorsement from Brannan)
Total: 25 votes
Brannan has a real path to twenty-six, but it won’t be easy. This coalition is entirely unreliant on socialists and Republicans, presenting a scenario where if either faction decided to back him, Brannan would be decidedly ahead with a greater margin for error. Winning the favor of the Bronx delegation will be integral to Brannan’s chances. He has a strong relationship with the incoming members, all of whom he endorsed, as well as Jamaal Bailey, and Eric Adams - who singled out Brannan and Francisco Moya as his personal picks for the position. If Brannan can coalesce the Bronx, which is entirely plausible, it will be a tremendous blow to the other candidates, and firmly establish him as the frontrunner. If other candidates drop out, Brannan’s enthusiastic and energetic speakership campaign, which has engendered much goodwill along the way, could receive a boost. Brannan’s one glaring weakness could be with Central Brooklyn progressives, as he endorsed against Chi Ossé, Sandy Nurse, Alexa Avilés, and Rita Joseph. Not to say there are hard feelings, but word travels fast, which could lead other progressives to think twice about Brannan. The question is whether or not Brannan attempts to court Republican leadership, which could either give him a bulletproof coalition thanks to an additional five votes, or alienate Democrats and cause him to flame out.
What could make the difference between winning and losing:
If the Bronx delegation lines up behind Brannan
If Eric Adams and co. give up on Moya
If Brannan lures Republicans / “Common Sense Caucus”
If Progressives show up for him instead
Likelihood: Brannan must be content with his chances, as he has a realistic path to winning the support of all the members listed above - but he must keep hustling.
Keith Powers
An optimistic outlook of Power’s potential coalition:
8 / 14 votes from Moderates - Menin*, Abreu*, Dinowitz*, Riley, Salamanca, Ung*, Lee*, Hanks
8 / 15 votes from Progressives - De La Rosa*, Velázquez*, Sanchez*, Farias*, Krishnan*, Restler*, Hudson*, Joseph*
3 / 3 votes from Conservative Democrats - Gennaro, Holden, Yeger
3 / 3 votes from Liberals - Bottcher*, Schulman* and Narcisse
Keith Powers (1 vote)
(* denotes endorsement from Powers)
Total: 23 votes
Even in my most optimistic scenario, I have Powers falling short by three votes. However, he still remains in a decent position, given that the race will likely narrow and his status as a “compromise candidate” could be an advantage. To win, Powers will likely need support from the Bronx delegation. Per a straw poll distributed to their incoming members, Powers placed inside the top three, along with Ayala and Brannan, indicating he has a degree of support that puts this scenario within the realm of possibility. Powers may be inclined to try and offset his weakness in Brooklyn by seeking support from the Republican delegation. Such an effort, if not done tactfully, could backfire. Unlike Moya, who completely alienated himself from most progressive members, Powers will need support from the left to win - an effort that should be aided by his many endorsements. Much of the strengths and weaknesses applied to Justin Brannan’s candidacy can be said about Powers, and the two are undoubtedly competing for a very similar coalition
What could make the difference between winning and losing:
If other candidates fail to crack twenty-six, members could look to Powers as an alternative
If his progressive endorsements translate to votes
If identity-focused concerns hurt his effort
If a lack of a power broker in his corner will doom his effort
If Republicans are inclined to back him
Likelihood: Powers will likely need help from another member to get over the top as a “compromise candidate”. If Rivera or Brannan drop out, Powers could be the chief beneficiary.
Diana Ayala
Path to twenty-six votes:
7 / 14 votes from Moderates - Menin*, Abreu, Dinowitz, Riley, Feliz, Salamanca, Hanks
6 / 15 votes from Progressives - Marte, De La Rosa, Velázquez*, Sanchez*, Stevens*, Farias*
Diana Ayala (1 vote)
(* denotes endorsement from Ayala)
Total: 15 votes
No candidate, not even Francisco Moya, has endured a more turbulent week than Ayala. After fighting back rumors she was leaving the race entirely, Ben Max of the Gotham Gazette reported that representative Adriano Espaillat, who had once enthusiastically backed Ayala’s speakership bid, was now pressuring her to leave the race and back the candidate of both his and Eric Adams, choosing - likely a part of Francisco Moya’s blitz. Per The Daily News, Ayala fell out of favor with Adams and his advisers for criticizing his plan to bring back the NYPD plainclothes unit, a fact she can spin to woo progressives. As of now, she remains in the race, but it appears momentum is not on her side. While Espaillat’s defection is a blow to her campaign, Ayala remains quite popular within the Bronx delegation, among progressives and moderates alike - especially Althea Stevens. However, she will likely struggle to pull in votes from Queens and Brooklyn, after not endorsing a single candidate in either borough during the primary, putting her at a significant disadvantage. As the race enters it’s home stretch, with the Mayor and his allies determined to push a male candidate for speaker on the women-majority council, the pressure on the left to coalesce around a woman candidate will only increase. In that vein, I think Carlina Rivera and Diana Ayala, both Puerto Rican members of the council’s Progressive Caucus, come together, either behind one or the other. Such a move could tip the balance of power in the race, as Rivera could bring in progressives, liberals and (maybe) even socialists with Ayala appealing to the more moderate members, a hybrid bloc that emphasizes identity, geography and ideology.
What could make the difference between winning and losing:
If she comes together with Rivera
If the Bronx pulls through for her
If she gains any traction in Queens and the Brooklyn
Likelihood: Ayala’s campaign faces a make-or-break week. She has a path to bridge many different coalitions together, especially if council members who want a woman as speaker coalesce around her as a “compromise candidate”. However, I think the outer borough members will turn to other Speaker candidates, which would significantly hinder her chances.
Adrienne Adams
An optimistic outlook of Adams’ potential coalition:
8 / 14 votes from Moderates - Dinowitz*, Riley, Salamanca, Ung*, Williams, Powers-Brooks, Mealy, Hanks
6 / 15 votes from Progressives - De La Rosa*, Velázquez*, Sanchez*, Farias*, Hudson*, Joseph
3 / 3 votes from Conservative Democrats - Gennaro, Holden, Yeger
2 / 3 votes from Liberals - Schulman* and Narcisse
Adrienne Adams (1 vote)
(* denotes endorsement from Adams)
Total: 20 votes
Adrienne Adams is in an interesting position. She suffers from her perceived closeness to both Queens County Chair Greg Meeks and Mayor-elect Eric Adams in two ways. First, her relationship with the establishment moderates in the Brooklyn and Queens County Organizations could potentially ward off incoming progressive members from supporting her Speakership bid - especially in Brooklyn. Yet, despite Adrienne Adams' consistent support, both Meeks and the future Mayor, seem unwilling(Adams) or unable(Meeks) to help her bid enough to win. As County Leader, Meeks lacks the power once wielded by Joe Crowley, as he only looks capable of delivering, at best, a handful of votes. According to media reports throughout the week, the Mayor-elect appears to have bypassed the opportunity to back Adams’ Speakership candidacy this week, and the chance to empower a councilmember from one of his largest voting blocs, Southeast Queens. Instead, Eric Adams opted to push Francisco Moya, another Queens councilmember. Adrienne Adams still has a somewhat realistic path to twenty-six votes, but the window could be closing as the race tightens down the stretch. To win, Adams likely needs to coalesce the council members from her side of the borough, like Sandra Ung, Lynn Shulman, Jim Gennaro, Nantasha Williams, and Selvena Brooks-Powers while making significant inroads in the Bronx and Brooklyn.
What could make the difference between winning and losing:
If Moya flames out
If East Queens coalesces around her
If her endorsements make headway with progressives
If organized labor backs her
If she can make inroads outside the borough - especially in the Bronx and Brooklyn
Likelihood: Adams is positioned to potentially be the outer-borough “compromise candidate”, and a credible alternative to the many candidates from Manhattan.
Gale Brewer
An optimistic outlook of Brewer’s potential coalition:
5 / 14 votes from Moderates - Menin, Abreu, Dinowitz, Kagan, Hanks
2 / 3 votes from Liberals - Bottcher, Shulman
3 / 15 votes from Progressives - Marte, De La Rosa, Joseph
3 / 3 votes from Conservative Democrats - Gennaro, Holden, Yeger
Gale Brewer (1 vote)
(* Brewer made no endorsements during the primary)
Total: 14 total
Brewer is at a disadvantage due to her late entry into the race, given the traditional importance of supporting incoming members’ campaigns - an element that could put her behind the likes of Rivera, Brannan, Powers, and Adams. Brewer’s re-election to the council this year allows her to potentially serve eight years as speaker, which could actually be a detriment to her campaign, given past members complained that Christine Quinn’s eight year tenure made the position too powerful. Ultimately, while a pitch centering Brewer’s vast experience will undoubtedly entice many members, she may struggle to make-up ground, especially in the outer boroughs.
What could make the difference between winning and losing:
If Espaillat backs her instead of Moya (he endorsed her)
If she can build a progressive base
If she can make inroads with outer borough Black, Hispanic, and Asian members
Likelihood: I think Brewer will be playing catch-up in the outer boroughs, especially with progressives, labor unions, and the county organizations, which could be too little too late.
Francisco Moya
An optimistic outlook of Moya’s potential coalition:
12 / 14 votes from Moderates - Menin, Abreu, Dinowitz, Riley, Feliz, Salamanca, Ung, Lee, Williams, Brooks-Powers, Mealy, Kagan
5 / 5 votes from Republicans - Palladino, Ariola, Vernikov, Carr, Borelli
3 / 3 votes from Conservative Democrats - Gennaro, Holden, Yeger
1 / 3 votes from Liberals - Shulman
Francisco Moya (1 vote)
(* Moya made no endorsements during the primary)
Total: 22 votes
The most polarizing candidate in the Speaker’s race had a tumultuous week. As reported by Politico and City & State, Mayor-elect Eric Adams inner circle, including Brooklyn Democratic machine lawyer Frank Carone, began blitzing members' phones on Monday attempting to build support for Moya’s candidacy. This tactic drew ire from progressive members, who accused Moya and Adams of colluding to manufacture artificial support to install one of the Mayor’s allies as Speaker - seemingly against the popular will of the council. Fortunately for those who oppose Adams’ suspect power play, Moya is notoriously disliked by his colleagues and neglected to endorse any incoming members, two strikes in a race that is often defined as a popularity contest. However, there is still a semi-plausible path for Moya, who has no qualms with courting the Republican caucus. Even if progressives shut him out, Moya could ride the collective influence of Adams, Espaillat, and organized labor to uniting most of the council’s moderates, coming awfully close to twenty-six votes. Additionally, he could receive a boost from the Queens County Democratic Party, and, while Adrienne Adams is still the preference of Chairman Greg Meeks, the county organization might be willing to help Moya down the stretch - given they have supported his campaigns for years. If Moya pulls this out, he’ll need help from Moderate East Queens members, like Sandra Ung, Linda Lee, and Selvena Brooks-Powers. Keep your eye on Meeks and Congresswoman Grace Meng - who could make or break Moya’s campaign behind-the-scenes in his home borough, if they choose to do so.
What could make the difference between winning and losing:
If Moya’s push makes him radioactive to many new members
If he can make even the smallest in roads with progressives/liberals
If the Queens or Bronx County Organization help him
If organized labor rejects him
Likelihood: Moya is attempting to thread the needle and elbow his way to the front of the line. And, while the old adage states “all publicity is good publicity”, I think Moya’s efforts upset a lot of very influential people. Being seen as the candidate of Adams’ inner circle has its limits, especially given his reputation and lack of work on behalf of other members during the primary. You have to earn the speakership, but not like this.
What coalitions do you think will emerge? Who will win, and how will they do it?
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Fantastic article and breakdown! I think Moya though will be lucky if he even votes for himself :)